Dire warning aid cuts are stopping vulnerable nations from preparing for climate disaster

Independent

2 days ago

A key figure in the push to tackle the climate crisis at the UN has warned that efforts among the world's poorest nations adapt to climate change are faltering, driven by crippling cuts to overseas aid programmes from Donald Trump coupled with the failure of rich countries to offer money to adapt at recent climate talks.
Speaking to The Independent, Evans Njewa - the lead climate negotiator for Malawi, and the current chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) bloc of 44 low-income countries at UN climate talks - revealed that efforts at the UN to drive climate adaptation and resilience have essentially stalled since countries failed to agree to a goal on adaptation financing at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, last year.
'Since COP29, negotiation rooms have become politically gridlocked on adaptation,' says Njewa, who last month attended UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany, ahead of the upcoming COP30 in Belém, Brazil, in November. 'The bruised trust over the absence of a dedicated outcome on adaptation finance at COP29 has had a real impact.'
With carbon emissions continuing to rise year-on-year – and a climate sceptic administration in the White House for the next four years – experts are now openly admitting that a key global temperature goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is likely to be missed, and as a result adapting to climate change must become a priority.
'1.5°C is now looking to be exceeded,' said Kate Levick, an associate director at the climate think tank E3G, at London Climate Action Week last month. 'We need to reach net zero as soon as possible - but we also need to recognise the importance of resilience at the same time.'
Climate adaptation and resilience was centre-stage at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, when rich countries pledged to double adaptation financing for developing countries by 2025. But that deal is about to expire, leaving LDCs facing an uncertain future at a time when they would like to be developing policy to address already-devastating impacts of climate change.
The LDC group is pushing for a new target to triple adaptation finance by 2030, says Njewa. But with no new target is adopted, countries have been left unable to develop or implement national adaptation plans, with Njewa revealing that at least seven countries have recently put on hold plans that had been developed over several years due to the lack of funding.
'How can we be expected to develop detailed technical blueprints, when there's no signal that the necessary financing will be made available to implement them,' he says.
'The situation is deeply unjust and a threat to human survival. But the real loss here is far greater than the budget line: It is the erosion of trust, the waste of hard-earned momentum, and the sidelining of communities that cannot afford to wait.'
Gridlocked talks between national governments come as individual aid programmes financing climate adaptation warn that their funding streams have been gutted in recent months, largely as a result of the Trump Administration's termination of nearly 90 per cent of USAID programmes earlier this year.
One such programme is LIFE-AR: An effort launched at the COP24 climate conference in 2018, which is focused on helping the governments of LDCs strengthen their institutions and systems to meet the challenge of climate change. Like a lot of climate adaptation initiatives, it sounds technical on paper - but over the past seven years it has transformed how governments of some of the world's poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia approach adaptation. In particular, it pushes for some 70 per cent of adaptation finance is channeled to the local level, to support everything from improved irrigation systems, to tree planting efforts, and adopting climate-smart agriculture.
USAID cuts earlier this year took away some £4.9m from LIFE-AR's budget: A cut that puts a lot of the invaluable work the group had been doing in its tracks.
'This has had a tremendous impact on countries that were starting investments on the ground,' says Tracy Kajumba, director of LIFE-AR. 'It breaks the trust between governments and communities, and leaves people exposed to further climate hazards.'
Another key player in LDC climate adaptation is non-profit FINCA International, which works in some of the world's most challenging places to provide financing solutions and other tools to help communities become more resilient to the impact of climate change. In Tajikistan, for example, FINCA is offering climate adaptation loans for drip irrigation and greenhouses; in DR Congo, it is part of a sustainable agriculture project training households in practices including fish farming and beekeeping; and in Malawi, it is providing agricultural loans that are insured against cyclones.
In the wake of aid cuts from the US and other countries, FINCA is now facing big challenges: According to Adam O'Kane, executive director of FINCA UK, the non-profit is facing a funding shortfall of $5-8m this year.
'The fundraising landscape overall has become much more challenging, making it harder to raise the necessary funding for our mission which is to develop innovative and sustainable solutions that end global poverty,' says O'Kane. 'The fundraising teams are having to focus a lot on new business opportunities, and we are trying to build relationships with those organisations who are stepping up to help plug the gaps - but it is certainly a challenge.'
Even before the setbacks of the last year, adaptation efforts were struggling to generate funds. The 2024 Adaptation Gap from the UN Environmental Programme found that the estimated adaptation finance needs for small island states and LDCs respectively stood at $4.8bn per year and $40bn per year this decade - but actual flows of finance only reached $1.4bn and $11bn for each group in 2022.
'Adaptation finance has increased in the last decade, but still not at the pace it's needed,' says Nella Canales, from the Stockholm Environment Institute, and one of the authors of the report. 'This increase is also threatened by the upcoming change in the development finance landscape.'
Some in the climate space, particularly when it comes to renewable energy, are pushing for the private sector to play a much bigger role in climate finance efforts. But so far, private financiers have been reluctant to participate in adaptation, with an average of just $1.5bn out of $63bn in tracked adaptation finance across 2021/22 coming from private sources. Experts warn that aid will be hard to replace in adaptation efforts, given the low incomes of many climate-vulnerable people as well as the difficulties making adaptation programmes profit-making.
'There is definitely a role for private actors in financing adaptation, but it will not cover all needs, especially not for those who are most vulnerable, for whom aid will remain key,' says Canales.
'Most adaptation projects are public goods that are not attractive for private sector operators,' adds Tracy Kajumba, from LIFE-AR. 'A balance must be struck between diversifying finance with private money, but also ensuring that the most vulnerable communities, who may have zero economic assets, are not excluded.'