Nottingham Forest news: Are Reds better without the ball?

BBC News

06-05-2025

For more than a decade, those watching from the stands and through screens have been led to believe that possession-based football is the holy grail when pursuing success.
With Barcelona's tiki-taka and the tactics brought to the Premier League by Pep Guardiola, more and more teams have prioritised this 'easy on the eye' style of play.
And while it is hard to argue with the success of the La Liga giants and Manchester City's recent trophy-laden years, it is not something that works for everyone.
A number of teams have fallen foul of this obsession to build up play from the back and keep-ball over counter-attack.
But, it is a mould Nottingham Forest have been trying to break this season.
The Reds sit sixth in the table and just two points off a Champions League spot - this despite having the second-lowest average possession in the league so far this campaign (39.97%).
From relegation candidates to European place contenders in less than 12 months, they have built this progress, not on possession, but on a solid defence and ability to be clinical on the counter-attack.
The East Midlands side are joint-fourth for goals conceded (42) and sit only one place and one fewer than newly crowned Premier League champions Liverpool for clean sheets (13).
There have been few occasions this term where Forest have been equal to or had more possession than their opponent.
Their draw at Crystal Palace on Monday night was one such occasion. Despite having more of the ball, they struggled to really create quality chances and, had Eberechi Eze's late effort dipped a couple of inches lower, they may have come away empty handed.
There have been 28 games in the league when Nuno Espirito Santo's side have had under 50% of the possession this season, of which they have gone on to win 15 - a win percentage of 54%.
In a much smaller sample size, there have been just seven occasions in which they have had 50% or more possession and from those they have won three games, giving them a win percentage of 43%.
While they understandably concede less per game when they have more of the ball (0.86 compared to 1.29), they do tend to score more when they have less possession (1.61 compared to 1.29 per game).
In fact, when looking at how they fared in the match they had least possession in this campaign, they scored three times in a win over Manchester United at Old Trafford.
In contrast, in the game where they had the ball the most - at home to Brentford - they succumbed to a 2-0 defeat.
When everyone else is trying to move more towards the possession-based grain, going against it could be what secures Forest European football for the first time in more than 40 years.