No-confidence motion passed on Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff. What next?

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2 days ago

If you've missed the past few days, Tasmania could be headed for a fourth election in just seven years, after a successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff passed on Thursday.
The motion — put forward by Labor, passed 18 to 17 — after about 10 hours of debate over two days, where all 35 lower house MPs spoke.
It had the backing of the Greens, as well as crossbenchers Andrew Jenner, Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland.
The path forward for Tasmania is unclear … and a lot of questions remain.
Yes.
Mr Rockliff has stared down this motion as well as calls for him to hand over the leadership reins to one of his colleagues.
He's determined to leave his fate in the hands of Tasmanians, not the parliament.
Not definitely, but probably.
The premier says he will be asking Governor Barbara Baker (who's taken a very poorly timed holiday but will be back soon) to dissolve the parliament.
Given we're just 15 months into the parliament, Governor Baker could first ask Labor's Dean Winter to see if he can form government — but he's ruled out doing so with the support of the Greens, which he would need in order to get to 18 seats.
She also might check if there's another Liberal MP who could command the support of the parliament.
At this stage though, none of them have the will (or maybe the numbers in the party room) to roll their leader.
The earliest an election could be held is July 19.
There needs to be at least 33 days between when the parliament is dissolved and polling day.
Parliament could be dissolved on Tuesday, after the premier requests for the appropriation bills to be passed that will provide the government with the funds to pay the bills.
Tasmania's AFL club is in serious danger of never taking to the field.
In recent days, club leaders have been voicing concerns about the impact of an early election, because it would push out the timelines for the construction of the proposed Macquarie Point stadium.
A vote was due in the parliament on whether to approve the stadium in coming months.
The stadium is a condition of the state's deal for the 19th AFL licence, but there's the potential it may not survive an election if it's seen as too politically toxic by either of the major parties.
It's also possible a swathe of anti-stadium MPs could also be voted to the parliament, if an election is called, and end its chances.
Club presidents watching from afar haven't been impressed either.
Labor leader Dean Winter says he moved the no-confidence motion as he couldn't "stand idly by" and let the state's debt mount.
Tasmania's debt will hit $5.2 billion this year, and is due to more than double by 2029.
It wasn't clear when that debt would stop growing either.
The treasurer's plan to get the budget back in black included slimming the public service and potentially selling public assets, both options opposed by the opposition.
Labor's no-confidence motion also listed the government's failure to deliver major infrastructure projects, namely the Spirit of Tasmania vessel replacement debacle.
That project saw new ferries purchased without the necessary berth for them to dock at Devonport, meaning they can't be used for some years.
The state budget handed down by Treasurer Guy Barnett last week hasn't been passed by the parliament yet.
There are some provisions in the Financial Management Act that allow for the money to continue flowing, but they only allow for about two months.
It won't be a full budget but will ensure critical services can continue and public servants like park rangers, nurses, and court staff can continue to be paid.
Given the uncertainty over the situation … the premier has sought approval from the lieutenant-governor, who is acting in Governor Baker's absence, for the parliament to return on Tuesday, and for a bill to be passed that will allow the money to keep flowing.
The opposition has also agreed to this and will support that bill.
Tasmania is gaining a reputation for instability, and an election after just 15 months is unheard of in modern times.
But it's nothing compared to some of the short-lived parliaments and governments of the past.
Election analyst Kevin Bonham said this would be the second shortest parliament, after one elected in 1912, which lasted just 14 months.
Meanwhile, in 1909, the Labour government lasted a week.
As an extra kick in the guts to those who think MPs have been a rabble this week … politicians are now likely to get a $30,000 pay rise.
Tasmania's Industrial Commission recommended a 22.36 per cent pay rise to the base rate of about $140,000, which has been frozen since 2018.
It says that's in line with inflation and the wage rises.
It could have been disallowed by a vote of both parliamentary houses, and on Tuesday the premier said he would move to block it.
That now appears unlikely, unless it can somehow be added to Tuesday's order of business.
It might help fund some campaigns!