Trump's ‘Two Weeks' Pause on Iran Strikes Comes With High Stakes

Mint

4 hours ago

President Donald Trump often suggests that something will happen in 'two weeks' when he's looking to buy himself some time. But his latest two-weeks declaration — on possible US military strikes in Iran — comes with unusually high stakes.
The pause, after days of bellicose rhetoric and social posts about evacuating Tehran, rattled markets in the region, triggered new threats from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, led Iranian officials to call the US Israel's 'partner in crime' and left Israel in a holding pattern.
Because by now the world knows that Trump's 'two weeks' could mean two days, two months or never, his delay this time only fed the uncertainty. Regional equities slid on Friday, despite a sustained surge in oil prices that would typically support sentiment in Gulf economies.
Israel — a US ally with particularly close ties to Trump — has been placed in a holding pattern. It launched its attacks arguing that Iran's nuclear capabilities must be neutralized. But experts say it will be hard for Israel to destroy Iran's most fortified uranium enrichment facility, the Fordow plant, without the bunker-busting bombs only the US has.
The US military launched several long-range stealth B-2 bombers — the kind that could carry the 30,000-pound bombs — from Missouri over the Pacific, according to media reports, possibly positioning them in case of a strike. The Wall Street Journal cited officials saying that no order has been given to ready an operation.
'For the Israelis it does put them in a bind,' said Illan Goldenberg, a former White House and Pentagon official who worked on Iran issues. 'They'd prefer this not go on for weeks and months.'
'My guess is they have some kind of option for Fordow, but it's not as good as our option for Fordow,' said Goldenberg, a senior vice president at J Street, a liberal Israel lobbying group focused on creating a two-state solution. The Israelis 'put themselves in this limbo by launching a war and putting their faith in Donald Trump to come and finish the job.'
Israeli officials told the White House in what was described as a tense phone call on Thursday that two weeks is too long to wait for Iran to reach a deal to dismantle its nuclear program, Reuters reported Saturday.
Iran, meanwhile, could seek to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude flows. Even without a direct move by Tehran, nearly 1,000 vessels daily have reported GPS jamming near the narrow passage separating Iran from its Arab neighbors, according to the French naval liaison body MICA Center.
The Houthis, an Iran-backed militia in Yemen, threatened on Saturday to target US vessels and battleships if the US joins Israeli attacks. The conflict started June 13 when Israel, saying it had evidence that Iran was close to achieving nuclear weapons capability, launched a series of missile attacks on Iran, which has returned missile attacks.
Keeping the world guessing
Trump for years has had a penchant for setting two-week deadlines, sometimes following through and at other times missing them or never acting at all, making 'within two weeks' a stock phrase for pending decisions in both his White House terms.
On Friday, Trump kept the world guessing on his next steps. Speaking to reporters in New Jersey, he called himself a 'peacemaker' and dismissed the idea of sending in ground troops. He both suggested he wanted a diplomatic path and said he might support a ceasefire, but also kept a military threat alive, describing the two-week time frame as a maximum. 'I'm giving them a period of time,' he declared.
Israel has pressed Trump to offer support, but in return Trump has only offered a run of tough commentary. European diplomats have stepped in to try to de-escalate tensions by talking to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi with little to show for it but a dismissive remark from Trump.
Trump won the presidency twice promising not to get the US involved in the kinds of intractable Middle East wars he savaged his predecessors over. His most fervent MAGA supporters have been urging him publicly and privately to avoid military action in keeping with his 'America First' position.
Since Israel's assault on Iran started, Israelis have faced hundreds of ballistic missiles and 1,000 drone attacks launched by Tehran. Iran has lost a slew of military officials, with more than 400 people dead and several nuclear facilities and related infrastructure destroyed or damaged.
Israel, which has been waging a military campaign in Gaza since Hamas militants attacked the country on Oct. 7, 2023, may struggle to sustain a war against Tehran. The US is already working to replenish Israel's defenses as they deplete their stock of interceptors.
And Israeli officials say Trump's pause means the war will last even longer. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the Jewish state will 'achieve all of our objectives,' including rendering Fordow inoperable.
Trump cited hopes for negotiations as part of his aim for the 'two-week' pause. But Iranians refuse to negotiate with the US while an Israeli assault continues, and the talks with European leaders appeared to make little progress.
Trump expressed skepticism about those efforts Friday, saying: 'Iran doesn't want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help them.' Yet Iran refuses to talk to the US while the Israeli assault continues.
Peter Krause, a Boston College professor who specializes in Middle Eastern politics, argued that if Trump is doing 'coercive diplomacy' with Iran, then his 'hand is strengthened' the more damage Israelis do to Iran.
Krause said the next two weeks will likely see a 'ramping up with more of the same militarily, but simultaneously, attempted diplomacy led by the Europeans and maybe the United States and the Turks to see if we can get an off-ramp before things get worse.'
Trump has also long hurled ultimatums at opponents that he often quickly reverses as he pushes them to make concessions — as the world saw with his tariffs regime in the spring — demanding exorbitant tariffs only to back off once the trading partner arrived at the negotiating table.
But taking that approach here may not work. The latest signals from the White House suggest a demand for zero uranium enrichment in Iran, a condition Tehran sees as fundamentally unacceptable. Iranian officials maintain they have no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons, but argue that some level of enrichment, under clear restrictions and oversight, is a sovereign right. Stripping that away, they contend, would amount to capitulation rather than compromise.
With assistance from Ethan Bronner.
This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.