A way-too early guess at who will make the College Football Playoff this season

NBC Sports

3 days ago

It is a well-versed group of athletic directors, former coaches and players along with a sports writer, who will be armed with statistics, analytics, charts and graphs and enough highlights to start their own college football network as they settle into their work on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
In the end, though, the sport's method of determining a champion – or at least deciding who gets the right to play for the championship – comes down to a matter of opinion.
Now in its second year with an expanded bracket, 12 teams will make the playoff to close out the 2025-26 season. Five of those slots will go to conference champions. The rest will be at-large bids to be handed out by the 13-person committee.
Here's a far-too-early prediction at where they will end up, and what the toughest choices will be before the bracket comes out on Dec. 8.
Conference champions
There's no debate over this: The five conference champions with the best ranking from the committee will make the playoff. But in a change from last year, the top four won't be guaranteed first-round byes.
Best guess here says these champions will be:
Southeastern: Texas, with Arch Manning, is the favorite. But Georgia wins a rematch of a Nov. 15 showdown with the Longhorns in the SEC title game that won't have all that much riding on it, CFP-wise, since, after all, these both look like top-four teams.
Big Ten: Penn State coach James Franklin is 1-10 against Ohio State. Buckeyes have two Heisman Trophy hopefuls in Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin. Game is at the Horseshoe and Ohio State is the reigning national champion. Another Michigan upset could factor in all this, of course, but Ohio State wins the conference.
Atlantic Coast: Miami is a dark horse. Clemson has the goods and quarterback Cade Klubnik.
Big 12: Let's assume, just because they're a Power Four conference, that this league will produce one of the four best-ranked conference champions. But not by much. Kansas State has QB Avery Johnson returning, which could be enough to win a conference in which at least six teams, including defending champ Arizona State, have a chance.
Group of Five: If Boise State, sans Ashton Jeanty, wins at Notre Dame on Oct. 4, the Broncos are in. If not (more likely), then let's assume Tulane takes care of business at home against both Duke and Northwestern and makes the playoff.
At-large and in charge
Texas: Longhorns split against Bulldogs with another matchup potentially in store?
Alabama: Hard to imagine the Tide losing four games again this season (or the committee overlooking any ugly number in the 'L' column if they do, regardless of their strong schedule.)
Oregon: QB Dante Moore chose Oregon, then UCLA, then Oregon again, and if he lives up to expectations, the Ducks could go far.
Penn State: CFP semifinalists last season, the Nittany Lions try to, once again, take advantage of the second chance the playoff offers.
Miami: QB Carson Beck came over from Georgia, but this defense will need to improve.
Notre Dame: The Irish game against better-than-expected USC on Oct. 18 will be the equivalent of a playoff play-in.
Mississippi: If only to save us from another Lane Kiffin social media barrage. But seriously, this program had one of the best transfer-portal hauls in the country. The Rebels are also getting used to winning 10 games a year and you can't ignore that forever.
And the matchups are ...
The bye teams: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Clemson.
The first-round matchups, on campus:
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Alabama: This will be the conspiracy theory game. Tulane, probably ranked about 16th, will take the spot that could've gone to yet another SEC team. (Did you know Tulane was once in the SEC?) Meanwhile, Alabama might be good enough to be ranked fourth but the committee wanted to assert its independence by not handing byes to three SEC teams.
No. 11 Kansas State at No. 6 Oregon: The fifth, final and probably most decisive of the Big 12 vs. Big Ten matchups in 2025.
No. 10 Mississippi at No. 7 Penn State: They met in the Peach Bowl in 2023. Now, Ole Miss gets a cold welcome to the big time.
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Miami: They play a regular-season game Aug. 31. You can't ever get enough of a good thing.