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Exclusive: Thailand weighs car trade-in scheme to revive sector, officials say

Exclusive: Thailand weighs car trade-in scheme to revive sector, officials say

Reuters27-02-2025

BANGKOK, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Thailand is in early discussions with car makers to introduce a car trade-in and scrapping scheme in a bid to revive an industry hit by its biggest crisis in decades, three industry officials and two sources said.
Output in the Southeast Asian automobile hub, besieged by a flood of new EVs, has plummeted for more than a year, following a slowdown in exports and weak domestic sales, while tighter credit at a time of soaring household debt hit vehicle buying.
The discussions are in early stages and have not previously been reported. The scheme would see consumers trade in old vehicles in exchange for a discount on their next vehicle purchase, with traded-in vehicles scrapped, the officials said.
"Car makers are pushing hard for this because they want to sell cars," Sompol Tanadumrongsak, president of the Thai Auto-Parts Manufacturers Association, told Reuters, adding that a 10-year age threshold was being considered for scrapped vehicles.
The association is among industry groups that holds monthly meetings with government agencies, including the investment board and the industry ministry.
Officials at Thailand's industry ministry did not respond to telephone calls from Reuters to seek comment, however.
Auto production in Thailand fell a tenth last year to a four-year low, with domestic sales and exports falling 26% and 8.8%, respectively. Production fell in January for an 18th consecutive month, plunging more than 24% on a yearly basis.
The industry, which accounts for 10% of GDP, wants to revive sales amid a sluggish economy and disruption caused by Chinese EV makers such as BYD and Great Wall Motors which have poured more than $3 billion into facilities in Thailand.
Those factories are pumping out new cars and slashing prices, challenging the dominance of Japanese auto makers such as Toyota (7267.T), opens new tab and Honda (7267.T), opens new tab, making a trade-in scheme more attractive for buyers.
"There have been discussions about the measure but it has not been finalised yet," said Surapong Paisitpattanapong, a spokesperson for the automotive division of the Federation of Thai Industries, which sprawls across 47 sectors.
"One reason is because it involves many agencies."
Another aspect of the talks considered the age of cars to be scrapped, said a government source, who sought anonymity.
"There will be good news soon," added the source. "We have discussed the details. There has been discussion about the end of life of the cars."
Toyota, the market leader in Thailand, is pushing hard for the car scrapping proposal, added the government source and a person in the auto industry familiar with the matter, who also sought anonymity as the issue is a sensitive one.
"Toyota stands to benefit through their scrapping subsidiary, Green Metals," said the industry source, adding that issues from financing to recycling infrastructure and management still needed to be hammered out.
Toyota did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the proposal and the role of Green Metals.
The industry ministry and Toyota held meetings last week on ways to stimulate the Thai auto sector, the government said in a statement, but did not mention a scrapping scheme.
"There is a proposal from the Federation of Thai Industries and the private sector, but it has not reached the finance ministry yet," Kulaya Tantitemit, head of the excise department, which oversees taxes, told Reuters.
Early discussions put the burden of funding and managing the scrapping scheme on the auto companies, said Sompol, adding that sellers of new cars were envisaged to be responsible for managing the scrap.
A car scrapping scheme for old cars to be phased out would create new investments and jobs in Thailand, as it has few auto recycling plants such as that owned by Toyota, said Suwit Chobpradu, vice president of Thailand's Used Car Association.
"This would stimulate the market more than any policy," he added.

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Pakistan likely to hike defence spending but slash overall budget in 2025-26

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TRADING DAY London calling, stocks crawling higher
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ORLANDO, Florida, June 9 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty and shaky economic data continue to cloud the near-term outlook for world growth, but they remain on the back burner for now as investors kick off the week by pushing global stock markets higher. In my column today I look at why the dollar has depreciated significantly this year regardless of how U.S. stocks and bonds have performed. The main reason? Hedging. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves London calling, stocks crawling higher It was a fairly quiet start to the week across global markets on Monday, with strong equity gains in Asia followed by a grind higher on Wall Street which lifted the MSCI World index to a fresh record high. The main areas of focus for investors were China's economic 'data dump' for May, then the high-level U.S.-China trade talks in London. The two are connected - the U.S. is a less important market for China than it used to be, underscored in May's trade figures from Beijing and reflected in the lack of concrete progress from the negotiations in London. China's total exports rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier but this masks a huge split between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Exports to the U.S. plunged 34.4% year-on-year in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020 just before the pandemic, while exports to the rest of the world rose 11.4%. Monthly data are volatile, of course, and May's figures were also distorted by tariffs. Still, U.S.-bound shipments worth $28.8 billion last month were just 9% of the total $316 billion. Economist Phil Suttle notes that is less than half the average share in the decade leading up to President Donald Trump's first trade war. The London talks are expected to continue on Tuesday. But as was the case following Trump's telephone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, there is little indication of a significant breakthrough, far less China bending to U.S. demands. "U.S. Treasury Secretaries who live in unbalanced economies might not want to throw barbs such as the 'most unbalanced in modern history' at China without first looking at some data," Suttle wrote on Monday. "The choice to fight an opponent should be conditioned on a clear-headed view of its strengths and weaknesses. The U.S. has done a marvelous job of (once again) deluding itself on this front," Suttle added. Still, divisions between the two countries and the threat to global supply chains are proving no barrier to rising stock markets. Japan's Nikkei and the MSCI emerging and Asia ex-Japan indexes rose around 1%, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks rose nearly 3%, and Wall Street closed in the green. Meanwhile, the dollar's trend this year of declining despite U.S. stocks and bonds rising was on full display on Monday. Wall Street closed slightly higher and Treasury yields fell as much as 5 basis points at the short end of the curve, yet the dollar slipped. Many analysts say one of the main reasons for this is non-U.S. investor hedging - more on that below. Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge All three major U.S. asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why. Wall Street's three main indices and the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury index are all slightly higher for the year to date, despite the post-'Liberation Day' volatility, while the dollar has steadily ground lower, losing around 10% of its value against a basket of major currencies and breaking long-standing correlations along the way. The dollar was perhaps primed for a fall. It's easy to forget, but only a few months ago the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative was alive and well, and the dollar scaling heights rarely seen in the past two decades. But that narrative has evaporated, as U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial economic policies and isolationist posture on the global stage have made investors reconsider their exposure to U.S. assets. But why is the dollar feeling the burn more than stocks or bonds? Non-U.S. investors often protect themselves against sharp currency fluctuations via the forward, futures or options markets. The difference now is that the risk premium being built into U.S. assets is pushing them – especially equity holders – to hedge their dollar exposure more than they have in the past. Foreign investors have long hedged their bond exposure, with dollar hedge ratios traditionally around 70% to 100%, according to Morgan Stanley, as currency moves can easily wipe out modest bond returns. But non-U.S. equity investors have been much more loath to pay for protection, with dollar hedge ratios averaging between 10% and 30%. This is partly because the dollar was traditionally seen as a 'natural' hedge against stock market exposure, as it would typically rise in 'risk off' periods when stocks fell. The dollar would also normally appreciate when the U.S. economy and markets were thriving – the so-called 'Dollar Smile' – giving an additional boost to U.S. equity returns in good times. A good barometer of global 'real money' investors' view on the dollar is how willing foreign pension and insurance funds are to hedge their dollar-denominated assets. Recent data on Danish funds' currency hedging is revealing. Danish funds' U.S. asset hedge ratio surged to around 75% from around 65% between February and April. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, that 10 percentage point rise is the largest two-month increase in over a decade. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar shifts are taking place across Scandinavia, the euro zone and Canada, regions where dollar exposure is also high. The $266 billion Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reported a $6.9 billion foreign currency gain last year, mainly due to the stronger dollar. Unless the fund has increased its hedging ratio this year, it will be sitting on huge foreign currency losses. "Investors had embraced U.S. exceptionalism and were overweight U.S. assets. But now, investors are increasing their hedging," says Sophia Drossos, economist and strategist at the hedge fund Point72. And there is a lot of dollar exposure to hedge. At the end of March foreign investors held $33 trillion of U.S. securities, with $18.4 trillion in equities and $14.6 trillion in debt instruments. The dollar's malaise has upended its traditional relationships with stocks and bonds. Its generally negative correlation with stocks has reversed, as has the usually positive correlation with bonds. The divergence with Treasuries has gained more attention, with the dollar diving as yields have risen. But as Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos notes, the correlation breakdown with stocks is "very unusual". When Wall Street has fallen this year the dollar has fallen too, but at a much faster pace. And when Wall Street has risen the dollar has also bounced, but only slightly. This has led to the strongest positive correlation between the dollar and S&P 500 in years, though that's a bit deceptive, as the dollar is sharply down on the year while stocks are mildly stronger. Of course, what we could be seeing is simply a rebalancing. Saravelos estimates that global fixed income and equity managers' dollar exposure was at near record-high levels in the run-up to the recent trade war. This was a "cyclical" phenomenon over the last couple of years rather than a deep-rooted structural one based on fundamentals, meaning it could be reversed relatively quickly. But, regardless, the dollar's hedging headwind seems likely to persist. "Given the size of foreign holdings of both stocks and bonds, even a modest uptick in hedge ratios could prove a considerable FX flow," Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team wrote last month. "As long as uncertainty and volatility persist, we think that hedge ratios are likely to rise as investors ride out the storm." What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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