Beijing adviser Yan Anlin on why a timetable for Taiwan reunification has disadvantages
Professor Yan Anlin is one of mainland China's most highly regarded Taiwan studies experts. A former close aide to Wang Daohan, the mainland representative at the
historic talks with Taiwan in 1993, Yan is frequently consulted by Beijing on cross-strait policymaking and sits in on official meetings.
Advertisement
He currently serves as president of the Shanghai Association of Taiwan Studies as well as the Shanghai Institute for International Strategic Studies. He is also a former vice-president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies think tank. This interview first appeared in
SCMP Plus . For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click
here
What is your assessment of the current state of cross-strait relations and the historical progress towards reunification?
In my view, we are still in the early stages of building momentum towards complete reunification, which can be seen as a preparatory phase.
It is likely to take another five to 10 years to achieve full reunification, as we are still in a phase of quantitative change, rather than having reached a qualitative shift.
Advertisement
However, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility that – if [Taiwanese leader] William Lai Ching-te and other forces advocating Taiwan independence push matters to the extreme – peaceful reunification becomes no longer feasible, which is when the situation might escalate rapidly.
When I say it will take five to 10 years, I'm referring to peaceful reunification. I believe it would be very difficult to achieve sooner than that.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
HKFP
3 days ago
- HKFP
Trump, Xi hold long-awaited phone call on US-China trade war
US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke Thursday, with both sides agreeing to talks to prevent an all-out trade war over tariffs and global rare earth supplies. Trump said the call reached a 'very positive conclusion' and that they agreed to meet in person — but Beijing issued a more muted readout saying that Xi spoke of a need to 'correct the course' of ties. The call — the first to be publicly announced since Trump returned to power in January — comes after Beijing and Washington accused each other of jeopardizing a trade war truce agreed last month in Geneva. Trump said a high-level US trade team including his treasury secretary, commerce secretary and US trade representative would meet Chinese officials soon. 'The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries,' Trump said on Truth Social. 'President Xi graciously invited the First Lady and me to visit China, and I reciprocated. As Presidents of two Great Nations, this is something that we both look forward to doing,' he added. Trump said they would announce the time and place later. But the leaders did not discuss Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Trump said, despite long-standing US hopes that Beijing could exert influence over Moscow to end the war. 'The conversation was focused almost entirely on TRADE,' said Trump, adding that they hoped to have resolved issues over crucial rare earth minerals used in tech products. Relations between superpower rivals Beijing and Washington have been fraught since April, when Trump introduced sweeping worldwide tariffs that targeted China most heavily. At one point the United States hit China with additional levies of 145 percent on its goods as both sides engaged in tit-for-tat escalation. China's countermeasures on US goods reached 125 percent. Trump had described Xi as recently as Wednesday as 'extremely hard to make a deal with.' Chinese state media said Trump had requested the call. There was no immediate confirmation from the White House. 'Correcting the course' In its more restrained readout, Beijing said that relations needed more work. 'Correcting the course of the big ship of Sino-US relations requires us to steer well and set the direction, especially to eliminate all kinds of interference and even destruction, which is particularly important,' Xi told Trump, according to state news agency Xinhua. The agency reported that the pair discussed the self-ruled democratic island of Taiwan, which China claims as part of its territory and has threatened to seize by force. Xi warned his US counterpart that Washington should handle the issue 'with caution' to avoid Taiwanese separatists 'dragging China and the United States into the danger of conflict,' Xinhua said. But Xi also extended Trump a welcome to return to China, according to the agency, following an earlier trip during his first term in 2017. Until Thursday, the two leaders had not had any confirmed contact since the Republican returned to power in January, despite frequent claims by the US president that such a call was imminent. Beijing and Washington agreed in Geneva last month to slash their staggeringly high tariffs for 90 days, but the two sides have since traded blame for derailing the deal. Trump argued last week that China had 'totally violated' the terms, without providing further details. China's commerce ministry hit back by saying the Trump administration had introduced 'discriminatory restrictive measures,' including revoking some Chinese student visas in the United States. Trump has separately ramped up tensions with other trade partners, including the European Union, by vowing to double global tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 percent from Wednesday.
HKFP
3 days ago
- HKFP
Hong Kong activists, diaspora attend Tiananmen anniversary vigils overseas amid ban in home city
Hong Kong activists and the diaspora attended candlelight vigils and other events around the world on Wednesday to mark the 36th anniversary of the Tiananmen crackdown, amid the city's ongoing ban on public commemorations of the event. Hong Kong, once the only location on Chinese soil to host large-scale Tiananmen memorial vigils, has not held any large-scale gatherings since 2020, when authorities banned the annual event for the first time, citing Covid-19 restrictions. The ban was enforced again in 2021, nearly a year after a national security law imposed by Beijing came into effect. On Wednesday, Hong Kong police patrolled Victoria Park, the former site of the annual vigils, and its vicinity, searching and taking away individuals suspected of mourning the crackdown victims. The June 4 anniversaries have become annual activities in cities from Taipei to London, from Vancouver to Washington, DC. More than 30 events were held in 20 cities around the world this year, from talks, exhibitions, and dramas to marches, assemblies, and candlelight vigils, according to international media reports. Some events attracted dozens of participants, while others drew hundreds or even thousands of attendees. The Tiananmen crackdown occurred on June 4, 1989, ending months of student-led demonstrations in China. It is estimated that hundreds, perhaps thousands, died when the People's Liberation Army cracked down on protesters in Beijing. Taiwan On Wednesday evening, around 3,000 people braved the rain and showed up at Taipei's Liberty Square to commemorate the crackdown that took place 36 years ago, according to the New School for Democracy, one of the organisers. The attendees held up digital memorial candles and observed 64 seconds of silence to mourn the victims of Beijing's crackdown. The attendees included not only Taiwanese but also Hongkongers currently residing in Taiwan, according to the Taipei Times, a local newspaper. 'We faced a more challenging situation this year, not only because of threats from outside, but also due to challenges of limited resources,' the New School for Democracy said in Chinese on Facebook. 'That is exactly why we need to stand firm in continuing to host this assembly and to safeguard this piece of history.' Canada Hundreds of people gathered in Vancouver's David Lam Park on Wednesday evening to attend a candlelight vigil organised by the Vancouver Society in Support of Democratic Movement (VSSDM). The VSSDM also invited various speakers to share their memories of the Tiananmen crackdown and the changes in Hong Kong over the past few years. One of them was Mak Hoi-wah, a former member of Hong Kong's Democratic Party and former vice chairperson of the defunct Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China – a group that organised annual Tiananmen vigils in Hong Kong. As night fell, attendees lit candles distributed by the organiser to mourn the victims of the crackdown. The VSSDM and the Toronto Association for Democracy in China (TADC) started holding activities to mark the Tiananmen crackdown on Sunday, according to Radio Canada International. Around 2,000 people took part in a candlelight vigil organised by the TADC at North York Mel Lastman Square, Toronto, on Sunday. Among the speakers were human rights activist Zhou Fengsuo, who survived the Tiananmen crackdown, and Hong Kong activist and former student leader Alex Chow. Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow also attended the vigil. The student union at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver and the VSSDM invited people to lay wreaths at the statue of the Goddess of Democracy on the campus on Sunday morning. United Kingdom Hundreds of people attended a candlelight vigil in front of the Chinese embassy in London on Wednesday evening to commemorate the Tiananmen crackdown. Similar activities were also held in other cities across England, including Reading, Leeds, Birmingham, Cardiff, Kingston, and Chester, as well as in Scotland. United States On Wednesday evening, like in previous years, the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation organised a candlelight vigil in front of its memorial statue in Washington, DC. Self-exiled Hong Kong activist Frances Hui – one of 19 people wanted by the Hong Kong government on suspicion of committing national security offences – was among those who attended the vigil. Events to mark the 36th anniversary of the crackdown were also held in New York in the US; Tokyo in Japan; Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth in Australia; and Amsterdam in the Netherlands.
HKFP
5 days ago
- HKFP
Taiwan President Lai, US State Secretary Rubio vow to ‘never forget' Tiananmen victims
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te vowed Wednesday to preserve the memory of China's Tiananmen Square crackdown 36 years ago, echoing rhetoric by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Chinese troops and tanks forcibly cleared peaceful protesters from Beijing's Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, after weeks-long demonstrations demanding greater political freedoms. The exact toll is unknown but hundreds died, with some estimates exceeding 1,000 people. China's communist rulers have since sought to erase any public mention of the crackdown. 'Authoritarian governments often choose to be silent and forget history; democratic societies choose to preserve the truth and refuse to forget those who have contributed to the ideal of human rights and their dreams,' Lai said in a post on Facebook ahead of an annual vigil in Taipei's Liberty Square. 'We remember the sacrifice of our predecessors, and we know the value of freedom, and we cannot ignore the erosion of global democracy and the rule of law by authoritarian expansion.' China claims Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to seize the democratic island by force. In a rare return to human rights rhetoric, Rubio said Tuesday the 'world will never forget' what happened on June 4 even as Beijing 'actively tries to censor the facts'. 'Today we commemorate the bravery of the Chinese people who were killed as they tried to exercise their fundamental freedoms, as well as those who continue to suffer persecution as they seek accountability and justice for the events of June 4, 1989,' Rubio said in a statement. Despite a long Senate career as an outspoken advocate for human rights, Rubio has been more selective as Donald Trump's top diplomat, focusing his rights criticism on US adversaries including China and Cuba. Rubio's predecessors issued statements each year to mark the anniversary of the bloody crackdown. But Rubio's statement had subtle differences — his Democratic predecessor Antony Blinken last year urged China to accept recommendations in a UN-backed rights review and to respect freedoms enshrined in the post-World War II Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Rubio did not reference the United Nations, a frequent target of criticism by the Trump administration. 'We remember the June 4 incident not only for the sake of history, but also because authoritarianism still exists,' Sky Fung of Taiwan-based rights group Hong Kong Outlanders told a news conference. 'Reaffirm our commitment' In Hong Kong, a jailed activist began a 36-hour hunger strike on Wednesday, a dogged attempt to individually commemorate the anniversary in a city that once hosted huge public remembrances. Former lawyer Chow Hang-tung used to help organise an annual vigil that drew tens of thousands to the city's Victoria Park. Hong Kong had been the only place under Chinese rule where commemoration of the crackdown was tolerated. Slogans at the candlelight vigil sometimes called for democracy in China and an end to one-party rule. But after huge and sometimes violent protests roiled the city in 2019, Beijing brought in a wide-ranging national security law that has quashed political dissent. The public memorial has effectively been banned and Chow imprisoned, facing a potential life sentence on subversion charges. On Wednesday, AFP journalists saw dozens of police patrolling the district around the park. Over the last few years, activists have been detained for 'offences in connection with seditious intention' around the anniversary. In a social media post, Chow said her hunger strike would 'commemorate this day and reaffirm our commitment'. She called the city's national security officers 'real 'criminals'' and urged authorities to apologise to her over her 'wrongful' imprisonment. 'History tells us that (the apology) will likely take a very long time –- the Tiananmen Mothers have been waiting for 36 years and still have not received an apology,' she said, referring to an activist group made up of families of victims of the crackdown. A video featuring 87-year-old Zhang Xianling, whose 19-year-old son was killed in 1989, circulated online last week. China's authorities have never addressed the group's plea for dialogue around the issue — instead, they have used all means to monitor and wiretap members of the Tiananmen Mothers, Zhang said. 'The lights in Victoria Park may have been blown out by the gales, but the sparks of justice will glow in the hearts of every conscientious person,' she added.
