Explained: Have Gold Prices Peaked? Know Why Yellow Metal Is Not Gaining Much Despite US Strikes On Iran
Gold prices in India are also trading flat or marginally lower up by 0.01% on the MCX in the opening trade on Monday despite US' direct involvement in the Iran-Israel war.
Gold has generally remained a safe haven asset amid global political and economic uncertainties. Its prices often increase whenever market uncertainties are high and investor sentiments turn risk-off. However, during the ongoing Iran-Israel war, gold prices have not reacted much despite escalations. Despite the US's direct involvement in the war by striking Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, gold prices are trading lower by 0.19% in the international market.
Gold prices in India are also trading flat or marginally lower up by 0.01% on the MCX in the opening trade on Monday, as of 10:00 am. According to traders, gold prices are trading lower in the international market but are flat in India bolstered by the price depreciation.
The Indian rupee on Monday declined 17 paise to 86.72 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday as global crude oil prices surged following the US's attack on Iran's nuclear sites.
'Gold prices saw an initial spike following the US strikes on Iran over the weekend but failed to hold those gains, reinforcing the view that the bullion rally may have peaked for now," said Aksha Kamboj, vice-president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association and executive chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures.
The US on Saturday night conducted precise airstrikes on Iran's deeply-buried Fordow nuclear plant using bunker-buster bombs through B-2 Spirit.
Rahul Kalantri, vice-president (commodities) of Mehta Equities, said, 'Gold and silver prices hovered near $3,360 and $36 per ounce, respectively, on Monday, remaining volatile as tensions escalated in the Middle East after the US joined Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear sites."
According to experts, gold prices surged on the first day of Iran-Israel war and factored in this factor to a large extent.
'In seven days of the ongoing Israel-Iran war, gold surged on the first day. But, after that, though tensions have escalated, gold is not reacting. It shows this factor has matured," Ajay Kedia of Kedia Advisory told CNBC Awaaz recently.
He, however, said it has been noticed in the past that during such escalations, gold takes a stepback and then makes a recovery. 'For that, gold needs to rise above the $3,500 level in the international market."
Spot gold prices on Monday fell by 0.25% to $3,377.20 an ounce in the international market.
What's Next For Gold?
US President Donald Trump has warned of further military action if Iran resists peace, intensifying fears and boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
Kamboj said gold is probably looking for retaliatory action from Iran before it surges to a new high.
Apart from the West Asia tensions, bullion markets are also awaiting other factors like US economic data and speech from US Fed officials.
Concerns about rising inflation driven by higher oil prices, the prospect of fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025, and more attractive safe-haven alternatives are all weighing on gold despite growing tensions in West Asia. Key events to watch this week include Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress and the upcoming US PCE inflation data, although the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict remains the most immediate market catalyst, he said.
Mehta Equities' Kalantri said, 'Investors now turn to upcoming U.S. economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including a two-day congressional testimony by Chair Jerome Powell, to gauge the Fed's response amid rising risks from tariffs and conflict."
Gold has support at $3,335-$3,315 while resistance is at $3,380-3,400. Silver has support at $35.75-35.50 while resistance is at $36.35-36.55. In rupee terms, gold has support at Rs 98,650-98,350 while resistance is at Rs 99,550-99,840. Silver has support at Rs 105,550-1,04,700 while resistance is at Rs 1,07,150-1,08,000, he said.
In Mumbai, the price of gold stood at Rs 92,300 per 10 grams for 22-carat and Rs 1,00,690 per 10 grams for 24-carat.
Recently, brokerage house Quant Mutual Fund in its 'Factsheet for June 2025' also said gold has peaked out and might correct by 12-15% in the next two months.
'Gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15% in dollar terms over the next two months. However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive, and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals," Quant Mutual Fund stated.
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Gold Gold price gold prices
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New Delhi, India, India
First Published:
June 23, 2025, 10:17 IST
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