Ross Garnaut: Prophet with a sunny vision of our glorious future

Sydney Morning Herald

11-05-2025

What we need is some sort of economist prophet who can help us overcome this existential threat, not an army of blinkered economists telling us all that matters is raising our material standard of living.
Fortunately, among the profession's abundance of unproductive thinkers is a lone prophetic, and so productive, thinker, Professor Ross Garnaut, who sees not only how we can minimise the economic cost of the transition to clean energy, but also what we can do for an encore. What we can do to fill the vacuum left by the looming collapse of our fossil fuel export business (which, by chance, happens to be our highest-productivity industry).
Because economists are such incurious people, Garnaut seems to have been the first among them to notice that, purely by chance, Australia's natural endowment also includes a relative abundance of sun and wind.
Until now, we thought these were non-resources and of little or no commercial value. It took Garnaut to point out that, in a post-carbon world, they had the potential be our new-found comparative advantage. To provide us with a whole new way of making a bundle from exports, while generating many new jobs for the miners to move to.
When you add the possibility of structural change to the rules of conventional economics, you get what's a scary thought for many economists: maybe our natural endowment isn't ordained by the economic gods to be unchangeable through all eternity.
Maybe there are interventions fallible governments should be making to move our economic activity from one dimension of our natural endowment to another. Maybe such a switch is too high-risk and involves too many 'positive externalities' (monetary benefits than can't be captured by the business doing the investing) for us to wait for market forces to take us to this brave new world.
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Maybe changing circumstances can change the nature of our comparative advantage in international trade, meaning the government has to nudge the private sector in a new direction.
It was Garnaut who first had the vision of transforming Australia into a 'Superpower' in a world of ubiquitous renewable energy. And it was he who uncovered the facts that made this goal plausible.
Exporting our fossil fuels is cheap, whereas exporting renewable energy would be much more expensive. So whereas it was more economic to send our coal and iron ore overseas to be turned into steel, in the post-carbon world it soon will be more economic to produce green iron and other green metals in Australia and then export them.
In a speech last week, Garnaut acknowledged that, in its first term, the Albanese government began to lay the policy foundations for the Superpower project. The economic principles are set out clearly and well by Treasury's 'national interest framework' for A Future made in Australia, released after last year's budget, he says.
The re-elected Albanese government has already restated its commitment to the project. Garnaut says there's much more for the government to do in creating the right incentives for our manufacturers to re-organise and expand.
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Research sponsored by his Superpower Institute finds that Australian exports of goods embodying renewable energy could reduce global emissions by up to 10 per cent. So we can contribute disproportionately to global decarbonisation by supplying goods embodying renewable energy that the high-income economies of Northeast Asia and Europe cannot supply at reasonable cost from their own resources.
This would 'generate export income for Australians vastly in excess of that provided by the gas and coal industries that will decline as the world moves to net zero emissions over the next few decades'.
Garnaut concludes: 'The new industries are large enough to drive restoration of growth in Australian productivity and living standards after the dozen years of stagnation that began in 2013.'
The present fashion of obsessing with productivity improvement for its own sake is counterproductive and probably won't achieve much. We should get our priorities right and focus on fixing our most fundamental problems – unfairness between the generations, action on climate change and fully exploiting the opportunities presented by our newfound strength in renewable energy – and let productivity look after itself.