Zim on the brink: Analysts warn of political implosion and economic collapse
With Mnangagwa accused of clinging to power and the opposition in tatters, Zimbabwe's future looks increasingly bleak.
As Zimbabwe's socioeconomic crisis deepens, analysts warned this week that the country may be heading for an implosion.
According to Harare-based human rights lawyer Thulani Mzala, the mineral and tobacco-rich middle-income country has been hit by 'multifaceted problems'.
These include political repression, economic collapse and institutional decay, with President Emmerson Mnangagwa seeking to extend his rule to 2030.
In addition scores of human rights activists are in jail, medicines and bed linen are scarce in most hospitals, leading to dysfunctional health care and prisons are running out of food.
Zanu-PF factionalism and opposition collapse
Despite stability hinging on political parties, including the ruling Zanu-PF, commencing negotiations, Mzala said a collapse in the Zimbabwean opposition and the factionalism plaguing the governing party remained among the 'negative factors'.
'The collapse of the Zimbabwean opposition can be traced to infiltration by Zanu-PF and Central Intelligence Organisation agents.
'Another factor is the infighting within Zanu-PF, with Vice-President General Constantino Chiwenga, who led the military coup to oust former president Robert Mugabe, at loggerheads with Mnangagwa over the extension of his term of office to 2030.
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Power struggles and military response fears
'There has been a document circulating that is expected to go to Cabinet for the approval of the extension of Mnangagwa term. The document will thereafter move to parliament, with MPs expected to vote in favour of extending the president's term to 2030,' said Mzala.
He described the Zimbabwean situation as 'very tense amid a standoff between Mnangagwa and expelled Zanu-PF central committee member Blessed Geza.
'Geza has been mobilising mass demonstrations and stayaways. He calls the president corrupt and says he is butchering the constitution in wanting to extend his term. No-one knows what is going to happen due to Zanu-PF internal factionalism. Whether Chiwenga still has support in the military remains to be seen amid talk of a military takeover. 'But the president seems to be in control of the military.'
'Not interested in democracy'
Political analysts Dale McKinley and Sandile Swana said Zimbabwe was far from the restoration of normality Said McKinley: 'Zimbabwe is in a deep, structural, political, economic and social crisis.
'At heart of it is Zanu-PF, which runs the government and the military that supports it, and is not interested in democracy.
'They are interested in maintaining power at all costs, with the economic crisis going on for the past 20 years in varying degrees – irrespective of the removal of Mugabe.
'The predatory elite use the state – a vampire state trying to suck out everything. It will take a social and political revolution in Zimbabwe to change the status quo – people rising up, combined with pressure from outside.'
ALSO READ: Meet the ageing war veteran standing up to Zimbabwe's president
'The crisis will continue' under Zanu-PF
Swana said: 'The crisis will continue for as long as Zanu-PF does not want to share power. The Zimbabwean intelligentsia do not recognise the continuing role of Zanu-PF and President Mnangagwa.
'Normality in Zimbabwe will come when Zimbabweans agree among themselves that Zanu-PF does not have the right to lead Zimbabwe.
'For as long as the crisis exists, Zimbabweans will live in Botswana, South Africa and other neighbouring countries because the Zimbabwe economy is terrible.'
He said the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) leaders 'have been mutually protecting each other'.
'Those like Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema, who criticised the arrangement with Zimbabwe, have been ridiculed by SADC members for likening Zimbabwe to the Titanic sinking.
Citizen participation
Prof Zwelinzima Ndevu, a public leadership expert from the University of Stellenbosch, urged Zimbabweans to 'play a more active role in the country's affairs'.
'Elections failed to produce the desired outcome, with change in leadership not achieved. There is a need for an impact-driven grassroots movement to focus beyond politics on the general wellbeing of people.'
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