Reform is a broken, infighting mess: it's time for the Tories to take charge
Reform UK has been riding high in the polls for months, capitalising on voter frustration and positioning itself as the insurgent force on the Right. But with four years to go until the next election, the party already seems determined to self-sabotage, within a week going from talking about being the 'real opposition' to looking like a pop-up Christmas market – appearing overnight, making lots of noise and then vanishing without trace.
The movement has tapped into real anger – at immigration, net zero, and 'conservative-in-name-only' Tories. The party talks a big game about breaking the system, but Farage has always been a gambler. From UKIP to the Brexit Party, his career has been defined by big bets that pay off spectacularly – until they don't. His ability to command headlines is unmatched, but headlines don't build lasting political parties. His previous vehicles for revolution have all either collapsed or been quietly mothballed, their usefulness to the cause spent. That the latest split occurred while the party only has a handful of MPs hardly bodes well for the future.
The Tories, too, are big gamblers, but operate on a longer timescale. The past few years they've lost heavily – the election was humiliating, and Kemi Badenoch's brief honeymoon as leader is already long past– but the party has a history of bouncing back from electoral catastrophe. They always bet on their ability to outlast their opponents, and this process is again underway.
It is also very telling that Jenrick – a perfect fit for Reform – remains a staunch Tory. He has been perhaps the most enthusiastic adopter of Reform talking points – railing against the European Court of Human Rights and demanding a harder stance on immigration. Yet he remains firmly within the Conservative fold. Why? Because Jenrick, like many others, knows that Reform is a protest movement, rather than a real successor party.
Farage's gamble was that a fractured, frustrated Right would flock to his banner in numbers large enough to make Reform a permanent force. But despite the noise, the numbers don't quite stack up. As long as Reform's primary appeal remains that they are not the Tories, they'll struggle to build a lasting electoral coalition.
This is why the fight between Reform and the Tories is existential, and why, despite the crowing of the new boys, the odds remain in favour of the world's most successful political party. If someone like Robert Jenrick were to take over the Conservative leadership, the party would start to eat Farage's lunch.
In his later years, Farage's need to be loved is also a hindrance. Jenrick is pushing for policies that go beyond soundbites. He resigned from Rishi Sunak's government over what he saw as weak immigration policy, while Farage, perhaps stung from years of being called every name under the sun by Europhiles accusing his movements of racism, has softened his stance precisely as the wider electorate was coming round to his original position. Jenrick has openly called for deportations, and frequently signals his willingness to go further than Reform on border control and national security. People want that more than they want Farage to be Prime Minister, no matter how much they hate the Tories.
Reform's fate on current trajectory will likely mirror that of its predecessors. Just as UKIP was consumed by infighting after Brexit, and just as the Brexit Party vanished after achieving its singular goal, Reform will find itself struggling once its moment of protest has passed. The next general election will not be fought with Farage as the main challenger to Labour. He may enjoy the thrill of the flutter, but the house always wins in the end.
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