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JGBs fall as Bessent's 'behind the curve' comments drive BOJ rate hike bets

JGBs fall as Bessent's 'behind the curve' comments drive BOJ rate hike bets

Economic Times2 days ago
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Nifty may swing between -11% to +4% around 25,000 amid macro uncertainty: Report
Nifty may swing between -11% to +4% around 25,000 amid macro uncertainty: Report

News18

time2 hours ago

  • News18

Nifty may swing between -11% to +4% around 25,000 amid macro uncertainty: Report

New Delhi [India], August 16 (ANI): Nifty of National Stock Exchange (NSE) may swing between -11 per cent and +4 per cent from its year-end target of 25,000, as markets navigate a range of evolving macro risks, including potential trade tariffs, shifts in the US economic outlook, and central bank policy actions by the Fed and RBI, BofA Securities said in a report. BofA points to several key risks clouding the market outlook — including potential US trade tariffs on Indian goods, a cloudy US macroeconomic scenario, delayed or insufficient fiscal and monetary policy responses, and the implications of state elections across six major Indian states, which together account for over 16 per cent of India's public subsidy and capex spending.'We keep our Nifty year-end target intact at 25k but expect Nifty to swing -11% to 4% vs this target, as markets reacts to emerging developments around key factors such as trade tariffs, US economic outlook, FED/RBI cuts, potential policy/fiscal support to offset tariff impact, etc," the report firm expects Nifty earnings growth to remain subdued, projecting 7 per cent growth in FY26 and 11 per cent in FY27, well below the Street's expectations of 9 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively. Each earnings season, it warns, could bring corrections rather than sustained firm sees a potential upside if India implements some timely legislative and fiscal reforms, possibly funded by higher RBI dividends, asset sales, fuel duties, and leveraged capex to publicly available market data, the Nifty at NSE and the BSE Sensex have not performed as expected, as both benchmarks have continued their worst losing streak in over two decades. Nifty 50 and Sensex have so far declined about three per cent, contributing to cumulative drops of approximately 12.6 per cent and 11.7 per cent, respectively, from their all-time highs set in September last year. (ANI)

Anand James sees Muthoot Finance shares rallying to Rs 3,000 after breakout on Q1 beat
Anand James sees Muthoot Finance shares rallying to Rs 3,000 after breakout on Q1 beat

Economic Times

time2 hours ago

  • Economic Times

Anand James sees Muthoot Finance shares rallying to Rs 3,000 after breakout on Q1 beat

James advises keeping downside markers at Rs 2,675 or Rs 2,635, aligning with the 20-day SMA, to manage risk while riding the uptrend. Synopsis Geojit's Anand James sees Muthoot Finance rallying to Rs 3,000 after its Q1 beat and breakout. He shares Nifty's key levels, PSU bank outlook, and trading ideas like Chalet Hotels and Aster DM. James also highlights caution zones and risk markers for traders. Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, expects Muthoot Finance to climb to Rs 3,000 after a strong Q1 performance and a breakout from its two-month sideways trend. He advises keeping downside markers at Rs 2,675 or Rs 2,635, aligning with the 20-day SMA, to manage risk while riding the uptrend. ADVERTISEMENT Directional moving indicators are still in favour of more downsides with 24000 and 23560 as potential downside supports attracting prices lower. That said, the last week saw several attempts to push higher, giving us reversal hopes. Apparently, none of those moves managed to successfully close above the 24670-720 band, the near-term congestion resistance; they did manage to bring the parabolic sar under the price, lending a positive bias. More importantly, the broader market has shown even better signs of resilience, having had the highest number of Nifty 500 constituents closing above the 10-day SMA since 24th July. Incidentally, Nifty had tumbled from the 25200 region on that day. This would be the objective we would be aiming for, should we clear above 24720 on Monday. The recent rally in the index was largely fueled by strong performance from SBI, even as private sector banks lagged. Notably, the PSU Bank index has broken above both daily and weekly Supertrend indicators, forming a bullish Marubozu candle on the weekly chart. This breakout above a declining trendline suggests a positive momentum the index is nearing a key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 7090, which could trigger some profit booking in the short term. Derivative data also hints at caution, with 43% of near out-of-the-money call options showing signs of short buildup—indicating limited bullish sentiment among traders for now. ADVERTISEMENT Despite this, the broader outlook remains optimistic. The average RSI of major PSU bank stocks hovers around 53, suggesting fair valuations and room for further upside. While a pullback near resistance is possible, bulls are expected to regroup and push the index higher in the coming sessions. Unlock 500+ Stock Recos on App A new record peak makes for an exciting case of joining the rally with eyes on Rs 858 as the nearest objective. However, four days of pushing above the upper Bollinger band certainly call for some speed bumps ahead. New entrants should see if their risk appetite allows for a stop loss near Rs 730 or Rs 680. ADVERTISEMENT We are eyeing Rs 3,000 on the stock, having broken out from the sideways band that has been prevailing since early June. Our downside marker would be near Rs 2,675 or Rs 2,635, which is near its 20-day SMA. ADVERTISEMENT Give us your top ideas for the week BuyTarget: 955 ADVERTISEMENT Stoploss: 918The stock has rebounded from a key horizontal support near 850, which also aligns with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (DSMA), suggesting a potential trend reversal. Technically, the MACD has crossed above its signal line, and the RSI has moved above its 14-day average—both indicators pointing to strengthening bullish the stock has recently broken above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, reinforcing the positive outlook. Based on this setup, the stock is expected to move toward the 955 level in the near term. Traders holding long positions should consider placing a stop-loss below 918 to safeguard against downside BuyTarget: 622 - 650Stoploss: 584The stock has recently bounced back from a key horizontal support level at 574, which also coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (DSMA), signalling a potential reversal. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed above its signal line, and the stock has also moved above the 20-day and 50-day DSMAs—strengthening the bullish technical developments suggest upward momentum, and we anticipate the stock to move toward the 622 and 650 levels over the next few weeks. Long positions should be safeguarded with a stop-loss placed below 584 to manage downside risk. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) NEXT STORY

Anand James sees Muthoot Finance shares rallying to Rs 3,000 after breakout on Q1 beat
Anand James sees Muthoot Finance shares rallying to Rs 3,000 after breakout on Q1 beat

Time of India

time3 hours ago

  • Time of India

Anand James sees Muthoot Finance shares rallying to Rs 3,000 after breakout on Q1 beat

Anand James , Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments , expects Muthoot Finance to climb to Rs 3,000 after a strong Q1 performance and a breakout from its two-month sideways trend. He advises keeping downside markers at Rs 2,675 or Rs 2,635, aligning with the 20-day SMA, to manage risk while riding the uptrend. Edited excerpts from a chat: by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo Nifty managed to break a 6-week losing streak to end over 1% higher. How would you trade the market on Monday when the market would react to the outcome of the Alaska meeting? Directional moving indicators are still in favour of more downsides with 24000 and 23560 as potential downside supports attracting prices lower. That said, the last week saw several attempts to push higher, giving us reversal hopes. Apparently, none of those moves managed to successfully close above the 24670-720 band, the near-term congestion resistance; they did manage to bring the parabolic sar under the price, lending a positive bias. More importantly, the broader market has shown even better signs of resilience, having had the highest number of Nifty 500 constituents closing above the 10-day SMA since 24th July. Incidentally, Nifty had tumbled from the 25200 region on that day. This would be the objective we would be aiming for, should we clear above 24720 on Monday. Nifty PSU Bank index outperformed Nifty Bank by a wide margin. Will this preference for PSU banks sustain in the week ahead as well? The recent rally in the index was largely fueled by strong performance from SBI, even as private sector banks lagged. Notably, the PSU Bank index has broken above both daily and weekly Supertrend indicators, forming a bullish Marubozu candle on the weekly chart. This breakout above a declining trendline suggests a positive momentum shift. Live Events However, the index is nearing a key resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 7090, which could trigger some profit booking in the short term. Derivative data also hints at caution, with 43% of near out-of-the-money call options showing signs of short buildup—indicating limited bullish sentiment among traders for now. Despite this, the broader outlook remains optimistic. The average RSI of major PSU bank stocks hovers around 53, suggesting fair valuations and room for further upside. While a pullback near resistance is possible, bulls are expected to regroup and push the index higher in the coming sessions. HBL Engineering shares were among the top gainers in the Nifty 500 pack and ended about 29% higher. Is there more steam left in the rally? A new record peak makes for an exciting case of joining the rally with eyes on Rs 858 as the nearest objective. However, four days of pushing above the upper Bollinger band certainly call for some speed bumps ahead. New entrants should see if their risk appetite allows for a stop loss near Rs 730 or Rs 680. Muthoot Finance shares also ended 10% up on Friday following target price upgrades on Q1 beat. What would be your target on the stock? We are eyeing Rs 3,000 on the stock, having broken out from the sideways band that has been prevailing since early June. Our downside marker would be near Rs 2,675 or Rs 2,635, which is near its 20-day SMA. Give us your top ideas for the week ahead. CHALET (CMP: 933) View: Buy Target: 955 Stoploss: 918 The stock has rebounded from a key horizontal support near 850, which also aligns with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (DSMA), suggesting a potential trend reversal. Technically, the MACD has crossed above its signal line, and the RSI has moved above its 14-day average—both indicators pointing to strengthening bullish momentum. Additionally, the stock has recently broken above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, reinforcing the positive outlook. Based on this setup, the stock is expected to move toward the 955 level in the near term. Traders holding long positions should consider placing a stop-loss below 918 to safeguard against downside risk. ASTERDM (CMP: 605) View: Buy Target: 622 - 650 Stoploss: 584 The stock has recently bounced back from a key horizontal support level at 574, which also coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (DSMA), signalling a potential reversal. On the daily chart, the MACD has crossed above its signal line, and the stock has also moved above the 20-day and 50-day DSMAs—strengthening the bullish outlook. These technical developments suggest upward momentum, and we anticipate the stock to move toward the 622 and 650 levels over the next few weeks. Long positions should be safeguarded with a stop-loss placed below 584 to manage downside risk. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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