Libya's Future in Peril Again, While Russia Expands Its Influence
North Africa's most resource-rich nation, Libya—home to vast hydrocarbon and mineral reserves—is once again at a crossroads. Despite its potential, the country continues to struggle with instability and lacks the international attention needed for sustainable progress. Backed by Western and Turkish support, Libya's internationally recognized government is attempting to revitalize its upstream oil and gas sector, which is already attracting notable global interest.
At the African Energy Forum in Paris, Abdolkabir Alfakhry, a representative of Libya's Ministry of Oil and Gas, announced that nearly 40 international companies have expressed interest in the upcoming licensing round, which is expected to be formally launched in November. Alfakhry emphasized that future development efforts will prioritize offshore resources, an area that remains largely underexplored.
According to the Ministry, the bid round—initially announced in March 2025—will offer 22 onshore and offshore blocks covering a total area of 235,267 square kilometers. These include 128,714 km² offshore and 106,553 km² onshore, primarily within the Sirte, Ghadames, and Murzuq Basins, with potential future activity in the Kufra Basin. Contracts will be offered under the Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) model, with deals expected to be signed between November 22 and 30.
Estimates suggest the blocks may contain approximately 1.63 billion barrels of oil equivalent in discovered reserves. Libya has actively promoted these opportunities through events in Houston, London, and Istanbul. European energy giants such as Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Equinor are expected to participate, alongside U.S. firms like ConocoPhillips, which has maintained a longstanding presence via the Waha Concession. ConocoPhillips' President for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Steiner Vage, confirmed continued American interest in expanding operations in Libya.
Global demand for hydrocarbons and the urgency to diversify Libya's economy further reinforce the strategic importance of this bid round. For Europe, new oil and gas volumes from Libya could significantly bolster energy security amid geopolitical uncertainty.
However, persistent instability threatens to derail progress. Recent clashes in Tripoli, sparked by the killing of prominent militia commander Abdel Ghani al-Kikli (known as Ghaniwa), once again exposed Libya's fragile security landscape. Ghaniwa, a key figure in the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), was killed in a facility controlled by the 444 Brigade, loyal to Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah. The violence forced hundreds to flee and risked spreading to other regions.
While the Government of National Unity (GNU) has since declared the situation under control, no official response has yet come from the east, where the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, remains dominant.
The timing of the unrest is especially notable: it coincided with General Haftar's visit to Moscow, where he and his son, Saddam Haftar, met with President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Reports suggest discussions covered enhanced military cooperation, arms deals, and potential Russian military infrastructure in eastern Libya—a strategic foothold that would significantly expand Moscow's influence in the Mediterranean.
Since its loss of strategic positions in Syria, Russia has been actively seeking new naval and military assets in North Africa. Libya, with its Mediterranean coastline and proximity to Europe, offers a prime location. Russian involvement in Libya complements its expanding presence in Algeria, Tunisia, and across the Sahel, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.
European leaders are growing increasingly alarmed. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto recently warned that Russian military capabilities could be positioned 'just two steps away' from Italy's maritime territory, threatening NATO's southern flank and Europe's energy and commodity supply lines.
The intensifying geopolitical competition in Libya is likely to impact the success of the November bid round. European nations, particularly Italy and France, must take more decisive action. Ensuring Libya's stability is not only key to regional development—it is vital to safeguarding Europe's maritime security and energy future.
By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com
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