The PM has more than cash to win over Trump on AUKUS
The massive deal, struck between unions and shipbuilder Electric Boat, came after the US Navy in April awarded a $US12.4 billion contract for the construction of two nuclear-powered submarines that included federally funded wage rises and shipyard improvements.
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Dot-com deja vu or small-cap revival?
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The Age
an hour ago
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Dot-com deja vu or small-cap revival?
It seems the good people at Bank of America hold a different view to Dollar Bill's recent small-cap cheerleading. According to charts and data just trotted out by BoA Global Research chief strategist Michael Hartnett, we've marched back to the dot-com peak on multiple metrics. The price-to-book ratio has climbed to 5.3 - the dot-com high was 5.1- the forward price-to-earnings ratio is near record levels, and the Shiller CAPE metric – which calculates the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio - is flirting with territory that preceded collapses in 1929, 2000 and 2021. If the charts are to be believed, we are again on the precipice of history and in danger of crashing back through that memory hole – but Dollar Bill is not quick to agree. Start with tech: half the US S&P is made up of AI and other megacap companies - think giants such as Nvidia - which are not just surviving, but thriving. And they are punching out big earnings, unlike the vapourware hucksters of the Y2K era. Howard Marks, the doyen of market sense and founder of one of the world's largest distressed securities investors, Oaktree Capital Management, doesn't think the Magnificent Seven are overvalued. He believes the problem lies elsewhere and points to the rest of the market, which has lost touch with profit and discipline. Throw in Rick Rieder, the BlackRock bond lord, who says, 'we're in the best investing environment ever'. Reider points to record buybacks, mountains of idle cash waiting to be deployed, sturdier earnings and the possibility of 100+ basis points of rate easings still to come. For small caps, this is not just encouragement - it's a lifeline. Still sceptical? Marks recently revisited his memo, which offered a seminal dot-com warning that made him famous. He has now added a smart addendum: yes, we have froth, but not the mass hysteria that precedes true market blows. If Wall Street's big hat brigade can't all agree the sky is falling, what about Down Under, particularly in the local small-cap land? Top-ranked Australian boutique fund manager Maple-Brown Abbott is calling 2025 a 'golden age' for Aussie small caps. Between better gold prices, reduced cost pressures and rising cash flows, they say our scrappy juniors are quietly shifting from laggards to leaders on the Small Ords. The gold miners alone are carrying more weight in the index.
