Texas redistricting fight goes national as GOP, Dems prepare for more battles over future House maps

Yahoo

a day ago

The battle over redistricting in Texas has been one of the biggest stories in politics over the past week. Republicans in the Lone Star State are hoping to approve new congressional maps that could secure the GOP five additional seats in the House of Representatives if they're in place in time for the 2026 midterms.
That plan is stalled at the moment, however, because dozens of Democrats have fled the state in order to prevent the legislature from having enough representatives present to consider the proposal. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has threatened to have the absent Democrats arrested or remove them from office, but so far, they have remained committed to staying away.
The partisan battle over redistricting that started in Texas has quickly spread across the country. Republicans are eyeing other red states where they might be able to collect a few additional seats with new maps. Blue-state Democrats have promised to counterbalance any gains the GOP makes by redrawing the lines in their own states.
Here's a breakdown of where things stand in states other than Texas that are considering redistricting and what it might mean if those plans become a reality.
Republican targets
Ohio
Potential swing: Two or three more seats for Republicans
Where things stand: Unlike most states, Ohio is obligated to redraw its congressional districts because of unique laws in the state. Republicans already hold 10 of the state's 15 seats in the House, but the experts say they could pick up at least two more by targeting Democratic districts in Akron and Toledo. Some Republicans reportedly have eyes on a third seat in Cincinnati, but state laws could make that a trickier task, according to the Columbus Dispatch.
Ohio has until Nov. 30 to approve its new map if it's going to be in use for the 2026 midterms, but there are important procedural deadlines before then that could limit how dramatically the GOP is able to redraw the state's congressional lines.
Missouri
Potential swing: One additional seat for Republicans
Where things stand: Though they haven't officially started the process yet, Republicans in Missouri appear open to redrawing the state's congressional maps. Currently, the GOP holds six of the eight seats in the state. Only one of the remaining districts, centered in Kansas City, seems to be in play. The other Democrat-led district covers St. Louis, an overwhelmingly blue city that would be very difficult to break up into multiple districts because of protections in the Voting Rights Act.
Indiana
Potential swing: One or two more seats to Republicans
Where things stand: Vice President JD Vance traveled to Indianapolis on Thursday to urge Republican Gov. Mike Braun and state legislative leaders to move forward with redistricting. Braun has not publicly committed to redrawing the state's district lines, telling reporters only that he and other GOP leaders had listened to Vance's pitch.
Even if Republicans do get fully on board, there's only so much that the GOP can gain in the Hoosier State. They already control seven of the state's nine congressional districts. Both of the remaining districts have a dense Democratic voter base. One of them, which includes a number of Chicago suburbs, could be made more favorable to Republicans with some changes to district lines around the edges, experts told CNN. Flipping the other one would be a much harder task. Incumbent Democrat Andre Carson won that seat, which includes most of Indianapolis, by 40 points in last year's elections.
Florida
Potential swing: Three additional seats for Republicans
Where things stand: The GOP speaker of Florida's House of Representatives announced Thursday that he's forming a select committee to look into redrawing the state's congressional districts with the backing of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Republicans hold 20 of Florida's 28 congressional seats, in part because of a map DeSantis signed into law three years ago that flipped four blue seats to red.
Republicans are reportedly eyeing three districts in South Florida, a region that has been steadily shifting toward the GOP in recent years, as their primary targets for increasing their representation in Congress.
State laws could complicate their efforts, though. An amendment added to the Florida Constitution in 2010 prohibits lawmakers from drawing districts for partisan gain or in a way that deliberately diminishes the voting power of minorities.
Democrat targets
California
Potential swing: Up to five additional seats for Democrats
Where things stand: California Gov. Gavin Newsom has pledged to 'fight fire with fire' and push to redraw his state's maps if Texas goes through with its redistricting plan. Democrats currently hold 43 of California's 52 congressional seats. Newsom shared a map on social media that theoretically could turn the entire state blue, but reports suggest that a draft plan under consideration by state lawmakers would match Texas Republicans by flipping five seats to their favor.
Under current law, California's congressional map is drawn by a nonpartisan independent committee. Voters would have to approve any proposal to give that power back to the state Legislature. Newsom has said he's willing to call a special election to put the issue on the ballot, but only if Texas passes its new map first.
New York
Potential swing: Unclear
Where things stand: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has been equally adamant that her state should redraw its maps to counter the GOP's moves in Texas and elsewhere. Democrats currently hold 19 of the state's 26 congressional seats. Though analysts say there are ways Democrats could manipulate the map in their favor, so far it's uncertain how they might do that or how many seats they'd attempt to flip.
Like California, Hochul's state's districts are drawn by an independent commission. But New York's laws would require a much lengthier process to give that ability back to lawmakers, making it highly unlikely that the new maps would be in place in time for next year's midterms.
Illinois
Potential swing: Unclear
Where things stand: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker has been one of the most prominent faces in the Texas redistricting battle because of his support for Democrats in their effort to block Republicans from approving their new map. Pritzker has said that redistricting in his own state is 'on the table.' Unlike in California and New York, lawmakers in Illinois do have the power to redraw maps on their own. But the GOP only holds three of the state's 17 congressional seats under current district lines, which are among the most heavily gerrymandered in the country, according to rankings by 538. That could make it hard for Democrats to draw up maps that gain them any additional seats.
Maryland
Potential swing: One additional seat for Democrats
Where things stand: The Democratic leader of Maryland's House of Delegates has proposed a bill that would trigger new maps if any other state redistricts outside of the normal 10-year cycle. The problem for Democrats, though, is that they already hold seven of Maryland's eight congressional seats. Turning that lone red district blue could be difficult because any new map would have to navigate around Chesapeake Bay to connect Democratic areas in the west to the Republican-dense areas in the east.