Expert notes need for S. Korea to persuade China not to create conflict in Taiwan Strait

Korea Herald

14-05-2025

A security expert in the United States underscored the need Tuesday for Seoul to make diplomatic efforts to persuade China not to cause conflict in the Taiwan Strait, noting that it would be increasingly difficult for South Korea to avoid getting involved in a potential Taiwan contingency.
Ellen Kim, director of academic programs at the Washington-based Korea Economic Institute of America, made the remarks, calling attention to the potential role of the 28,500-strong US Forces Koreain a contingency, which could draw South Korea into a potential Taiwan-related conflict.
"My personal view is that increasingly, it's going to be very difficult for South Korea to be trying to avoid contingency," she said during a press meeting.
"South Korea should try to make diplomatic efforts to avoid the war happening, and try to make a diplomatic persuasion toward China not to create conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which is sending a clear signal that having conflict is bad for China," she added.
She predicted that although Seoul does not want to get entangled in the Taiwan issue, it could be drawn into a contingency should USFK forces be mobilized in the event of a crisis.
"South Korea does have USFK troops, and that really becomes a major factor for China because if USFK forces come in support of Taiwan, that becomes a threat to China," she said. "If China considers that US forces are going to be attacking China, then South Korea will automatically join the conflict," she added.
Kim highlighted the need for South Korea to think through how to respond to Taiwan Strait issues as they are no longer "local" ones.
South Korea has been reluctant to openly discuss any role in the event of Taiwan Strait contingencies as it seeks to avoid tension with China, a key trading partner for Asia's fourth largest economy. But in recent years, it has taken on a clearer position, as it stated support for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait in public documents.
Meanwhile, Scott Snyder, the president and CEO at the KEI, cast ongoing trade talks between Seoul and Washington as an effort to "reconfigure" the bilateral trade relationship, while anticipating that the allies will also discuss how to "reconfigure" the defense and security relationship.
He stressed that the reconfiguration process will not necessarily be in the form of "unilateral demands or requests" from the US side.
"Because both sides bring something to the table in the defense security relationship and there are a lot of different ways to approach a reconfiguration of that approach," Snyder said.
Snyder also pointed out a policy shift under the second Trump administration.
"Basically, we've moved from offering carrots in the form of subsidies to threatening sticks in the form of tariffs," he said, drawing comparison with a policy approach of the former Biden administration.
"I think that's what the South Korean companies are having to grapple with."
South Korea and the US have been in talks over tariff- and non-tariff measures, investment cooperation, economic security and currency policy, as Seoul has been striving to avoid or minimize the impact of new levies rolled out by US President Donald Trump's administration.
On the same day, the KEI released a survey that found more than half of Americans think South Korean firms' investments in the US are good for the US economy -- an indication of their relatively positive view on economic ties with the Asian country.
Responding to a question over whether South Korean businesses' investments are good for the US economy, 55.62 percent of the respondents said, "Yes."
The percentages for Japanese and German companies came to 64.33 percent and 62.64 percent, respectively, while the figure for Chinese companies stood at 38.99 percent.
Regarding a question about whether South Korean firms' investments in new US high-tech manufacturing plants are good for the US economy, 57.23 percent said, "Yes."
For this question, the percentages for Japanese and German companies were tallied at 68.8 percent and 66.43 percent, while the figure for Chinese companies was 46.38 percent.
The survey was conducted on a sample of 1,500 people across 10 states, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan and New York, from Dec. 17 through Jan. 2. It had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 8.21 percentage points. (Yonhap)