Beijing adviser Yan Anlin on why a timetable for Taiwan reunification has disadvantages
historic talks with Taiwan in 1993, Yan is frequently consulted by Beijing on cross-strait policymaking and sits in on official meetings.
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He currently serves as president of the Shanghai Association of Taiwan Studies as well as the Shanghai Institute for International Strategic Studies. He is also a former vice-president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies think tank. This interview first appeared in
SCMP Plus . For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click
here
What is your assessment of the current state of cross-strait relations and the historical progress towards reunification?
In my view, we are still in the early stages of building momentum towards complete reunification, which can be seen as a preparatory phase.
It is likely to take another five to 10 years to achieve full reunification, as we are still in a phase of quantitative change, rather than having reached a qualitative shift.
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However, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility that – if [Taiwanese leader] William Lai Ching-te and other forces advocating Taiwan independence push matters to the extreme – peaceful reunification becomes no longer feasible, which is when the situation might escalate rapidly.
When I say it will take five to 10 years, I'm referring to peaceful reunification. I believe it would be very difficult to achieve sooner than that.
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