Analysts advise not to stoke proxy war

Bangkok Post

6 days ago

Prominent security and foreign affairs scholars have raised red flags about the escalating Thai-Cambodian conflict, warning that it risks descending into a regional proxy war between the US and China.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, an independent national security scholar, said the Trump administration's use of tariffs as leverage in ceasefire negotiations shows the US president's broader campaign promise to act as a global peacemaker.
By linking economic tools to security matters, the US gains influence in both spheres and keeps domestic political interests in play.
Mr Panitan warned that China's early move to offer mediation had triggered a US urgency to act first. "Cambodia was smart -- they invited China early. Now Beijing's involvement has deepened the geopolitical complexity," he said.
The academic urged the Thai government to communicate more clearly on global platforms that it does not welcome external mediation but supports coordinated cooperation and called on Thai negotiators to propose a temporary military freeze, a safe zone, and Cambodian troop withdrawal as preconditions for talks.
Meanwhile. Dulyapak Preecharush, deputy director of the East Asian Studies Institute at Thammasat University, said that military survival and territorial control outweigh economic concerns for both countries. He believed that even with a ceasefire framework, fighting may continue as a means to gain a territorial advantage.
"Cambodia has deployed heavy weapons like the BM-21 rocket system, targeting civilians in violation of humanitarian norms. Thailand had no choice but to respond militarily," he said.
"Looking at other global conflicts, peace often comes only after one side suffers major losses. This situation may still end in a temporary ceasefire, not lasting peace," he said.
Both Mr Panitan and Mr Dulyapak agree that the current fighting is not yet a full-blown proxy war, though it shows early signs.
"Nationalism and territorial claims still dominate," Mr Dulyapak said of the skirmishes so far.
He concluded that if the US and China resist taking sides, they may still find a way to de-escalate. "It won't be sustainable peace, but short-term calm is still achievable."