Number of likely days for Channel crossings double compared with previous years
There were 60 so-called 'red' days between January 1 and April 30 this year, when factors such as wind speed, wave height and the likelihood of rain meant crossings were classed by officials as 'likely' or 'highly likely'.
Some 11,074 migrants arrived in the UK during these four months after crossing the Channel.
By contrast, there were 27 red days in the same period last year, less than half the number in 2025, with 7,567 arrivals recorded – nearly a third lower than the total for this year.
There were also 27 red days in the first four months of 2022, with 23 red days in 2023, with 6,691 and 5,946 arrivals in these periods, respectively.
Assessments of the likelihood of migrant crossings are prepared for the Home Office by the Met Office.
The assessments are colour-coded red, amber or green according tothe likelihood of activity based on environmental and other factors, including wave height, surf conditions on beaches, wind speed and direction, the chance of rain, and other weather trends.
Red days mean the probability of migrant activity in the Channel is greater than 55%, with crossings classed as 'likely' or 'highly likely'.
Green days are determined by the likelihood being less than 35%, with crossings 'unlikely' or 'highly unlikely'.
The analysis is based on data recorded in the Dover Strait and does not consider wider factors such as the availability of dinghies.
The publication comes just days after 1,195 migrants made the journey to the UK in 19 boats on Saturday, in the highest daily total recorded so far this year.
The cumulative total for the year, 14,812, is the highest for the first five months of a year since data collection began in 2018.
Reacting to the figures, shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: 'Labour seems to think praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy.
'This is a weak Government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the Channel.
'Blaming the weather for the highest ever crossing numbers so far this year is the border security equivalent of a lazy student claiming 'the dog ate my homework'.
'This is a clear failure for our weak Prime Minister and his weak Home Secretary.'
Mr Philp also said the reason for the 'worst year in history' for Channel crossings was because the Labour government cancelled the Rwanda plan to deter migrants coming to the UK, not the weather.
A Home Office spokesman said: 'This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long.'
The Government has vowed to crack down on people smuggling gangs, including by handing counter terror-style powers to law enforcement agencies under the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, currently going through Parliament.
The spokesman added that 9,000 crossings have been prevented from the French coastline this year.
Officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of bringing numbers down this year, with measures not expected to start paying off until 2026.
On Monday, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told MPs the Government is pressing their French counterparts to bring in agreed changes that would allow French police to also take action in the sea when migrants climb into boats from the water.
'A French maritime review is looking at what new operational tactics they will use, and we are urging France to complete this review and implement the changes as swiftly as possible,' she said.
'I have been in touch with the French interior minister who supports stronger action again this weekend, and there are further discussions under way this week.'
Elsewhere, the data shows the number of migrants arriving per boat has been on an upward trend since data was first recorded in 2018, when the average for the year was seven.
It rose to 11 per boat in 2019, 13 in 2020, 28 in 2021, 41 in 2022, 49 in 2023 and 53 in 2024.
So far this year, the average has been 56.
Gunes Kalkan, of Safe Passage International, said the rise only increases the risk to people's lives.
'This indicates the Government's approach isn't working, as the smugglers continue to exploit the lack of safe routes for refugees, cramming more and more people dangerously on each boat,' he said.
'But let's always remember these aren't just 'numbers'. People fleeing the horrors of war and persecution are simply seeking a safe life, and often to reunite with family they were torn apart from in the chaos.
'If this Government is serious about saving lives and stopping the smugglers, it must open safe routes and expand refugee family reunion.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
BBC News
16 minutes ago
- BBC News
How Trump is militarising the US-Mexico border
In the heart of the Texas desert, a Stryker is parked near a stretch of border wall. The light but powerful eight-wheeled combat vehicle was used in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars – and now is being used to stop what US President Donald Trump has called an "invasion" at the US-Mexico Stryker is just one of about 100 such vehicles being used along the 3,100 km border. In addition, it is estimated there are over 8,000 soldiers, as well as spy planes and drones, and two Navy ships monitoring the coast.A few kilometres away on the Mexican side of the border, a young man standing on top of a hill is one of the few signs of this so-called "invasion". He is what Border Patrol agents call a "hawk," the ones who monitor and decide when and where to encourage migrants to cross into the United those crossings – not long ago at an all time high – have slowed to a trickle. The declining numbers have raised questions about Trump's border tactics, which include an unprecedented deployment of American military might. A legal loophole Trump has been accused of bypassing the conventional distinction between the armed forces and domestic police by deploying the military to the the US, the Posse Comitatus Act prevents federal armed forces from participating in law enforcement activities unless Congress has expressly authorized the military is allowed to patrol its own bases and arrest trespassers through what is known as the "military purpose doctrine".Between April 18 and May 1, the Pentagon created two National Defense Areas, both bordering the Mexican state of Chihuahua, and made them de facto parts of existing military this has done, says Elizabeth Goitein, senior director of the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice's Liberty & National Security Program, is allow the military to patrol huge swaths of the caught crossing into these areas would be considered trespassers and may be temporarily detained by US soldiers until Border Patrol agents arrive."It's exactly what the administration is trying to set up here: to turn up to a third of the southern border into a military installation," she told BBC Mundo. "When someone enters the area and is detained, they can argue that the primary reason for doing so is to protect the base."The military command insists that its mission is to detain and alert border agents so they can make the official arrest - not to do domestic police work. The Trump administration argues the expanded military areas are necessary for national security, and points to its decisive election victory as a mandate. Stronger border security was a key Trump campaign promise and one of the biggest issues for House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says the new areas "will enhance our ability to detect, interdict and prosecute the illegal aliens, criminal gangs, and terrorists who were able to invade our country"."It will also bolster our defenses against fentanyl and other dangerous narcotics that have been poisoning our communities," she added. 95% isn't good enough Ms Goitein questions how the expansion of the military is justified, given the numbers of crossings at the border have fallen to historic lows. While numbers began falling before Trump took office, the decline has accelerated since January, as the administration has ramped up its efforts to arrest and deport illegal April, more than 8,000 people were detained for illegally entering the country at the southwest border.A year ago, the number was 128,000 in April - a 94 % drop - according to government General Jeremy Winters, who is in charge of coordinating the efforts of different law enforcement agencies along the southern border, has said even one illegal crossing is too many."Containment is at 95%. But 95% is not 100%," he said during a press conference."For us to accept that 95% is good enough would be to say that it's conceptually okay to break the law. And that's not what we're doing here."The creation of these national defense areas has had a direct effect on arrests, statistics show. As of 3 June, the Joint Task Force on the Southern Border has detected approximately 340 migrant in these militerised the common charge of entering the United States illegally, prosecutors now can add the charge of intentionally violating security regulations in the areas now declared both are classified as misdemeanors, the penalties for violating security regulations are much steeper. While entering the country without permission through a location not designated as a port of entry carries a maximum sentence of six months in prison and a fine of up to US$5,000, the second charge increases the possible penalties to up to one year in prison and a fine of US$100,000."This is pure wilderness, a desert" Carlos Ibarra, the public defender for several of the detainees, told BBC Mundo. "(The migrants) continue arriving as usual, but suddenly, they face military charges. And they don't understand anything."Some of those additional charges were dismissed, with a New Mexico judge finding that military signs were not clearly marked or could be missed. But many have been convicted and pleaded the militarisation of the border will even recently said that he pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to allow the Army to cross into the neighbouring country to conduct operations against cartels, something the president flatly now, the troops remain on the US side of the border."This is their primary mission. This is not training. This is an operation to seal and protect our border, our own homeland," Brigadier General Winters said.
Leader Live
18 minutes ago
- Leader Live
MS says education system in Wales is in a 'fragile state'
MS for North Wales To put it mildly, education system across Wales is in a fragile state. One-fifth of pupils are leaving Welsh primary schools unable to read, and results from the global PISA education rankings see us lagging well behind at the bottom of the UK nations. Those PISA tests showed that the performance of disadvantaged children in England is either above or similar to the average for all children in Wales. The Labour Welsh Government have run education here since 1999, and it's fair to say the outcomes are disastrous as a result of deliberate policy decisions. Labour's most recent big idea is to reduce the number of academic qualifications, so your child will no longer be able to do separate chemistry, physics, and biology GCSEs, for example. Not only that, but there is a clear funding crisis. That is particularly acute here in North Wales, and the numbers make for sobering reading. Sixteen schools across Wrexham county are projected to end the 2024/25 financial year in deficit, which is two more than last year. Forty staff have left schools this academic year, with sixty redundancies expected in September. Those redundancy payouts for the last year came at a cost of £403,976 – the Council had originally budgeted for £200,000. This simply isn't sustainable. Education has been woefully mismanaged by Cardiff Labour for a quarter-century and they don't seem to have a coherent strategy to improve the situation. Getting education right is vitally important. It unlocks life opportunities for children and young people. It's genuinely transformative when done right, particularly for those who come from poorer backgrounds. When schooling goes wrong, it can plague that child or young person for the rest of their lives. Just think of those one-fifth who leave primary school functionally illiterate – that is a huge block in terms of accessing jobs and being a fully capable person in the modern world. A fair funding model would be a step back on the path to a great Welsh education system, but we also need to see a rigorous focus on academic achievement and proper discipline in schools. That way, schools in Wrexham, Flintshire and the rest of Wales can ensure children are ready to play their full part in society for years to come. As ever, if you'd like to get in touch then you can email me at
New Statesman
23 minutes ago
- New Statesman
Revealed: Labour's welfare cuts will take people out of work
Photo byThe government's disability benefit cuts would force people out of work or to reduce their working hours, according to new research by the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute – the charity led by Martin Lewis, the consumer champion. Labour's plans to tighten assessments for the personal independence payment (PIP) will affect around 800,000 claimants. The benefit, designed to help people with disabilities and chronic mental and physical conditions live an independent life, is currently paid to more than 3.6 million people. Ministers insist their welfare reforms will bring more people 'back into work'. But nearly two thirds of working people receiving PIP surveyed by the charity said they would need to reduce or give up work without the payments. Reasons cited include the impact losing the benefit would have on their mental health, and practical considerations such as covering the transport costs of travelling to work. 'PIP pays for [my] private therapy… which keeps my mental health at a functioning level,' one respondent told the researchers. 'Without these I doubt I could even manage the permitted work hours (14 hours per week) that I do.' 'PIP has allowed me to get a job where I work 12 hours a week,' another claimant said. 'This has helped with getting me out of my house and helped with my depression… PIP allows me to go to my job, get to appointments, get out to see family and friends.' People losing their PIP who were surveyed said they expect to significantly reduce their spending – including 77 per cent saying they would have to limit their spending on public transport, 87 per cent on private transport (such as taxis), 82 per cent on clothing and other essentials, 81 per cent on personal care, and 70 per cent on child-related costs – all essential parts of a functioning work life. The income shock of losing PIP under the proposed reforms would cause a 'terrifying triple whammy' of financial hardship, worsening mental health and reduced capacity to work for many people with mental health problems, according to the researchers. Claimants surveyed stand to lose £3,850-£5,750 a year if the cut goes ahead. Nearly all – 97 per cent – of respondents said the PIP changes would have a 'significant negative impact' on their mental health. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe 'The government says its welfare reforms will help more people move into work. But you don't do that by depriving people of a critical financial lifeline that helps them stay well,' said Helen Undy, chief executive of the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute. 'Our analysis shows that these changes would actually result in many people with mental-health problems who have a job cutting their hours or leaving the workplace altogether. We urge the government to ditch these plans.' Adding ever-more restrictions to the welfare system to boost employment sounds logical, but it doesn't play out this way in the real world. As I have written before, the Department for Work and Pensions' fixation with cranking up 'conditionality' (the requirement to meet certain demands to avoid having your benefits docked) over successive governments has had little effect on working hours. While the number of claimants subject to conditionality has more than doubled since 2013, the evidence for its effect on working hours is 'inconclusive', according to the Resolution Foundation, a living standards think tank. Instead, with each harsher measure, working and non-working people are losing the support they need to live full and functional lives. A former DWP adviser once told me that, at best, 'harsh and prescriptive conditionality… pushes people into low-paid and insecure work, which is a poor outcome for them but also means they're likely to continue to need support to top up their incomes'. Martin Lewis, known as the Money Saving Expert, has spent his career pursuing value for money. He knows a false economy when he sees one. A government spokesperson said: 'The majority of people who are currently getting PIP will continue to receive it. Our reforms will help sick or disabled people move out of poverty and into good, secure jobs, while ensuring the social security system will always be there for those who will never be able to work. 'We are consulting on how best to support those impacted by the new eligibility changes, and have also announced a review of the PIP assessment, working with disabled people and key organisations representing them to consider how best to do this.' [See also: How the weather changed on the 'cruel' two-child benefit cap] Related
