Tactical analysis: Down will need to share scoring burden around more to knock out Galway
The Gaelic Football ELO ratings, diligently kept on X/Twitter by Shane Mangan, are a manner to actually track a team's progression or regression.
ELO ratings are essentially used as a way to rank a team based on their results, factoring in variables such as match importance, home advantage and standard of opposition. It is similar to the type of system used to determine world rankings by Fifa or World Rugby.
In the past few years, there have been teams who have had large rises in the rankings in one season, such as Meath this year, with victories over higher ranked teams like Dublin and Kerry.
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Roscommon are a good example of a team who have fluctuated in the rankings in recent years, from a high of 7th to their current position of 13th.
The steady movers in the rankings are Down. Since the arrival of Conor Laverty in August 2022, Down have moved from 19th place to their current position of 12th.
They have quietly risen, usually winning the games they should win and losing the games they are expected to lose. They now face Galway (Sunday, Pairc Esler, 1.45pm) who are ranked 2nd - could a major upset be on the cards?
Down are not a team who have generated much media attention, as since Laverty's arrival they have mostly played off-Broadway. Yes, they have played in the Ulster championship, but they have yet to be a real contender in Laverty's three seasons. Their progress has been in promotion up to Division Two of the league, only to get narrowly relegated in 2025.
They landed the Tailteann Cup in 2024, beating Laois in the final, having fallen at the final hurdle in 2023 to Meath. A favourable draw in this year's round robin saw them beat Clare and narrowly overcome neighbours Louth, before falling to Monaghan in the clash for top of the group in the final round. Down have been consistently, quietly building.
What about their strengths and why do they have a chance of beating Galway? Well, it is in Newry and Laverty has tapped into Down football heritage by making it a fortress, but some of what they are doing on the field could make the difference.
While Laverty may be a Kilcoo man, who are known for their restrictive style of football, he was often the forward who showed real creativity and this Down team shows that inventiveness within a structure.
A lot of their attacking nous revolves around Danny Magill, Odhran Murdock and Pat Havern. At this current juncture, I believe Danny Magill is a nailed on All Star in terms of his explosiveness on the ball and his ability to beat men one-on-one, but also his foraging and defensive duties back the field.
Down have relied heavily on Danny Magill, Odhran Murdock and Pat Havern for scores throughout the championship.
To date in the Championship, these three men have scored 0-73, which represents 56% of their total scored (6-113). No other Down players have scored in every game, showing a lack of consistent support and a big dependency on the three attacking sparks.
In the Donegal game, where the Down attack was so often stunted, there was particular attention paid to Murdock and how he looks to break a line. Michael Langan was detailed to mark the Burren man from the outset and never gave him any opportunity to break lines, leading to his one scoring blank this season.
Donegal stopped Odhran Murdock getting on the scoresheet, with Michael Langan tagging him closely here.
It is likely that Galway have identified these three men and they will have players working in a system to shut them down.
Each of the three men offer different attributes meaning particular match-ups are required. Murdock has huge power and is hard to stop when running direct. He showed that against Louth after winning the throw-in, as he rampaged straight down the middle for a two-pointer.
Magill has really been Down's go-to man this season, showcasing a wide variety of skills. He was a key man for kickouts against Donegal, showing for the ball for Ronan Burns, as well as winnings breaks off Donegal's restarts.
Danny Magill bursts into a pocket of space to receive a short kickout against Donegal.
He has carried the ball through the middle all season and is constantly looking to set up opportunities to run at men one-on-one using his blinding pace.
Magill isolates his man to take him on one-on-one against Monaghan.
Against Louth, Magill uses a stutter step to create a gap for a more direct route to goal.
Havern has tended to operate as a distance shooter, hanging around outside the arc, picking off two-pointers and jinking inside to higher percentage shooting positions. Down are getting their shots off, as they outshot Donegal 26 shots to 25, but their shooting efficiency was only 54% on the day. They will need others to carry the load too against Galway.
Pat Havern drifts into space, and has enough time to successfully kick a two-pointer.
If Down are to take a scalp, they will need to eliminate basic errors. While Havern has been a maverick in scoring two-pointers and conjuring points from a standing start, he will need to be quicker in his use of possession. He fouled the ball technically twice against Donegal and was pulled up for a double bounce against Monaghan inside his own arc.
What will annoy Laverty about this is that there was a longer kickout option for Burns and then an immediate kick pass option not seen by Havern, after he received the kickout. Either one of these would have put Down on the attack.
Down had good options at this kickout, but Havern's double bounce led to a turnover.
While much was made of Jack McCarron picking the ball up off the ground for his goal, the cause of the goal is of more importance. It was a basic skill execution error; a low handpass to feet, that led to the Monaghan turnover inside the Down 45m line. They cannot be turning ball over in this manner.
A simple error led to Jack McCarron's second half goal for Monaghan.
Equally they have been caught with three v three breaches in their last two games, resulting in 0-3 conceded. Small margins are crucial if they are to step up another level.
Small margins are at play in their kickouts too. They have shown some innovation in the kickout zone, with a lot of high risk, high reward kickouts, eye of a needle stuff. In general it has worked well for them, but Monaghan managed to pick them off on a short kickout, leading to Mícheál Bannigan's goal.
Down were caught out by Monaghan, as a short kickout was intercepted directly before Mícheál Bannigan's goal.
Down are trying to get set up further out the field, often in a spine formation, and then break into pockets closer to their own goal. A couple of graphics emphasise this below. Down will need to be brave, but also smart, as they get ready for a Galway front eight who will look to punish anything that goes astray.
Down setting up in a spine formation for a kickout against Donegal.
They try the same kickout routine to go short against Louth here.
Louth profited at times with their second half squeeze, not allowing Down out of their own half. Down will have to transition the ball faster into the safety of the Galway half this weekend.
Louth also punished Down when short kickouts went astray.
Steady progress has been made and Down can definitely take a scalp, but they will need their key men to fire, be decisive in possession and eliminate unforced errors across the field. Down have kicked the ball infrequently in games, but used it to good effect along with intelligent inside movement for John McGeough's goal against Monaghan. They will need to use all the tools at their disposal for a win against the Tribesmen.
Down played more direct at times, with Jordan McGeough getting on the end of a kick pass and hitting the back of the net against Monaghan.
Paul O'Brien is a performance analyst with The Performance Process.
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