How Trump's trade war could put John Thune in a very uncomfortable spot

Politico

31-01-2025

No congressional leader is more at risk of getting caught in the crossfire of Donald Trump's coming trade wars than Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
Trump said Thursday he's ready to slap sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as Saturday, which will force the South Dakota Republican to decide whether he will use his leadership perch to push back on a tactic that has given him and other agriculture-state GOP lawmakers heartburn or align himself with a burgeoning bloc of MAGA-tinged protectionists in Congress.
Thune knows the stakes all too well: Retaliatory tariffs during Trump's 2018 trade war with China crippled South Dakota's agriculture-dependent economy — which relies on the billions of dollars worth of soybeans, corn, beef and other agricultural products it exports abroad every year, plus more in manufactured goods.
Farmers there are still reeling from their losses, and a standoff with Mexico and Canada — which are now American farmers' two largest export markets — would be devastating. U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico are expected to reach $29.9 billion this fiscal year and a record-high $29.2 billion to Canada, with China further behind, according to the Agriculture Department.
Other farm-state lawmakers and the agriculture industry are quietly counting on Thune to push back against Trump charging into another wave of catastrophic trade wars. But that's a tall order.
Thune, in keeping with his typically even-keeled approach to conflict, said in a brief interview that tariffs could be an 'effective tool' when used in a 'targeted and a selective way.' He also made reference to the ongoing debate within his party about the blanket levies that Trump has proposed.
'Obviously the president is somebody who sees great value in the use of tariffs as a tool and we'll have, I'm sure, lots of conversations,' he said. 'People up here have different views about how and when to use them but I see value when they are used in a targeted way.'
The president's new trade threats are the latest test Trump has thrown at Thune during his early weeks as top GOP leader. The two men have significantly improved their relationship over the past year, with Trump publicly and privately praising Thune — a far cry from the final days of 2020 when he was actively declaring Thune's 'political career over.'
But Trump is also pressuring Thune to more quickly confirm Cabinet nominees — using recess appointments, if necessary. And Trump undercut Thune's plans to split up the GOP's sweeping tax, border and energy package by instead backing Speaker Mike Johnson's plan for 'one big, beautiful bill' — then leaving the door open to two.
Fellow GOP senators say Thune appears to be playing ball with the White House so far and hasn't laid out any larger internal strategy on tariffs that would indicate a tip-of-the-spear approach to opposing Trump on sweeping levies. And he's been careful not to draw any hard red lines publicly, even as he works behind the scenes.
The strategy appears to be part of a careful approach that Thune has adopted on a range of issues: Be careful not to publicly criticize the president, which would likely only antagonize him, or overpromise what can get through the Senate. Instead, communicate quietly and frankly with the administration about what he and other Republicans can tolerate.
This past weekend, after Trump threatened Colombia with steep tariffs over blocked deportation flights Sunday, a bevy of congressional Republicans scrambled to provide backup.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and three other GOP lawmakers rushed to write legislation doubling down on Trump's actions. 'Colombia and all nations should be on notice,' Johnson added in an X post.
But Thune said nothing publicly until a POLITICO reporter asked him about the situation a day later.
Trump is eager to threaten economic warfare as he tries to force concessions from Canada and Mexico — he cited drug trafficking and trade deficits in his comments Thursday. But even the risk of new levies can come at a cost to American farmers, as ag-state lawmakers know well.
'Most of us aren't, just as a matter of personality, tariff guys,' said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who added that he did not see Congress standing in Trump's way.
'We have seen how successful he's been with using them as a negotiating tool,' he said, adding that Trump 'wants to invoke the tariffs at least for a little while. He's not in an incremental mood right now.'
In the past, business-friendly Republicans on Capitol Hill have been leery of leveraging tariffs in non-trade disputes with foreign countries. But members of Thune's leadership team — including Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) — backed Trump's tariff threat against Colombia over illegal immigration.
'I think the president has a strategy, and it's working,' Capito said about the Colombia threat.
But for Thune and other ag-state Republicans, targeting Canada and Mexico is magnitudes more sensitive. Even Johnson, while vowing that there would be ' no daylight ' between Congress and Trump over his tariff threats over immigration, predicted that Trump won't levy tariffs across 'whole countries or whole industries.'
Thune has hinted at his own personal discomfort, telling reporters in the Capitol recently that he's 'not a big fan of, you know, across-the-board, universal, uniform tariffs, because in some cases, you know, the impact it has on the ag economy, which is critical to our state.'
Thune's comments are similar to those he made in an interview with POLITICO last year, where he noted that he 'pushed back' when broad tariffs were proposed during Trump's first term and vowed that if in the future 'it's a sort of uniform, across-the-board, just tariffs on everything — then yeah, we're going to have some serious conversations about that.'
But some congressional Republicans also acknowledge there is little they can do to stand in Trump's way, given the broad presidential authority over global trade. It's up to the negotiating countries, not Congress, to step in and work out a solution, they argue.
Several GOP lawmakers are even already privately drafting legislation to help Trump formally enact levies against Canada and Mexico, which could put additional pressure on Thune — even if the bills are just MAGA-aligned messaging tactics.
Farm-state Republicans, meanwhile, have been quietly bracing for weeks now for Trump to follow through on his trade threats on Canada and Mexico in the coming days — and potentially make some new ones.