Will Seoul's leadership change disrupt warming ties with Tokyo?
Stability ahead — but mutual public trust still missing ingredient of Korea–Japan relations
Bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan are unlikely to face a major upheaval after South Korea's new government is swiftly inaugurated next week, former vice foreign ministers from the two countries said Thursday, citing deeper public understanding and recognition of the ties' importance by the top two presidential contenders.
Still, both emphasized that rebuilding public trust is essential for forging lasting, future-oriented relations at a time when strategic cooperation — from countering North Korean threats to addressing routing regional challenges — has never been more vital.
Kenichiro Sasae, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs and former Japanese vice foreign minister, offered an optimistic outlook for Seoul-Tokyo relations, ahead of South Korea's early presidential election on June 3.
The focal point is on whether the incoming government will carry the baton forward in improving Seoul-Tokyo ties, as the two countries mark the 60th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations this year.
The liberal Democratic Party of Korea's presidential candidate, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, remains the front-runner and is widely expected to win. The outgoing administration of disgraced former President Yoon Suk Yeol of the conservative People Power Party had placed great emphasis on mending fences with Tokyo.
'Of course, if leadership changes, the details of the policy could change as well. But on that basis, I think what's most important is that, even if there is political change or instability, there should be a strong sense of mutual understanding and interaction between the peoples of both countries,' Sasae said in remarks in Japanese during a session at the Jeju Forum on Jeju Island.
'Over the last five, 10, even 20 years, I think there has been significant progress in this area,' he added, speaking at a session reflecting on the past and exploring visions for future cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo as the two countries mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations.
People, not politics, lead ties
Sasae highlighted active cultural exchanges — including pop culture and television dramas — as well as increasing people-to-people exchanges between the two countries as positive factors for bilateral ties.
The number of travelers between South Korea and Japan surpassed 12 million in 2024 — including 3.22 million Japanese visitors to Korea and 8.82 million Korean visitors to Japan — the highest figure ever recorded, according to the Korea Tourism Organization and the Japan National Tourism Organization.
'The reason I bring this up is because, especially among younger generations, I feel there's a growing optimism that even if the political climate changes, the way Japanese and Korean people feel about each other won't be so easily swayed,' Sasae said. 'There are more and more people whose attitudes aren't dictated by shifts in government or politics.'
Sasae also argued that Seoul and Tokyo should seek to strike the right balance between historical disputes stemming from Japan's colonial occupation of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945 and pending issues that require bilateral cooperation.
'I hope Korean politics will respond to this reality, and at the same time, as I mentioned earlier, I hope Japanese people will try to better understand the feelings and memories that are central to Koreans," Sasae said. 'We must continue to hold these feelings deeply in our hearts as we move forward and share them. It's about striking a balance between these two aspects.'
Consistency expected, risks still lurk
On the prospects for bilateral ties, Shin Kak-soo, deputy chair of the Seoul-based NEAR Foundation and a former vice foreign minister, said, 'Even if there is a change of government in South Korea, I don't think there's a high likelihood of major turbulence in Korea-Japan relations.'
Shin noted that the People Power Party's candidate, Kim Moon-soo, emphasizes continuity, while Lee Jae-myung stresses pragmatic diplomacy.
'So I believe there will be a certain degree of consistency maintained,' Shin said.
Yet Shin pointed out that disparities between Seoul and Tokyo in their actions on North Korea- and China-related issues — despite similar rhetoric — could pose a risk of turbulence in bilateral ties.
'What does concern me, however, is that there are significant differences between the two sides when it comes to responding to US-China tensions, addressing North Korea's nuclear threat and dealing with China's assertive diplomatic and security policies,' Shin said.
"That's why I can't be entirely optimistic about Korea-Japan relations going forward. These are potential risk factors. In this regard, it's all the more necessary for Korea and Japan to engage in deeper strategic dialogue and communication."
Shin said Seoul-Tokyo ties should not remain at the level of abstract cooperation.
'To minimize strategic uncertainty and volatility in Northeast Asia, East Asia and the Indo-Pacific, there is no alternative but for Korea and Japan to pursue strategic cooperation,' he said — a view echoed by Sasae.
On historical disputes, Shin assessed, 'most of the major fires have been put out,' but said both sides 'should work together to put out remaining sparks,' given the possibility that lingering embers could flare up again.
Public trust above new declarations
Asked about the need for a new joint declaration to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties — following the historic 2008 declaration on building a new, future-oriented partnership — both agreed that what matters most is not another document, but restoring public trust.
'The most important thing, in my view, is restoring mutual trust between the people of Korea and Japan," Shin said. "Without greater understanding and restored trust, it will be extremely difficult for both countries, as they are both democracies."
Echoing the sentiment, Sasae also underscored, 'the most important thing is to create an atmosphere where people feel, 'Yes, this is something we can achieve.'"
"Unless there is trust between both sides, such cooperation is very difficult, no matter what's written on paper. That's why I think it is essential to make efforts to build up that trust first."
dagyumji@heraldcorp.com
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