Kerch bridge strike shows Ukraine still has 'cards to play' – DW – 06/03/2025
06/03/2025
June 3, 2025
Both the drone strikes against Russia's air force as well as the attack on the bridge connecting Russia to the Crimea showed that Ukraine 'can't be bullied around' during peace negotiations with Russia, says Ukrainian MP Inna Sovsun.
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Int'l Business Times
2 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
Trump Flirts With Ukraine Security, With Narrow Margins
Donald Trump's newfound if vague willingness to entertain security guarantees for Ukraine could be a game-changer, but the US president's right-wing base is already warning him not to go too far. After a campaign last year spent bashing predecessor Joe Biden over billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, and Trump's public upbraiding of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February, Trump has considered promises to Kyiv to end the Russian invasion. He has ruled out ground troops as well as NATO membership, siding with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in blaming Ukraine's aspirations for the Western alliance for the February 2022 invasion. But after Trump welcomed Putin to Alaska on Friday, Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said the Russian president had agreed to a "concession" of the United States offering "Article Five-like protection" for Ukraine, referring to NATO's binding promise that an attack on one is an attack on all. Some observers doubted Witkoff's understanding of Putin, noting that Moscow publicly has insisted on guarantees for Russia. But Trump has said "we'll give them very good protection" and has spoken of providing US airpower to enforce any agreement. Little is known about what US airpower would entail, but it could support a deployment of European troops to Ukraine mulled by France and Britain. If the United States agreed to enforce control of the Ukrainian skies, it would be an "incredible green light for greater ambition" by Europeans on security, said Kristine Berzina, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund. European leaders showed striking unity and solidarity by coming together to Washington on Monday to back Zelensky in talks with Trump, she said. "For there to be a meaningful difference on the ground in Ukraine, it can't just be diplomatic alignment. It can't just be the heads of state being in lockstep for a few days at a time," she said. "Instead, they have to be ready to actually move and to show to Trump, 'We have everything ready; we just need x from you to make this work.'" Trump, however, could also authorize a much smaller air deployment, such as one focused on reconnaissance that would see limited numbers of US planes in the Ukrainian skies. "President Trump said some things in his meetings with the European leaders and Zelensky and I am betting a huge sum of money that there are people around Trump who are going to spend a lot of time walking that back," said Debra Cagan, a former senior US policymaker now at the Atlantic Council. "What I mean by that is that they're going to try a very de minimis approach to security guarantees, to do as little as possible to carry that out," she said. She said that any successful strategy needed to have components on land and air as well as sea, including keeping the crucial Black Sea ports open for Ukraine. Trump retains a strong hold on the Republican Party, but has already seen some dissent within his hard-right base, which backed him in part for his dismissive attitude to foreign involvement. Outspoken Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who earlier criticized Trump for bombing Iran, said she believed voters would be "appalled" by more support for Ukraine as they struggle with day-to-day concerns. "America is broke," she told conservative host Megyn Kelly. "At some point we have to start saying no to the rest of the world." Trump-aligned Senator Tommy Tuberville said it would be an "impossible sell" to voters still shaken by the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to start another long-term US military commitment, according to The Hill newspaper. Trump, however, has tried hard to portray the war as belonging to Biden and has spoken openly of his desire for the Nobel Peace Prize. "He could probably sell to his base that this is about America keeping peace and not about America making war," Berzina said.
DW
5 hours ago
- DW
Where could Putin and Zelenskyy meet? – DW – 08/20/2025
Germany points to Switzerland and Austria says it's ready to host despite legal questions around ICC warrants for Russia's leader. Hungary, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are other options. European leaders seem relieved their intense efforts to get Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a seat at the table where decisions about his country's future were being made have paid off. But the most difficult diplomacy now lies ahead. Among the more practical issues: Where could talks between Zelenskyy and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin actually take place? German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told DW on Wednesday there are "many good venues in Europe" for negotiations. He said Berlin has no ambitions to host though and pointed to Switzerland as somewhere that has "always been good in the past." But finding literal common ground between the US, Russia, Ukraine and possibly European states won't be easy. It's also legally complex. Putin is wanted internationally, indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes including unlawfully transferring children from occupied areas of Ukraine into Russia — a charge he rejects. That warrant makes travel a tricky endeavour for the Russian president. Technically, all of the 125 countries signed up to the ICC must arrest anyone against whom the ICC has issued a warrant, who enters their territory. Neither Russia nor the US recognize the court's jurisdiction, leading to some legal debate on whether Putin has immunity. On Wednesday, Washington advanced its ongoing diplomatic assault on the ICC by sanctioning more judges. So which states are being floated as potential hosts for peace talks? With France also citing the Swiss city of Geneva as an ideal site for peace negotiations, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said his country is "more than ready' to host talks, broadcaster RTS reports. Although Switzerland is a member of the ICC, its government says Putin would be granted "immunity' for talks. But Matthias Holvoet, a lecturer in international criminal law at the University of Amsterdam, told DW that's legally tenuous. In liberal democracies, independent judiciaries — not governments — should make decisions about such arrests, he said. "In reality, I would guess that there will be some kind of agreement between the executive and the judiciary to not execute these arrest warrants," Holvoet explained, noting that there are few consequences for ignoring ICC rules. Switzerland has a long history of neutrality, houses the United Nations, and has steered clear of both the European Union and the military alliance NATO. The Alpine country has however sanctioned Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The Swiss government says it has been involved in 30 peace processes, including talks on Armenia, Cyprus, Mozambique and Sudan. In 2021, Geneva hosted talks between Putin and former US president Joe Biden. Austria's chancellor has also offered his country's capital Vienna as a possible venue. Austria is an EU member but has been militarily neutral since the 1950s and remains outside of NATO. "Austria fancies itself as a bridge builder between east and west," Reinhard Heinisch, a professor of political science at the University of Salzburg, told DW, highlighting Vienna's long record of diplomatic deal making, from high stakes US-Russia talks during the Cold War to negotiations on Iran's nucler program this decade. As an ICC member, Vienna faces the same legal dilemma as Switzerland. But, Heinisch says, "Austria is famous for compromises," adding that "much is left to interpretation' in the country's legal code. Law professor Holvoet says it's possible to delay a warrant with an agreement in the United Nations Security Council, but he thinks that's a political non-starter. The US, meanwhile, is reportedly eyeing Hungary as a venue. The central European nation withdrew from the ICC earlier this year over its indictment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a close ally of Hungarian leader Viktor Orban. It may be easier in the sense of international law but Budapest is politically unpalatable for many Europeans. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk took to X on Wednesday to remind followers that Ukraine had already been granted ill-fated security guarantees in the Hungarian capital back in 1994. That year, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the US, Russia and the UK. "Maybe I'm superstitious but this time I would try to find another place," Tusk wrote. Hungary is also seen as the EU's chief provocateur, with its habit of blocking or watering down EU-wide sanctions on Russia. "Many in the European Union have regarded Orban as a sort of Trojan horse for Russian interests," the University of Salzburg's Heinisch explained. However, he added, Europe may struggle to push back if Trump and Putin both back Budapest as a venue. Turkish media are also speculating as to whether Zelenskyy and Putin could meet in their country, after Putin called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday. Russia's foreign ministry said Putin had thanked Erdogan for "efforts to facilitate Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul." Turkey has already hosted several lower-level rounds of talks between Kyiv and Moscow this year, resulting in prisoner exchanges. Geographically the country straddles the European and Asian continents and, like both Russia and Ukraine, has a Black Sea coastline. Turkey is a member of NATO but is outside the European Union and is not a signatory to the ICC. It has supplied weapons to Ukraine since Russia invaded but also kept up cordial ties with Moscow. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Outside of Europe, Saudi Arabia and Qatar both have track records as international negotiators and neither are members of the ICC. Officials from Ukraine, the US and Russia separately held talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah earlier this year, after which Washington agreed to share intelligence with Kyiv again. Saudi Arabia's neighbor Qatar has also mediated talks which led to Russia and Ukraine agreeing to return several children. In the past, the EU has pushed Gulf states to be more critical of Moscow, crack down on sanctions evasion, and offer more support to Ukraine.
Int'l Business Times
6 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
How Europe Tried To Speak Trump
A careful selection of cast and roles and a clear strategy to avoid deadlocks. European leaders' charm offensive on Donald Trump to foster Ukraine's cause this week was hastily arranged but followed a scripted plan, say European sources. France's Emmanuel Macron and Britain's Keir Starmer were among seven European leaders who accompanied Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House on Monday for high-stakes talks with the US President. "There's truly never been anything like it," Trump enthused in an interview Tuesday. "There's never been such a group," he told Fox News. The summit came on the heels of a meeting between Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which raised concerns in Europe that Kyiv would be pressured into making painful political and territorial concessions to Moscow. With nine leaders sitting around a long wooden table at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, the dynamics changed. Trump began the discussions by greeting his guests with a few words before the cameras. "You look great with your tan," he told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while Starmer was introduced as "my friend, doing really well". EU chief Ursula von der Leyen was told she was "probably more powerful than anyone else around this table". Often criticised for their difficulties in communicating with Trump, the Europeans were hoping to steer the famously volatile US president closer to their position on the conflict, ahead of possible peace talks with Putin. "We were well prepared and well coordinated," Merz said after the meeting. "I think that really appealed to the American president, in the sense that he noticed that we Europeans were speaking with one voice here." Preparations for the meeting began Saturday when Trump debriefed Zelensky on his Alaska talks. The US president invited his Ukrainian counterpart to the White House and opened the door for a few European leaders to tag along, according to a European official. The proposal was discussed in a series of calls between European capitals. Some were wary of exposing themselves to an ambush in the Oval Office, the kind Zelensky suffered in February during his prior, explosive visit to the White House, according to the source. A team bringing together the leaders of major European powers France, Germany, Italy and Britain was nevertheless put together and announced on Sunday morning. Finland's Alexander Stubb, who has befriended Trump playing golf and leading a country that shares a long border with Russia, was also included. A few hours later, Zelensky made a detour to Brussels and appeared alongside von der Leyen, who completed the line-up with NATO's head Mark Rutte. Each had a pre-scripted role, according to one participant at the summit. Rutte, who has long cultivated his relationship with Donald Trump, was responsible for starting discussions with Trump, the source said. Each leader then addressed a different aspect of the conflict. Von der Leyen, a mother and grandmother, for example emphasised the plight of Ukrainian children abducted by Russian forces. Whenever Trump seemed to get stuck on an issue, someone would chime in trying to present the matter from a different perspective and refocus the discussion, the source said. In a semantic shift, some avoided using the word "ceasefire" -- disliked by Trump who after meeting Putin has pivoted to seeking a full peace deal -- calling for Russia to "stop the killing" instead. Talk of security guarantees for Ukraine similarly deliberately saw the use of the vague term "presence", the source said. Whether such adjustments will help successfully resolve what promises to be an extremely difficult negotiation process on the future of Ukraine remains to be seen. On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticised Europe's "clumsy attempts to change the position of the US president" -- a possible sign that Moscow is concerned about their impact. Finland's Alexander Stubb (centre), who has befriended Trump playing golf, was part of the European delegation AFP Sergei Lavrov criticised Europe's 'clumsy attempts to change the position of the US president' AFP
