Don't make Zelensky the Beneš of 2025
What does fate have in store for Ukraine's president? The circumstances may be different but the dynamics are similar: an aggressor is demanding part of his country as the price for peace and a foreign power is brokering the outcome.
If, as is now expected, Mr Trump insists that Ukraine give up much of Donetsk in exchange for a cessation of hostilities on other fronts, Mr Zelensky simply cannot accept it. The sacrifices his people have made in three and a half years of conflict since the Russian invasion make such a capitulation impossible. Even with US-backed security guarantees it is not an outcome Mr Zelensky can possibly go along with, not least because past promises of Ukraine's territorial integrity, dating back to 1994, have not been fulfilled.
Nonetheless, like Beneš, he may have no choice but to agree and then step aside to let someone else manage the aftermath. If the American president is intent on giving Vladimir Putin the spoils of his war, he is presumably prepared to withdraw support to Ukraine if Kyiv continues the fight.
European leaders, despite a great show of diplomatic support for President Zelensky – including accompanying him to Washington to prevent the browbeating he received before – are not committed enough to go it alone without US backing.
This, then, is the prospect facing the Ukrainian leader as he prepares to meet an American president who is seemingly unable to hold to a consistent position on how peace can be achieved.
For a while it appeared that he favoured tougher action against Moscow and its allies to demonstrate the price to be paid for its continued onslaught. But that prospect disappeared with the summit in Alaska when the Russian leader received the red-carpet treatment and took his place back on the world stage.
Perhaps Mr Trump will change his mind again and be persuaded that a tighter squeeze needs to be applied to Russia. But, judging by the briefings in Washington, that is unlikely. Mr Zelensky faces being cast as the Edvard Beneš of today. Everyone knows what happened next.
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The Guardian
an hour ago
- The Guardian
Ukraine war live: ‘Russia must end this war,' Zelenskyy says as he arrives in Washington for Trump talks
Update: Date: 2025-08-18T05:13:29.000Z Title: Opening summary Content: Welcome to our live coverage of the war in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declared 'Russia must end this war' as he arrived in Washington DC ahead of a crucial talks with Donald Trump over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A host of European leaders will join Zelenskyy on Monday for the summit as they seek to provide a counterpoint to Vladimir Putin's arguments following his talks with the US president on Friday. The leaders – British prime minister Keir Starmer, French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and Finnish president Alexander Stubb – cleared their diaries to fly to the US at short notice, which is seen as a measure of how alarmed they were by Friday's Trump-Putin summit in Anchorage. After the Alaska talks Trump reportedly endorsed the Kremlin's plan to end the war in Ukraine, including Kyiv giving up territory that Russia has been unable to seize and no ceasefire until a final deal has been agreed. Zelenskyy said in a post on X as he arrived in Washington late on Sunday that he was grateful to Trump for the invitation and 'we all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably'. He also said that 'peace must be lasting'. 'Russia must end this war, which it itself started,' Zelenskyy said. 'And I hope that our joint strength with America, with our European friends, will force Russia into a real peace.' Here are some of the latest developments: Zelenskyy met European leaders in Brussels earlier on Sunday and reiterated Ukraine's stance on land swaps, saying on X: 'Ukraine's constitution makes it impossible to give up or trade land. Since the territorial issue is so important, it should be discussed only by the leaders of Ukraine and Russia at the trilateral – Ukraine, the US, Russia. So far, Russia gives no sign this will happen, and if Russia refuses, new sanctions must follow.' Ahead of Monday's peace talks in the US, Emmanuel Macron said that in order to have a 'lasting peace deal for Ukraine, Ukraine needs a strong army'. He added that European allies want 'Ukraine's territorial integrity to be respected' and that 'Ukraine must be represented in any talks on Ukraine's future'. The French president also said that 'our goal for tomorrow's talks is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies'. The Washington talks will also be attended by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and Nato's secretary general, Mark Rutte. Zelenskyy has hailed the decision to offer security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a peace deal as he prepared to meet Trump. 'Security guarantees, as a result of our joint work, must really be very practical, delivering protection on land, in the air and at sea, and must be developed with Europe's participation,' the Ukrainian president said. In announcing his visit to Washington, Keir Starmer praised Trump for his 'efforts to end Russia's illegal war in Ukraine'. At the same time, the British PM reasserted Europe's red lines, saying the 'path to peace' could not be decided without Zelenskyy and that Russia should be 'squeezed' with further sanctions. Starmer has deliberately sought to position himself as a leader who can get along with Trump while consistently stressing the red lines over any peace plan. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said Russia and Ukraine were both 'going to have to make concessions' for there to be a peaceful resolution to the war. In interviews on Sunday Rubio said the talks in Alaska had 'made progress in the sense that we identified potential areas of agreement – but there remains some big areas of disagreement'. 'We're still a long ways off,' Rubio added. 'We're not at the precipice of a peace agreement. We're not at the edge of one. But I do think progress was made and towards one.' He declined to go into specific areas of agreement or disagreement. Trump's Ukraine envoy, Steve Witkoff, said Putin had agreed that the US and European allies could offer Ukraine a Nato-style, 'Article 5-like' security guarantee as part of an eventual deal to end the war. Witkoff added that Russia had agreed to unspecified concessions on five Ukrainian regions central to the war, particularly the eastern Donetsk province. 'We agreed to robust security guarantees that I would describe as gamechanging,' he said. Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's envoy to international organisations in Vienna, said early on Monday that Russia agreed that any future peace agreement must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but added that Russia 'has equal right to expect that Moscow will also get efficient security guarantees'. European Union council president Antonio Costa said he 'welcomed the United States' willingness to participate in providing security guarantees to Ukraine'. He said: 'Transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a sustainable peace in Ukraine.'
BBC News
an hour ago
- BBC News
Trump's trade war puts US love for Scottish goods to the test
"Shortbread is America's second favourite cookie, after chocolate chip," says Anne Robinson, owner of Scottish Gourmet USA, a small business in North Carolina. She imports Scottish produce and sells it at her store in Greensboro and online. "But how much will consumers pay for their little pleasures?"Along with Andrew Hamilton, her Scottish husband, she's about to find out. They are putting up prices, partly due to the 10% tariff on imports into the US from are other reasons, including the weakened US dollar against the British pound, higher healthcare costs for her employees and higher employer costs for her suppliers of "bangers, bacon, pies, tablet, kippers, bannocks, cheese, shortbread, fudge, mugs and more"."We sell the luxury brands of shortbread, along with Walker's, the world's biggest maker of shortbread," Anne says. "All the prices are higher today than a year ago because butter costs have skyrocketed. Now add the tariff and every box of cookies has gone up by at least $1."At some point, consumers will not buy a box of Scottish shortbread at $10 when American-made Lorna Doone shortbread sells for $5-6." That may make Donald Trump's point for him. He wants to use tariffs to discourage Americans from importing, replacing those choices with American could put jobs at risk in Aberlour on Speyside, for instance, where Walker's makes shortbread in vast quantities, much of it for export, employing up to 1,700 people in peak pre-Christmas could boost jobs in the US bakeries where Lorna Doone Shortbread cookies are made by snacks goliath are the more straightforward effects of tariffs - the taxes paid by importers as goods arrive in the country imposing the charge, usually as a percentage of its with such uncertainty around tariffs because of Donald Trump's capricious policy-making, we've only recently begun to get an idea of the companies are beginning to put a price on US tariffs, led by car makers. Toyota says it looks like a full-year hit of £7.1bn. Honda, also facing 15% tariffs on Japanese-made cars being sold into the US, says the cost will be more than £ auto-makers are hard hit too, because they are international businesses and many of their vehicles have parts manufactured across national boundaries, including those with Canada and Motors expects the rise in tariffs to cost it between £3bn and £4bn annually. Ford forecasts tariffs will cost it £1.5bn this year. Caterpillar, maker of construction machinery, has an estimate of £ Americans are beginning to assess the impact on the goods they buy. Importers have absorbed most of the costs until have been surprised that they have not been passing costs on in prices, and pushing up inflation, but they continue to expect that will early sign is that wholesale prices took a big jump last month – up by 0.9% when the expectation was of only 0.2%. The next signs could come from the big retail chains led by Walmart, reporting to the markets this from Brazil will carry a 50% tariff. Cars from Germany, as with other EU exports of food and machinery, face a 15% charge at the point of import. Watches, cheese and gold from Switzerland will carry a 39% US smartphones are made in India, which is seeing a 25% tariff imposed on exports to the USA, and that could be doubled within three months as punishment for India buying Russian high rates could be negotiated down, if Brazil's or India's leaders are willing to plead. Neither sounds like they are. Along with South Africa, there could be a new alliance of large economies which are unwilling to accept US tariffs without Trump is yet to meet with China's leadership to discuss summit with Russia's President Putin in Alaska on Friday left yet more gone into the meeting threatening tougher measures against Russia, to punish it for aggression in Ukraine, as well as further tariffs on those, such as India, who buy goods from Russia, the US president has not commented on UK came off relatively lightly from the trade deals struck so far, with the 10% baseline tariff applied across the board, but uncertainty about steel and pharmaceuticals remains.A bottle of Scotch whisky will carry that 10% tariff. Diageo, owner of Johnnie Walker and several well-known single malts while also a distiller of spirits within the US, estimates the annual cost at £150m. 'We should be thriving, instead we're struggling' The risk for Americans is, first, that imported goods will go up in price and, second, that components for US manufacturers will become more expensive, pushing up prices of goods completed in the third effect is expected to be that such trade barriers act as an invitation to US producers to put up prices simply because they can. They are protected from overseas competition.A fourth impact could be that when Americans travel overseas, as both president and vice-president have been in doing in Scotland, the weakened dollar makes that so-called "invisible export" more expensive for them - by around 10% in the case of the UK than it was last Americans are employed in selling imported goods, their businesses and jobs are on the Robinson at Scottish Gourmet USA says: "Tariffs are a tax that benefits no-one. There is no service, no government program, nothing except this added cost."These are taxes on US companies that import anything - hurting small business and large, making planning and pricing nearly impossible as the possible tariffs change frequently."She lists the various opportunities being lost because of the Trump policy: "We are holding off hiring, raising wages for deserving employees, possible expansion of our warehouse space and many other possible purchases that could help our business grow because of the tariffs and resulting fall in the value of the dollar. "When we should be thriving, instead we are struggling." One response for US trading partners is to look elsewhere. The UK has reason to get closer again to the European Union. After years of delays and obstacles in talks between the EU and India, the Trump effect seemed to spark momentum into its talks with post-Brexit faces the biggest hit from tariffs, as its economy has become so integrated, so it is looking to a future with a lot less US in there's another economic effect from countries which have lost markets in the world's biggest economy, leaving them with surplus product and secondary effect will be felt as goods are re-directed into alternative markets. With steel already established as the Chinese export that was top of the list of US targets for tariffs, other countries, including the UK, have taken steps to stop China dumping its excess steel in other markets at prices that undercut domestic steel already established as the Chinese export that was top of the list of US targets for tariffs, other countries including the UK have taken steps to stop China dumping its excess steel in other markets at prices that undercut domestic many of us buy steel directly, so we will not feel the impact directly. We do buy salmon, however, and that is already seeing the effects of markets being distorted and trade has a premium product that sells into the US market. The trade figures for the first half of 2025, released on Thursday, showed exports to the US more than doubled since last £190m exports in six months, that puts US imports close to those of France, the biggest importer of Scottish salmon. However, that may be a temporary distortion of trade patterns, front-loading imports for freezing ahead of tariffs being a much longer shelf-life, Scotch whisky exporters have shifted stock into the US since Donald Trump's election victory last November. The trade figures released on Thursday showed a big surge across categories of goods in the first quarter of the year, and then a big slump since salmon exporters face that 10% US tariff, while Norway faces one at 15%. So Scottish salmon gets an advantage over Norwegian, a differential that will also distort other US produces its own salmon, but not much of the Atlantic species. Half of its consumption of that has come from a 10% tariff on this, the trade body for the Chilean aquaculture industry forecasts a trade loss of more than £1bn. What does this mean for Scotland? According to a well-placed source in the Scottish salmon industry, Chile, Canada and Norway are looking to "redirect more product into lower-tariff export markets like the EU to maintain sales"."This shift is already having an impact," they say. "Market studies have highlighted how other producing countries are treating Europe and parts of Asia as a 'safe haven' for diverted supply, which is adding to volumes in the European market."An industry analyst at Norwegian seafood data firm Kontali, Philip Scrase, recently published a note about salmon prospects, with production set to the US, he observed the effect of tariffs could be said: "The move may hurt US seafood processors and consumers more than it helps domestic producers, particularly in the retail sector, where price sensitivity is high, and substitutes are limited."Salmon producers' loss of US markets could be the European consumers' gain, Mr Scrase says, as an increased supply from Chile pushes down reporting from the seafood trade media pointed to sharply reduced prices for salmon from the dominant producer, Norway, at the same time as the sector expected a big 2025 harvest due to improved fish survival consequence is a rush to freeze as much salmon as possible. Another is that some are reported as having to sell at less than it cost to is explicitly why Salmon Scotland, the trade body, is stepping up its efforts to promote the third of Scottish salmon exports to France that qualify for the prestigious Label Rouge, a French marketing kitemark to signify food Scottish government is matching Salmon Scotland's £50,000 budget for the the consequences of this tariff war are being felt far from trade with the US, and will take time to feed through to new price levels in North Carolina and Scottish Gourmet USA, Anne Robinson remains hopeful."My fingers are crossed in the hopes that our loyal customers will continue to buy their favourite cookies, candy, jam or haggis," she says.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Oil prices steady as Russia supply concerns ease after Trump-Putin meet
SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely unchanged on Monday after a drop in early trade, as the United States exerted no further pressure on Russia to end the Ukraine war through measures to disrupt its oil exports following a meeting of the leaders of both nations. Brent crude futures dropped 6 cents, or 0.09%, to $65.79 a barrel by 0342 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.82 a barrel, up 2 cents, or 0.03%. U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday and emerged more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first. Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday to strike a quick peace deal to end Europe's deadliest war in 80 years. On Friday, Trump said he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil but might have to "in two or three weeks", cooling concerns about a disruption in Russian supply. "A non-outcome was largely priced in, the market remains in wait-and-see, more in a bearish context, if more Russian barrels can arrive into the global crude supply pool should hostilities end in Ukraine," said independent energy analyst Gaurav Sharma. China, the world's biggest oil importer, is the largest buyer of Russian oil, followed by India. "What was primarily in play were the secondary tariffs targeting the key importers of Russian energy, and President Trump has indeed indicated that he will pause pursuing incremental action on this front, at least for China," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note. "The status quo remains largely intact for now," Croft said, adding that Moscow would not walk back territorial demands while Ukraine and some European leaders would balk at the land-for-peace deal. Investors are also watching for clues from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at this week's Jackson Hole meeting regarding the path of interest rate cuts that could boost stocks to further records. "It's likely he will remain noncommittal and data-dependent, especially with one more payroll and Consumer Price Index (CPI) report before the September 17 FOMC meeting," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
