How could Iran retaliate after US strikes its nuclear programme?

Irish Examiner

3 hours ago

Iran has spent decades building multi-tiered military capabilities at home and across the region that were at least partly aimed at deterring the United States from attacking it.
By entering Israel's war, the US may have removed the last rationale for holding them in reserve.
That could mean a wave of attacks on US forces in the Middle East, an attempt to close a key bottleneck for global oil supplies, or a dash to develop a nuclear weapon with what remains of Iran's disputed programme after American strikes on three key sites.
A decision to retaliate against the US and its regional allies would give Iran a far larger target bank and one that is much closer than Israel, allowing it to potentially use its missiles and drones to greater effect.
The US and Israel have far superior capabilities, but those have not always proven decisive in America's recent history of military interventions in the region.
Since Israel started the war with a surprise bombardment of Iran's military and nuclear sites on June 13, Iranian officials from the supreme leader down have warned the US to stay out, saying it would have dire consequences for the entire region.
It should soon be clear whether those were empty threats or a grim forecast.
One theory is that Iran's next move might be to target the Strait of Hormuz.
The narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf sees 20% of all oil traded globally pass, and at its narrowest point it is just 21 miles wide. Any disruption there could send oil prices soaring worldwide and hit American pocket.
A satellite image shows vehicles at the Fordo enrichment facility in Iran on June 20 (Maxar Technologies/AP)
Iran boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and thousands of naval mines that could potentially make the strait impassable, at least for a time. It could also fire missiles from its long Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen's Houthi rebels, have done in the Red Sea.
The US, with its 5th Fleet stationed in nearby Bahrain, has long pledged to uphold freedom of navigation in the strait and would respond with far superior forces.
But even a relatively brief firefight could paralyse shipping traffic and spook investors, causing oil prices to spike and generating international pressure for a ceasefire.
Another theory is for Tehran to attack US bases and allies in the region.
The US has tens of thousands of troops stationed in the Middle East, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran – and much closer than Israel.
Those bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defences as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones.
Even Israel, which is several hundred miles further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire.
Iran could also choose to attack key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for US involvement in the war. A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 – claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran – briefly cut the kingdom's oil production in half.
Iran could also opt to activate its regional allies.
Tehran's so-called Axis of Resistance – a network of militant groups across the Middle East, is a shadow of what it was before the war ignited by Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel out of the Gaza Strip – but it still has some formidable capabilities.
Israel's 20-month war in Gaza has severely diminished the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups, and Israel mauled Lebanon's Hezbollah last autumn, killing most of its top leadership and devastating much of southern Lebanon, making its involvement unlikely.
But Iran could still call on the Houthis, who had threatened to resume their attacks in the Red Sea if the US entered the war, and allied militias in Iraq. Both have drone and missile capabilities that would allow them to target the United States and its allies.
Iran could also seek to respond through militant attacks further afield, as it is widely accused of doing in the 1990s with an attack on a Jewish community centre in Argentina that was blamed on Iran and Hezbollah.
It is also feared Tehran may now sprint towards nuclear arms.
It could be days or weeks before the full impact of the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites is known.
But experts have long warned that even joint US and Israeli strikes would only delay Iran's ability to develop a weapon, not eliminate it.
That is because Iran has dispersed its programme across the country to several sites, including hardened, underground facilities.
Iran would likely struggle to repair or reconstitute its nuclear programme while Israeli and US warplanes are circling overhead. But it could still decide to fully end its co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and abandon the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and tested a nuclear weapon three years later, but it had the freedom to develop its programme without punishing air strikes.
Iran insists its programme is peaceful, though it is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60%, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA assess Iran has not had an organised military nuclear programme since 2003.
Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East but does not acknowledge having such weapons.