Maharashtra poised to witness its earliest monsoon onset in 12 years, Pune continues to receive showers

Time of India

24-05-2025

Pune: Maharashtra is poised to witness its earliest monsoon onset in 12 years, with
India Meteorological Department
(IMD) forecasting favourable conditions for the Southwest Monsoon to advance into parts of the state within the next two-three days — potentially matching the early arrival pattern last seen in 2011 and 2013.
The development comes after the Southwest Monsoon set in over Kerala on Saturday, eight days ahead of its normal date of June 1. IMD officials said conditions were now favorable for further advance of the monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, some parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, and northeastern states during the next 2-3 days.
"This is the earliest monsoon advance in years for Maharashtra, similar to Kerala, where the monsoon set in on Saturday — eight days ahead of the normal onset date," IMD-Pune scientist S D Sanap said.
The monsoon usually enters Maharashtra after June 5. However, IMD officials said the monsoon onset declaration depends on maintaining a "line of continuity" across regions. "We should also see good rainfall in adjoining areas such as parts of northeast India, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
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That is also a factor," explained another IMD official.
This continuity principle means that for monsoon to be declared over Maharashtra, sustained rainfall patterns must be established across interconnected geographical zones, not just isolated pockets. The monsoon system needs to show consistent progress across the Western Ghats and adjoining areas to ensure it's a genuine advance rather than pre-monsoon activity.
Sanap said: "Monsoon normally advances over Goa around June 5. But our forecast indicates that entire Goa could be covered in the next two-three days. The natural onset would occur much earlier in Maharashtra too." As per normal advancement dates, the monsoon covers the entire state by June 15.
According to historical data, Maharashtra's monsoon onset dates have typically fallen in June over the past decade and a half.
Recent onset dates include 2024 (June 6), 2023 (June 11), 2022 (June 10), 2021 (June 5), 2020 (June 11), 2019 (June 20), 2018 (June 8), 2017 (June 10), 2016 (June 19), 2015 (June 8), 2014 (June 11), 2013 (June 4), 2012 (June 6) and 2011 (June 4). The earliest onset in recent years was June 4 in both 2011 and 2013.
If the monsoon advances as predicted in the next two-three days, 2025 could potentially see the state's earliest onset since 2011.
IMD scientists refrained from specifying which cities in Maharashtra could see monsoon advancement first, stating that onset declaration considers multiple factors including wind patterns, rainfall distribution, and regional continuity of the weather system.
Pune district, meanwhile, continued to receive pre-monsoon showers on Saturday, with IMD forecasting moderate to heavy showers for Sunday and Monday.
From 8:30am to 5:30pm on Saturday, Baramati recorded the highest rainfall at 13.2mm, followed by Haveli (13.0mm) and Hadapsar and Bhor (10.5mm each). Other areas that received some rainfall included Wadgaonsheri (8.5mm), Pashan (7.6mm), Dhamdhere (5.5mm), and Lavasa (5.0mm).
Pune areas like NDA and Dudulgaon recorded 3.0mm each, while Shivajinagar received 2.7mm.
The overnight rainfall data from Friday-Saturday had shown even higher precipitation, with Baramati recording 61.5mm — highest in the district.
This was attributed to a depression over east-central Arabian Sea that moved slowly eastward.
Rain continued to lash parts of Maharashtra and Pune district during the night intervening Friday and Saturday, with locations like Devgad in Konkan and Gaganbavda in Madhya Maharashtra recording 100mm in the 24-hour period, while Kankavli recorded even more at 130mm till 8:30 am on Saturday. IMD officials attributed the ongoing rainfall to a depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea and adjoining south Konkan coast.
Mumbai has been recording meagre rain lately. On Saturday, it received rainfall till 5:30 pm. Abhijit Modak, independent weather forecaster, said: "With easterlies prevailing, convergence-induced thunderstorms favour interior Maharashtra more. Mumbai is on the opposite side of the Arabian Sea system, so it is not receiving westerly winds that can bring sustained rainfall spells. Unless there are isolated showers or hit-and-miss thunderstorms, Mumbai is not getting much.
"
Latest observations indicate that the depression is crossing the south Konkan coast near Ratnagiri. After the landfall, it is likely to continue to move eastwards across Madhya Maharashtra and weaken gradually into a well-marked low pressure area during the next 24 hours.
Another system likely to contribute to the rain is a trough running from eastcentral Arabian sea to south Chhattisgarh across the cyclonic circulation associated with the depression area over eastcentral Arabian sea and adjoining south coastal Maharashtra coast in lower tropospheric levels.