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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Qatar's LNG Warning Highlights Europe's Fragile Energy Strategy
The race has been on to secure new liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies for Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. LNG at that point became the key global emergency energy source as it is quick to secure and to move, unlike pipelined energy that requires time-consuming infrastructure build-out and contract negotiations before it can be moved anywhere. Europe was especially in need of such supplies to compensate for the energy it has bought for decades from Russia without questioning Moscow's long-term strategic motivation for offering such enormous quantities of cheap gas and oil. This was simply to ensure minimal pushback from Europe when President Vladimir Putin began his long-flagged objective to recapture those parts of Europe that were once part of the U.S.S.R., as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The strategy worked perfectly in 2008 with Russia's foray into the independent European sovereign state of Georgia, and again in the 2014 invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region – a practice run for what would happen in 2022. It would have worked as well in that year too, with early European dithering about taking any meaningful actions against Russia, but for the strong intervention of the U.S., Great Britain, and France, who could see that if this invasion of Ukraine was not opposed then the rest of Europe would follow. Staggeringly now, a crucial source of these compensatory LNG supplies to Europe – Qatar – is under threat from the continent's own sustainability law in question is the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which according to the official blurb: '[Aims to] foster sustainable and responsible corporate behaviour in companies' operations and across their global value chains. The new rules will ensure that companies in scope identify and address adverse human rights and environmental impacts of their actions inside and outside Europe.' It further requires firms to integrate sustainability into their core business strategies, address impacts on the environment and society, and establish transition plans aligned with the Paris Agreement's climate goals. All this is focused on European Union (E.U.) companies with over 1,000 employees and a worldwide turnover exceeding EUR450 million (USD514 million), and non-E.U. companies with a turnover exceeding EUR450 million within the E.U. Failure to adhere to some of its sharper strictures can results in extremely severe punishments for transgressors. One particularly eye-catching punishment is that companies found in breach of these conditions can be fined up to 5% of their global turnover or be required to compensate affected individuals and communities. Unsurprisingly, for those countries in a more emerging stage of development than those who drafted the law (that is, nearly most of the major oil and gas suppliers around the world), some of these conditions are problematic. For Qatar, they are apparently infuriating, with its Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad al-Kaabi calling the legislation 'ridiculous' at a forum in Doha in December. He also threatened at that point to end all LNG supplies to the E.U. if any of his country's companies were subject to penalties by dint of the CSDDD. Matters have now escalated, according to a senior E.U. security source spoken to by last week, with a letter from al-Kaabi to the European Commission (the executive branch of the E.U.) reiterating the threat of cut-off from Qatar's LNG supplies if the Directive is not modified to ensure that its companies do not face any penalties. Equally unsurprisingly, according not the E.U. source, Europe is taking this threat very seriously. It should certainly do so, as Qatar has many more willing buyers for its LNG than Europe has sellers of the gas to choose from. In Europe's case, it took many months of very tough negotiations led by the U.S. to turn Qatar from a state whose main supply priority was China before the Russia invasion of 2022 to a 'major non-NATO ally' of the U.S. and its European allies as former President Joe Biden put it at the time, as also analysed in depth in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Information received by just after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 from impeccable security sources indicated that China had been broadly told by Russia of its plans for a 'large-scale special operation' in Ukraine months before it happened, not just prior to the 4 February 2022 start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, as many reports have it. Indeed, China concluded several major LNG deals with Qatar a year before, beginning with the signing of a 10-year purchase and sales agreement by the China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and Qatar Petroleum (QP) for 2 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, and multiple similar deals followed. However, following hard negotiations with the U.S., May 2022 saw Qatar sign a declaration of intent on energy cooperation with Germany aimed at becoming its key supplier of LNG. These plans would run in parallel with, but were likely to be finished significantly sooner than, the plans for Qatar to also make available to Germany sizeable supplies of LNG from the Golden Pass terminal on the Gulf Coast of Texas. QatarEnergy holds a 70% stake in the project, with the U.S.'s ExxonMobil holding the remainder. Following on from these developments, December 2022 saw two sales and purchase agreements signed between QatarEnergy and the U.S.'s ConocoPhillips to export LNG to Germany for at least 15 years from 2026. As of now, Qatar remains a major LNG supplier to the E.U. – its third largest, in fact – having shipped around 10 million metric tonnes of the gas to the continent last year. As one of these three is Russia (in number two position, after the U.S.) – and the E.U. is considering phasing out all Russian LNG and gas entering it by the end of 2027 – Qatar's share was set to rise dramatically. This dovetails with the country's own plans to more than double its current 77 million mtpa production to 160 million mtpa by 2030. By that time, it will account for at least 40% of all new LNG supplies across the globe, making it even more of crucial energy and geopolitical ally to the West, and to China, Russia, and countries in their sphere of influence. Such a situation would leave the U.S. with a huge supply gap to fill very quickly, although industry projections are that its LNG supply will increase by at least 75 million mtpa (from over 90 million mtpa currently) by 2030. This would also accord with the recent E.U. pledge to buy USD750 million of U.S. energy in the next three years, with much of this increase expected to come from the LNG sector. That said, the E.U. may be at least as concerned by the fact that it would leave Europe's emergency energy supply almost entirely in the hands of Washington. Given President Donald Trump's comments about not even helping to defend fellow European NATO members from attack – as the U.S. is obliged to do by Article 5 of the Treaty -- if they do not increase their defence spending to what he considers a sufficient level, the E.U.'s leadership may ponder whether he would take the same view on the U.S.'s commitment to energy supplies to the continent as well should it be attacked by Russia. In short, the loss of Qatari LNG to Europe – and more supplies going to China -- would be catastrophic for Europe – and indeed for the broader Western Alliance even now. And it would be considerably worse if Beijing launches its own 'Special Military Operation' to 'reunite' Taiwan with its 'rightful motherland' mainland China in 2027 – the date Chinese President Xi Jinping has told his military to prepare for. By Simon Watkins for More Top Reads From this article on
New York Times
an hour ago
- New York Times
A Nuclear Reactor on the Moon? Come Again?
The acting administrator of NASA has issued a directive to fast-track efforts to put a nuclear reactor on the moon. 'To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly,' Sean Duffy, the secretary of transportation whom President Trump appointed last month as temporary leader of the space agency, wrote in the directive, which was sent out on Thursday. Politico was first to report on the directive. In it, Mr. Duffy cites plans by China and Russia to put a reactor on the moon by the mid-2030s as part of a partnership to build a base there. If they were first, China and Russia 'could potentially declare a keep-out zone' that would inhibit what the United States could do there, Mr. Duffy said. The directive calls for the appointment of a NASA official to oversee the effort within 30 days and for a request seeking proposals from commercial companies to be issued within 60 days. The reactor will be required to generate at least 100 kilowatts of electrical power — enough for about 80 households in the United States — and to be ready to launch in late 2029. One lunar day lasts four weeks on Earth — two weeks of continual sunshine followed by two weeks of cold darkness. That harsh cycle makes it difficult for a spacecraft or a moon base to survive with just solar panels and batteries. Current exploration efforts, both by NASA and by the Chinese-Russian partnership, are focusing on the south polar region, where the sun is never high over the horizon and the bottoms of some craters lie in permanent shadows. Over the years, NASA has financed nuclear reactor research, including the awarding of three $5 million contracts in 2022 to companies developing initial designs. Those designs were smaller, producing 40 kilowatts and weighing under six metric tons. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
India calls out EU and U.S.' trade with Russia after Trump threatens steeper tariffs on New Delhi
India said it was is being "targeted" by the U.S. and the European Union over its imports of Russian oil after U.S. President Donald Trump in an overnight social media post threatened New Delhi with much steeper tariffs. India began importing oil from Russia only after traditional supplies were diverted to Europe following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the country's foreign ministry said in a statement late Monday. The ministry called out the EU and the U.S. saying, "it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia. Unlike our case, such trade is not even a vital national compulsion [for them]." The EU's bilateral trade with Russia stood at 67.5 billion euros ($78.1 billion) in 2024, while its services trade in 2023 was at 17.2 billion euros, according to European Commission data. Citing that data, India said the bloc's trade was "significantly more" than India's total trade with Russia. Data from the Indian embassy in Moscow showed bilateral trade between New Delhi and Moscow reached a record $68.7 billion for the year ended March 2025, nearly 5.8 times higher than the pre-pandemic trade of $10.1 billion. The EU, meanwhile, was Russia's third-biggest trade partner in 2024, accounting for 38.4% of the bloc's total trade with the country, sliding from being Moscow's top partner in 2020. EU's goods trade with Russia dropped to 67.5 billion euros in 2024 from 257.5 billion euros in 2021. India's response comes after Trump threatened on Monday that he would be "substantially raising" the tariffs on India, although he did not specify the level of the higher tariffs. The U.S. president had threatened a 25% duty on Indian exports, as well as an unspecified "penalty" last week. He also accused India of buying discounted Russian oil and "selling it on the Open Market for big profits." Russia became the leading oil supplier to India since the war in Ukraine began, increasing imports from just under 100,000 barrels per day before the invasion, or a 2.5% of its total imports, to more than 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, or 39%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's report earlier this year. "The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability," the country said in its statement. According to the International Energy Agency, 70% of Russian crude was exported to India in 2024. India said oil imports were meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer. India has in the past defended its oil purchases from Russia, with Hardeep Singh Puri, the country's energy minister, saying in an interview last month with CNBC that New Delhi helped stabilize global energy prices and was encouraged by the U.S. to do so. "If people or countries had stopped buying at that stage, the price of oil would have gone up to 130 dollars a barrel. That was a situation in which we were advised, including by our friends in the United States, to please buy Russian oil, but within the price cap," Puri said. India also took aim at the U.S, saying the country continues to import uranium hexafluoride for its nuclear industry, palladium for the electric-vehicle industry, as well as fertilizers and chemicals. U.S. bilateral trade with Russia in 2024 stood at $5.2 billion, compared with nearly $36 billion in 2021, government data showed. The U.S. has not imposed any "reciprocal tariffs" on Russia. "In this background, the targeting of India is unjustified and unreasonable. Like any major economy, India will take all necessary measures to safeguard its national interests and economic security," New Delhi said.
