What are realistic expectations for Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy? What the history tells us

New York Times

13-05-2025

Kevin O'Connell gave an illuminating quote last week. The Minnesota Vikings coach was being interviewed on 'The Rich Eisen Show,' and Eisen asked him multiple questions about young quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Eventually, O'Connell turned snarky.
'I know everybody is wildly concerned about these reps on air,' O'Connell said. 'Let me put you at peace: (McCarthy) is taking plenty of snaps from Ryan Kelly, who happens to be a 10-year starting offensive center in this league.'
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O'Connell's point? The Vikings may be waiting to declare McCarthy the starter, but McCarthy is receiving the starter reps. This is instructive. O'Connell reiterated the team's belief in the 22-year-old while keeping the competitive spirit alive for McCarthy's continued development.
Maximizing what a quarterback can be does not mean coddling him. Praising and uplifting are necessary, but not to a degree that they prevent progress.
The general interest in McCarthy, to the degree that Eisen was peppering O'Connell about him, is appropriate. It's not just that McCarthy is a well-known, national championship-winning quarterback from Michigan (Eisen is also a Michigan grad, hence his particular interest). It's not just that McCarthy was the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's also that the Vikings, coming off a 14-win season, chose McCarthy over more proven options, including Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers.
Feeling 110%@jjmccarthy09 pic.twitter.com/ALkGvPmnyE
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) April 29, 2025
Minnesota's roster is loaded with veterans. The team is spending over $330 million on the current group, which ranks second most in the NFL behind the Buffalo Bills. O'Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have reshaped the organization's culture and brought regular-season success, but the next step must include playoff wins. All of these factors underscore the focus on McCarthy.
It makes sense to be optimistic about his projected path. Review the tape of the most relevant data point, last summer's preseason game between the Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders, and you'll notice the talent. McCarthy layered passes to the sideline. He efficiently climbed the pocket. He progressed in rhythm and kept his eyes downfield, displaying the processing ability the Vikings identified while evaluating him before the draft.
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Any skepticism is tied to the unknown: McCarthy's torn meniscus, his professional inexperience and the history of young quarterbacks. There are no apples-to-apples comparisons. Every quarterback differs, and no quarterback infrastructure is the same.
Still, exploring the past feels like a worthwhile exercise. In the last 20 seasons, teams starting rookie quarterbacks have won 40.1 percent of their games, according to TruMedia. Here are some of the best rookie seasons since the turn of the century:
C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix are three recent outliers. They share one characteristic: a lot of college experience. Each threw more than 800 passes in college, whereas McCarthy did not. He would have likely neared their attempts had he remained in college for his senior season like Daniels and Nix. McCarthy performed more consistently in high-leverage, third-down situations than Stroud.
Also, McCarthy's professional circumstances are better than theirs. He is in the driver's seat of a luxury sports car with all of the bells and whistles. Receiving corps? Elite. Offensive line? Revamped. Running back depth? Solid. A system designed by a quarterback for a quarterback? The Vikings have that, too.
Review the rest of the above rookie list; some have similar setups. Dak Prescott's head coach may have been Jason Garrett, and his offensive coordinator may have been Scott Linehan, but he was throwing to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. His running back was rookie Ezekiel Elliott, who amassed an eye-popping 1,631 yards and 15 touchdowns. Oh, by the way, three of Prescott's offensive linemen (Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin) earned first-team All-Pro honors.
Ben Roethlisberger's rookie offense was also stacked. He handed the ball off to Jerome Bettis. Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress were on the other end of his passes. First-team All-Pro offensive linemen Alan Faneca and Jeff Hartings protected him.
Three additional young debuts warrant mention: Deshaun Watson, Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes. Watson, who tore his ACL as a rookie in 2017, responded with a 4,165-yard, 26-touchdown season the following year. He played for offensive coach Bill O'Brien and had a safety valve in DeAndre Hopkins. Those 2018 Texans finished 11-5 and lost in the wild-card round. Love's first go-around did not earn the Packers a playoff spot, but he threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns once he was finally handed the reins three seasons into his career.
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Then there was Mahomes, whose launch has no comparison. He absorbed Andy Reid's offense for a year, then threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns, pushing Tom Brady's New England Patriots to the brink in the AFC Championship Game. It does not seem like hyperbole to say that the talent around him is analogous to what the Vikings offer. Two elite tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, protected Mahomes. He was also throwing to two dynamic weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Expecting McCarthy to produce anywhere near the level Mahomes did would be foolish. Watson's second season gives a roadmap for the loftiest expectations. Anything close to that would conjure Daunte Culpepper's impressive foray into the NFL a quarter of a century ago. Those 2000 Vikings earned 11 victories, won a playoff game and competed for an NFC title.
Chart a similar path, and McCarthy will warrant even more airtime from pundits like Eisen.