
Thai-Cambodia clashes live: Thai death toll rises to 'more than 20'
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has appealed to the United Nations Security Council to hold an emergency meeting on the issue as Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the current ASEAN chair, tries to broker a cessation of hostilities.
Here are two recent Nikkei Asia opinion articles on the crisis:
- Cambodia seeks justice, not conflict, in border dispute with Thailand
- Hun Sen's gamble: Why Cambodia ex-ruler turned on Thai ally Thaksin
Follow the latest developments in this live blog. (Thailand and Cambodia time)
11:25 a.m. Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters that he had received reports of "more than 20 deaths" and several people severely injured.
11:20 a.m. The Cambodian Mine Action and Victim Assistance Authority (CMAA) released a statement Friday saying that ground reports from local authorities and demining teams showed that Thailand had used cluster munitions in populated areas around Phnom Khmuoch, near the border.
"The use of cluster munitions -- especially in or near civilian areas -- is an unacceptable escalation. It shows complete disregard for human life, humanitarian principles and regional peace," said Ly Thuch, vice president of the CMAA.
Defense Ministry spokesperson Maly Socheata reiterated the accusation at a press conference and claimed it demonstrated Thailand's willingness to break international law. Thailand and Cambodia are not parties to the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the production, use and stockpiling of cluster munitions.
10:15 a.m. Indonesia's foreign ministry said that the country was closely following the development. "We are confident that the two neighboring countries will immediately return to peaceful means to settle their differences in line with the principles enshrined in the ASEAN Charter and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation," it said in a social media post.
10 a.m. Cambodian Defense Ministry spokesperson Chhum Socheat said on Friday that firing continued overnight but the intensity of shelling was less than the previous day. He also claimed that the Thai military was using surveillance drones in Preah Vihear province.
"At around 2 a.m., shots were fired from both sides along the border," Socheat said. "There has been an exchange of fire from last night until this morning. Our soldiers are in control and protecting all areas, but the Thais are still trying to fly drones to shoot at our areas."
Chhum Socheat did not comment on whether there were any casualties among civilians and military personnel. However, Met Measpheakdey, deputy governor of Oddar Meanchey province -- where firing was reported on Thursday -- said one civilian was killed and five others injured.
Thailand's Second Army Area, which is leading the fighting along the Thai border, also said clashes continued on Friday.
July 25, 7:50 a.m. The deputy spokesperson of Thailand's Ministry of Health, Varoth Chotpitayasunondh, has posted updated Thai casualty figures on his Facebook account. He said 13 civilians and one soldier were killed and 32 civilians and 14 soldiers injured.
July 24, 9:31 p.m. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim posted on social media that he spoke with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, this evening.
"In our conversations, in Malaysia's capacity as ASEAN Chair for 2025, I appealed directly to both leaders for an immediate ceasefire to prevent further hostilities and to create space for peaceful dialogue and diplomatic resolution," Anwar said.
"I welcome the positive signals and willingness shown by both Bangkok and Phnom Penh to consider this path forward."
7 p.m. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya expressed "deep concern" over military clashes between Cambodia and Thailand. Following such a conflict in May, "Japan has been working to encourage both countries to de-escalate the situation," he said in a statement.
"Japan urges both Cambodia and Thailand to exercise maximum restraint and strongly hopes that the tension between the two countries will be eased peacefully through dialogue," he said.
6:30 p.m. Thailand's benchmark SET stock index closed 0.58% lower on Thursday.
6:30 p.m. Cambodian government spokesman Pen Bona said in a news conference that Thursday's events will be added to the government's complaint to the International Court of Justice. "The clashes along the Cambodia-Thailand border will become an additional reason for Cambodia to file a complaint with the International Court of Justice," said Pen Bona.
6 p.m. Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai spoke to reporters after National Security Council and Cabinet meetings. "We condemn this act of violence, which does not comply with international law that has to be strictly adhered to," he said.
"We are not declaring war. ... We must try to talk to resolve the issue," he added, "but what happened was that Cambodia kept provoking us."
Asked whether the two countries will talk at the government level, Phumtham said: "We must wait for this to stop first, as we weren't the ones to initiate it. If there's sincerity towards each other, then we can talk."
5:30 p.m. Lt. Gen. Maly Socheata, spokeswoman for the Cambodian Defense Ministry, said in a press conference that Thailand had attacked eight locations in the Cambodian provinces of Oddar Meanchey and Preah Vihear. She did not say whether there had been any casualties on the Cambodian side of the border.
4:30 p.m. Thailand's Minister of Public Health Somsak Thepsuthin said 11 civilians and one soldier had died due to the clashes and 24 injured across the country, based on information available as of 2:15 p.m. "The loss of lives today is unacceptable," he said.
4:20 p.m. Loeung Sophon, a representative for the Cambodian labor NGO Central based in Thailand, told Nikkei Asia that Cambodian migrant workers are even more destabilized by the exit of Cambodian embassy staff on Thursday morning.
So far, he estimates that some 50,000 migrant workers have returned to Cambodia since June, ranging from those in construction to vendors and laborers on rubber farms. "Those who are still in Thailand really want to go back," he said.
4 p.m. The Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs has issued a statement on the crisis: "We are hopeful our two fellow ASEAN member states will resolve this issue in accordance with international law and the peaceful settlement of disputes," it said. "We urge both parties to extend due consideration and care to innocent civilians who may be affected by the ongoing conflict."
3.50 p.m. Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based security analyst with Janes - a defense intelligence group, told Nikkei Asia:
"It's not very useful to compare total numbers [of both countries' militaries] -- it's not like they're going to be lining up one-on-one along the border to see who has got more guys. This is about equipment, so whether the Thais have 370,000 or 372,000 men under arms is largely irrelevant.
"Assuming this escalates -- which is not a given -- this is about equipment more than numbers.
"Both belligerents have enough numbers on the ground in the area to make life very uncomfortable for the other side. The question is what can they bring to the fight in terms of hardware, and we've already seen what the Thais can bring -- F-16 jets, which the Cambodians are in no position to counter."
3:40 p.m. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told reporters in Kuala Lumpur that the situation is "concerning." He said he expected to speak to the leaders from Thailand and Cambodia later today.
"They are important members of ASEAN. They are very close to Malaysia," Anwar said. "The least you can expect is for them to just stand down and enter into negotiations."
He went on to explain that he had the two countries' interests at heart and stressed that both wanted to have a "peaceful and amicable resolution" to the conflict.
"Both want to keep ASEAN engaged. And we do precisely that," the prime minister said. "I still think peace is the only option available."
3:29 p.m. Thai Army said in a statement that it "continues to adhere to the principle of limited defensive operations, primarily targeting military objectives." The Thai Army said Cambodia's military action "clearly breaks the Geneva Conventions by using heavy weapons against civilian areas."
3:25 p.m. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand's suspended prime minister, told reporters: "Since the beginning, of course, we didn't want violence. But once it occurred, the military is well-prepared."
Regarding the dispute over who struck first, "As usual, they would say we fired first, but we live in a world where there are many tools that can show [the truth] to the world ... Cambodia is only losing its credibility more and more."
3:20 p.m. Former Malaysian senior diplomat Ilango Karuppannan said the Thai-Cambodian conflict "reflects long-standing historical grievances," especially regarding the unresolved border demarcation around the Preah Vihear area.
That this is happening under Malaysia's ASEAN chairmanship is "a real test of Malaysia's leadership and ASEAN's relevance."
"If ASEAN is seen as unable to manage tensions between its own members, it could seriously undermine its credibility and raise doubts about its role in regional peace and stability," he said.
Malaysia should consider convening an emergency meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers to urge restraint and encourage both sides to reactivate bilateral mechanisms like the Joint Border Commission, Karuppannan added.
He advised Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim personally to reach out to leaders of both countries to encourage de-escalation. "Alternatively, he may choose to appoint a trusted envoy to carry this out discreetly."
3 p.m. China says it is deeply concerned about the latest developments and hopes both sides will resolve the conflict through dialogue and consultation.
"Thailand and Cambodia are both China's friendly neighbors and important members of ASEAN," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiajun tells reporters, adding that China is willing to play a role in de-escalating the situation.
2:50 p.m. On its Facebook page the Royal Thai Army has invited Thais to post on social media, adding the hashtags #CambodiaShootsFirst #ThailandLovesPeaceButWhenItComesToWar,WeAreNotCowardly and #CambodiaOpenedFire
2:45 p.m. Some Cambodian residents in Oddar Meanchey province -- the Cambodian side of the disputed Ta Moan Thom temple area -- started evacuating, according to local news outlet Kiripost. In neighboring Banteay Meanchey province, the site of bordertown and casino hub Poipet city, some residents say they packed bags to be ready if they need to flee.
2:40 p.m. Cambodia's Defense Ministry laid out a different scenario from its Thai counterparts, claiming that Thai military activity started first.
Ministry spokeswoman Lt. Gen. Maly Socheata said in a statement that Thailand started the latest clash by ascending a path to Ta Moan Thom Temple and placed barbed wire around the base at 6:30 a.m.
She said Thai forces flew a drone for about two minutes at 7:04 a.m. "Then, at 8:30 AM, they opened fire, and by 8:46 AM, Thai invading forces had initiated an armed assault on Cambodian troops stationed at Ta Moan Thom Temple."
Cambodian troops returned fire at 8:47 a.m., the statement says, describing the move as the country's right to defend itself.
Fighting expanded later in the morning to the Ta Krabey Temple near Ta Moan Thom, the Phnom Khmao area in a separate area, and then a Thai F16 fighter jet dropped two bombs on a road leading to Wat Kaew Seekha Kiri Svarak Pagoda.
The statement asks the international community to condemn the incident as an aggression by Thai forces, and asks residents not to share unverified information, images or videos.
2:30 p.m. Thai government spokesperson Jirayu Huangsap confirmed that the Thai Air Force's six F-16 fighter jets have successfully completed an operation to support the army on the ground and returned to base. The army's regional command posted on Facebook that the Air Force has attacked two brigade headquarters of Cambodia around 11 a.m.
2:30 p.m. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra posted on X:
"Today, Hun Sen ordered the shooting into Thai territory early in the morning, firing first after laying bomb traps along the border, which is considered a violation of international law and the ethics of living together as good neighbors.
"Thailand has exercised patience and restraint, fully adhering to international law and fulfilling its duties as a good neighbor," he added. "From now on, Thai soldiers can respond according to strategic plans, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can rightfully implement various measures."
2:15 p.m. The Royal Thai Army has just announced that nine Thai civilians have been killed as a result of the clashes. Six of the fatalities were in Sisaket province, two in Surin province and one in Ubon Ratchathani province. The deadliest incident was in Sisaket province when a gas station exploded, causing six deaths and 10 injuries.
A further 14 civilians have been injured, the army says in a statement.
2:00 p.m. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet says that he wrote a letter to the United Nation's Security Council president, seeking an urgent meeting over the clash "to stop Thailand's aggression."
In the letter to Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, permanent representative of Pakistan and Security Council president for July, Hun Manet directs frustration toward Thailand, citing the clash this morning, as well as Thailand's attempts to characterize landmine explosions as new acts of aggressions by Cambodia.
"This military escalation takes place in spite of regional and international appeals for restraint and peaceful solutions and Cambodia's demonstrated commitment to dialogue," he wrote, noting that Cambodia had sent the case to the International Court of Justice since June 6 and then hosted a bilateral dialogue in Phnom Penh on June 14 and 15.
Meanwhile, Cambodia's Foreign Affairs Ministry condemns the attack, which it calls an "unprovoked premeditated and deliberate attacks on Cambodian positions along the border areas." The ministry characterized the clash as a "reckless and hostile act by Thailand," the ministry says.
1:50 p.m. Here's a brief background on why the Thai-Cambodia border is contested.
The two neighbors have a long history of border disputes, which center on a disagreement over the Preah Vihear temple, to which Thailand lays claim, and the surrounding area.
The issue routinely stirs up nationalistic sentiments in both countries. The controversy stems from a 1907 border treaty between France and Siam -- present-day Thailand -- that placed the Preah Vihear temple in Cambodian territory. The French used a watershed between the two countries to draw the border.
However, Thailand contested French maps in the 1930s and occupied the temple complex in 1954. In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple complex belonged to Cambodia but did not rule on other contested land.
From 2008 to 2011, the two countries routinely engaged in cross-border firings near the Preah Vihear temple complex, resulting in large military deployments from both sides in 2011.
The issue once again reached the ICJ, which reaffirmed its 1962 ruling in 2013. In addition, back in 2003, a popular Thai actress said in a Thai TV interview that she hated Cambodia for stealing her Angkor Wat, according to the Cambodia Daily newspaper. Some Cambodians were angered by this, and rioters set fire to the Thai Embassy in Phnom Penh.
For more information, read our previous explainer, published last month.
1:45 p.m. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet had a lengthy military career. He joined the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) in 1995 and four years later became the first Cambodian to graduate from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.
He rose steadily through the ranks, becoming a major general in 2011 and deputy commander in chief of the RCAF in 2019. His postings included leading the counterterrorism team and deputy chief of the prime minister's bodyguard unit. He was promoted to the highest rank, four-star general, in 2023, shortly before he replaced his father Hun Sen as prime minister.
1:15 p.m. Thailand's foreign ministry issues a statement, urging Cambodia to "cease its repeated acts which constitute a severe violation of international law."
Thailand "is prepared to intensify our self-defense measures if Cambodia persists in its armed attack and violations upon Thailand's sovereignty in accordance with international law and principles," the ministry says.
12:30 p.m. Rear Admiral Surasant Kongsiri, spokesperson of Thailand's ad hoc center for the border situation, tells reporters in a press briefing that there have been three serious injuries, including a five-year-old boy, and one death has been reported in the Phanom Dong Rak border community in Surin province.
The ad hoc center has elevated the security measures from Level 2 to Level 4, which involves the complete closure of all border checkpoints along the Thai Cambodian border, Surasant says.
"The Cambodian side has deployed heavy weapons such as BM-21 multiple rocket launchers and 122 millimeter artillery, causing damage to Thai civilian homes and public facilities along the border," he says.
12:30 p.m. Cambodia's defense ministry said in a statement that it "strongly condemns the reckless and brutal military aggression" of Thailand, Reuters reports.
11:55 a.m. Tataya Sattapanon, deputy mayor of the border district of Tambon Ta Muen in Thailand, tells Nikkei on the phone that she is currently in a bunker near her home, together with her neighbors. "I cannot go to the prepared evacuation center because artillery fire from Cambodia is still coming," she says.
She says she learned from social media that one hit near the Phnom Dongrak Hospital and another hit a 7-Eleven store. "We are still hearing sounds of artillery explosions."
11:30 a.m. Thailand's deputy defense minister, Gen. Nattapol Nakphanit, pledges that the Thai army will protect Thailand's sovereignty. "Thai people throughout the country, please be assured that the Thai army will protect our sovereignty and will not allow anyone to encroach on our territory," he says at Government House.
"We will not endure anymore because this is the action of the Cambodian military that we cannot accept. We ask the people to give encouragement to the personnel who are on duty along the border, especially in the area of the 2nd Army."
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NHK
9 minutes ago
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Ceasefire goes into effect between Thailand and Cambodia
A ceasefire agreed between Thailand and Cambodia has come into effect, bringing clashes that continued for days along their disputed border to a halt. The fighting between Thai and Cambodian forces erupted on Thursday. More than 30 people, including civilians, were reportedly killed, while 300,000 people were forced to evacuate. On Monday, Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet held peace talks mediated by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. His country serves as this year's ASEAN chair. Anwar on the same day announced that the two countries agreed on an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire." The truce went into effect at midnight on Tuesday, local time. Since then, no clashes have been reported in the border areas. US President Donald Trump strongly pushed the Thai and Cambodian leaders for a ceasefire by bringing up tariff negotiations. The deal was signed as representatives from the United States and China took part in the peace talks. Military commanders from the two sides are holding informal talks on Tuesday, and officials from the two governments are due to meet to discuss borders. The focus now is on whether the two countries can ease tensions, as both sides have maintained their stance of not making concessions on territorial rights in border areas.


The Diplomat
4 hours ago
- The Diplomat
The Roots of the Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict
On the morning of July 24, in circumstances that remain the subject of dispute, fighting erupted between Thai and Cambodian soldiers close to Ta Moan Thom, an eleventh-century Khmer-Hindu temple perched on the border between the two countries. Within hours, the fighting had spread to other parts of the border, where both armies deployed heavy weaponry, including multiple-launch rocket systems, artillery, and tanks. Cambodia fired batteries of Russia-made BM-21 rockets and artillery shells into Thailand while the Thai air force scrambled F-16 jets to bomb Cambodian military targets. As of press time, the conflict had killed more than 30 people, including 13 civilians in Thailand and eight in Cambodia, and more than 200,000 people had been evacuated from border areas. The outbreak of the conflict, which followed months of growing tensions over the nations' land and maritime boundaries, has confused many international observers. This hasn't been helped by the fact that both nations have adopted the position of victim, accusing the other of a campaign of premeditated aggression. Thailand claims that Cambodian soldiers fired the first shots at Ta Moan Thom, while Cambodia's government asserts that its troops retaliated after an 'unprovoked incursion' by Thai forces and 'acted strictly within the bounds of self-defense.' Both claim that the other has targeted civilian populations and violated international law. The two governments' views have been dishearteningly echoed by many media outlets in both countries, as well as (less surprisingly) by Thai and Cambodian netizens, who have deployed to defend their nations' honor and innocence on the battlefields of social media. As some observers have noted, the conflict involves much more than the few square kilometers of rugged terrain that are in dispute. Indeed, it is hard to understand why the conflict has broken out, and its timing, without understanding the weight of nationalist sentiments that lie behind it, as well as the ways that these have been exploited and instrumentalized by politicians on both sides of the border. Colonial Origins Like so much else, the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict is a vestige of Western colonialism – in particular, of a treaty signed between Siam and French Indo-China in 1904, which set the land border between the two polities. This treaty, which was modified by a subsequent treaty in 1907, charged a Mixed Delimitation Commission, made up of French and Siamese officials, with 'setting the new boundaries' within four months of the treaty's ratification. But the Commission would never finish its work, leaving considerable stretches of the border undemarcated. Meanwhile, the French produced their own maps that appeared to deviate from the text of the 1904 and 1907 treaties in certain respects, creating issues that have been a subject of contention ever since. Most recently, between 2008 and 2011, Thailand and Cambodia clashed over Preah Vihear temple, another Angkorian temple ruin perched on the top of the Dangrek escarpment, which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) had awarded to Cambodia in 1962. By the time it came to a halt, the sporadic border conflict had killed at least 16 people and displaced around 36,000. There are technical issues that make the Cambodia-Thailand border issue challenging, including significant divergences in the cartographic methods used in the maps that each side insists should be used as the basis for negotiations. (Cambodia prefers the old French maps, Thailand its own, more detailed charts.) But any rational attempt to resolve the crisis, such as by drawing up new maps suitable to both sides, has been complicated by the extent of the nationalist fears and passions that are attached to both nations' borders. For many Cambodians and Thais, the prospect of territorial loss, however insignificant, is closely connected to deep-seated feelings of national loss and humiliation. Writing of Cambodia in 1991, Anthony Barnett argued that due to Cambodia's gradual loss of political territory since the heyday of the Angkorian Empire, a 'fear of extinction' was unusually central to the country's national imaginary. He observed that while such a fear was present in many expressions of nationalism, it was often confined to the extremes of the political spectrum. But 'in the case of Cambodia, it is central,' he wrote. 'There can be few countries where the theme has been accorded such weight both by its inhabitants and by foreigners.' This, too, is a legacy of French colonial rule. As Penny Edwards details in her book 'Cambodge: Cultivation of a Nation, 1860-1945,' it was during the French protectorate that a small group of 'French and Cambodian literati' helped shape an emergent Cambodian 'national' culture. This took the legacy of the Angkorian Empire, and the image of the magnificent temple of Angkor Wat, as its touchstone. The French encouraged Cambodians to identify themselves as the inheritors of Angkor, but also described them as a 'vanished race' whose straightened existence offered a living reminder of the potential of national erasure. This embedded a paradox at the heart of the Cambodian nationalist discourse that would take shape by the 1930s. 'Idealized in national anthems, flags, and ceremony,' Edwards wrote, the image of Angkor Wat 'came to stand as political shorthand for two enduring nationalist tropes, symbolizing faith in Cambodia's past glory and fears of that country's future disappearance.' Historically, most of this anxiety has focused on Vietnam, which, from the eighteenth century onward, had slowly absorbed the territories of Kampuchea Krom ('lower Cambodia'), in what is now southern Vietnam. But perceived Thai transgressions have also been combustive, in spite (or perhaps because of) the greater cultural affinities between the two nations. In 2003, Khmer-language press reports claimed that a Thai actress said that Cambodia had 'stolen' Angkor Wat, and that she would not visit the country until it was 'returned' to Thailand. In response, mobs of protesters sacked the Thai Embassy and numerous Thai businesses, causing millions of dollars in damage. The riots may have been inflamed by the country's leader, Hun Sen, for his own political purposes – the riots took place six months before a national election – but he was dealing with politically flammable materials. While the current conflict cannot easily be reduced to a 'dispute over temples,' the presence of Angkorian ruins along the border with Thailand undoubtedly heightens the emotional and political stakes for many Cambodians. Thai nationalism contains a parallel anxiety about the integrity of the nation's borders. While Thais routinely express pride in the fact that they were the only Southeast Asian nation not to be colonized by the West, the Kingdom of Siam nonetheless experienced 'continuous, sometimes violent confrontations with Western powers,' according to the historian Shane Strate. In his 2015 book 'The Lost Territories: Thailand's History of National Humiliation,' Strate argued that Thai pride in having avoided colonization by the West co-mingles with a second, more baleful theme: one that 'identifies the costs and consequences of survival, often portraying Siam as victim rather than victor.' In Strate's telling, this political narrative identifies and fixates on a series of 'lost territories': tracts of land that 'once belonged to the Thai state but that were taken away by hostile powers through deceit or aggression.' These include the territories of what is today Laos, which were ceded to France at the point of a naval gun in 1893, the western Cambodian provinces of Battambang, Sisophon, and Siem Reap (including Angkor Wat), which were ceded to France in the border treaty of 1907, and the Malay provinces of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis, which Siam signed over to Great Britain in 1909. This narrative of national humiliation helps to explain why Thai nationalists are so apparently unnerved by the actions of their objectively much weaker neighbor: behind Cambodia's contemporary territorial claims lie memories of humiliating capitulations to Western powers. In both nations, these resonant narratives have played an important role in politics, where they have been used both to assert and to challenge governments' legitimacy – and to provide a distraction from more material concerns. For decades, opponents of the hegemonic Cambodian People's Party (CPP), which was installed in power by the Vietnamese army after it removed the Khmer Rouge regime in 1979, have accused it of being a 'puppet' of Vietnam and a collaborator in Hanoi's supposedly never-ending quest to absorb Cambodian territory. For this reason, the CPP has historically shied away from anti-Vietnamese rhetoric, but as the anti-Thai riots of 2003 showed, whipping up sentiment against Thailand has offered a 'safer' means of buttressing the government's patriotic credentials. Similarly, in Thai politics, as Strate writes, 'an effective way to discredit political opponents is to associate them with territorial loss.' In 2008, Thai conservatives and royalist 'yellow shirt' activists successfully ginned up a conflict over the Preah Vihear temple, after Cambodia requested that UNESCO list it as a World Heritage Site. They did so at least in part to bring down a government aligned with their nemesis, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The current conflict bears many features of this earlier clash. Overlapping Anxieties Last year, Phnom Penh and Bangkok announced plans to resume negotiations over an Overlapping Claims Area (OCA) in the Gulf of Thailand, an area rich in oil and gas deposits. The chances of resolving this protracted dispute – the 27,000 square kilometer area had been contested since the 1970s – seemed favorable. Thailand was led by the Pheu Thai, a party associated with Thaksin Shinawatra, who had recently returned from Cambodia after more than 15 years in self-exile. In August, Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn, then 37, was appointed prime minister after her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was removed from office for an ethics breach. Cambodia was led by Hun Manet, the eldest son of Hun Sen, who had ruled Cambodia for 38 years before transferring power to his son a year earlier. The Hun and Shinawatra families had been friendly since Thaksin's time as prime minister in the early 2000s – Hun Sen had reportedly described Thaksin as his 'god-brother' and appointed him an economic advisor during the Preah Vihear dispute – boding well for the resolution of the maritime dispute. As one observer had noted a few months earlier, 'the time may be ripe for finally unlocking natural resources in the Gulf of Thailand.' Instead, much the opposite was the case. After the announcement, the Thai government came under immediate fire from royalist conservatives, who remained hostile to Thaksin despite the political compromise that allowed him to return to Thailand in August 2023. This had seen his Pheu Thai party form a government with a number of conservative and military-backed parties, in order to block Move Forward, a more progressive (and therefore threatening) party, from forming a government in the wake of the general election that had taken place in May. These critics, who included both conservative political parties and 'yellow shirt' ultra-royalists, claimed (incorrectly) that a resolution of the OCA could force Thailand to give up its claim to Koh Kut, an island in the Gulf of Thailand, which Cambodian nationalists continued to claim on the basis of the 1907 treaty. In particular, they fixated on Thaksin's friendship with Hun Sen, suggesting that the former Thai PM might sell out Thai interests in a mutually beneficial backroom deal with the Cambodian strongman. This naturally prompted reactions from Cambodian patriots, including exiled opposition figures, who reasserted their own dormant claim to Koh Kut and pressured Hun Manet's government to defend the claim. Both governments hardened their stance. The talks on the OCA stalled. At a certain point, the tensions then migrated to the Thailand-Cambodia land border. In February of this year, as Thai and Cambodian nationalists traded barbs over Koh Kut, a video of Cambodian troops and family members singing a patriotic song in front of Ta Moan Thom temple was posted on social media. The song reportedly included the lyrics, 'all Khmer people are happy to sacrifice their lives when the nation is at war and shedding blood.' The incident prompted Thailand to send a formal protest to the Cambodian government, and Defense Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, referring to the earlier clashes over Preah Vihear temple, and expressing worries 'that history will repeat itself.' The incident led both sides to begin reinforcing infrastructure along disputed stretches of the border. According to satellite analysis conducted last week by Nathan Ruser of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), these preparations intensified after May 28, when Thai and Cambodian soldiers engaged in a brief exchange of gunfire at Chong Bok, an undemarcated area close to the triborder junction with Laos, a clash that left one Cambodian soldier dead. The following day, Ruser noted, Cambodian forces 'began a significant movement of elite troops and strategic assets towards the Cambodian border,' including artillery. Thailand responded in kind. In the first week of June, Hun Manet announced plans to bring the issue to the ICJ, requesting that it rule on the Chong Bok area as well as the areas adjacent to the Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Toch, and Ta Krabei temples. Phnom Penh's unilateral decision to approach the ICJ, a body whose jurisdiction Thailand does not recognize, and whose past rulings on Preah Vihear temple it does not accept, did little to calm the situation. Bangkok viewed the proposal as a violation of an understanding that border issues should be resolved bilaterally, via the Joint Border Commission (JBC) that had been established for this purpose in 2000. A meeting of the JBC on June 14 did little to calm tensions. Then, on June 18, Hun Sen dropped a bombshell, leaking a recording of a phone call that he had had with Paetongtarn three days earlier. The release of the call was politically damaging to the young Thai leader. In the recording, she can be heard pressing Hun Sen, whom she refers to deferentially as 'uncle,' for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and vowing to 'take care of whatever' he needed. Most explosively, she effectively accused Lt. Gen. Boonsin Padklang, the commander of Thailand's Second Army Region, of inciting anti-government sentiment on the border issue and of being 'completely aligned with the other side' (i.e., her domestic political opponents). The leak, which Hun Sen followed with 'revelations' that Thaksin had criticized the monarchy, violating Thailand's harsh lese-majeste law, was clearly intended to bring down his daughter's government. Sure enough, a major conservative party promptly withdrew from her coalition, while conservatives and liberals alike demanded her resignation. On July 1, Paetongtarn was suspended from office by the Constitutional Court pending an investigation of her conduct during the call. Under fire from the nationalist fringe, the Pheu Thai government toughened its stance on the border, tightening border crossings and announcing its intention of combating online scam operations that continue to flourish inside the Cambodian border. In mid-July, Thai police issued an arrest warrant for Kok An, a prominent Cambodian tycoon and CPP senator, accusing him of money laundering and involvement in a transnational criminal organization, and raided numerous Thai properties linked to his family. Hun Sen's breach of regional diplomatic protocol also destroyed the relationship with the Shinawatras, both intensifying the crisis and complicating its resolution. As the Cambodian and Thai armies traded fire along the border last week, the two leaders exchanged rhetorical salvoes on social media. In a post on X, Thaksin claimed that Hun Sen had ordered the attack on Thai territory 'after laying explosive traps along the border,' a reference to two landmine blasts that injured Thai soldiers on July 16 and July 23. The Cambodian politician shot back, accusing Thaksin of initiating the war 'under the pretext of taking revenge on Hun Sen.' Thaksin later said that many countries are 'offering help to mediate' in the Thai-Cambodian border clashes, but said that 'we need to let the Thai army teach that wily Hun Sen a lesson.' Getting Inside Hun Sen's Head While the political dynamics in Thailand are familiar – royalist conservatives and army men weaponizing the 'lost territories' narrative to attack a government associated with Thaksin – those on the Cambodian side are more opaque. Complicating the puzzle further is the fact that while appealing to international law and calling for the intercession of the ICJ and the U.N. Security Council, Phnom Penh has arguably played a disproportionate role in escalating the conflict. In his satellite analysis for ASPI, the closest thing we have to an objective accounting of the lead-up to the outbreak of the conflict, Ruser noted '33 escalatory events instigated by Cambodia, 14 escalatory events instigated by Thailand, and 9 joint de-escalatory events.' It is unclear if this includes Hun Sen's inflammatory leak of his phone call with Paetongtarn. A number of plausible theories for Hun Sen's behavior, including the leak, have been floated. One is that Hun Sen wished to bring down the Pheu Thai government in order either to scuttle its casino legalization bill, which threatened to reduce the profits of Cambodia's own gaming sector, and/or to forestall its crackdown on Cambodia-based cybercrime operations upon which his government's patronage networks allegedly rely. (Thailand's decision to go after Kok An, an important ally of Hun Sen, may well have been a red line.) Another theory holds that Hun Sen fomented the crisis in order to burnish his son's nationalist credentials, although this has been undermined somewhat by the fact that it is Hun Sen, rather than Hun Manet, who has been depicted as leading the country through the crisis. The one clear thing is the unanimity of public sentiment that the conflict has created within Cambodia. The government's position – that Cambodia is a victim of premeditated Thai aggression – has reflexively been adopted by most of Cambodian public opinion, from social media users to journalists, civil society leaders, and exiled opposition figures living in exile. At the very least, anyone opposing the current course of events is loath to say so publicly. This may point to the real reason why Cambodia's leaders have encouraged the conflict. Since a contested election in 2013 in which opposition forces came close to victory, the CPP government, backed increasingly by China, has eliminated most sources of opposition and reverted to ruling more openly by force. In this context, stoking nationalism may be a good way of rallying the nation around the flag and compensating for the government's dearth of democratic legitimacy. It may also serve to distract attention from more pressing concerns, including the stagnating economy, which is threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war, and the crime and reputational impacts stemming from Chinese-run scam operations. Robust Chinese support has also arguably made the Cambodian government more confident in asserting its interests vis-à-vis its two larger neighbors. This is even the case with Vietnam, as the recent frictions over Cambodia's planned Funan Techo Canal have shown. However, as in 2003 and 2008, Thailand remains a safer and more manipulable target of nationalist brinkmanship. How far things will go remains unclear – but if elements in both Thailand and Cambodia have had a political interest in pushing the dispute to the point of conflict, neither government has much interest in a full-scale war. Cambodia would likely lose any such conflict badly, which, in addition to its large human costs, would potentially threaten the CPP's hold on power. For Thailand, victory would be double-edged. A war in which Thailand's military beats up on its much weaker neighbor, after refusing to open the dispute to adjudication by the ICJ, would embitter its relations with its major Western partners and compound the already serious problems facing the Thai economy. All this suggests that the two nations will sooner or later find a face-saving way to pull back from the precipice. The fact that Hun Manet and Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai have agreed to meet in Malaysia for talks this week suggests that a ceasefire may be in the offing. But a comprehensive solution, which would require both nations to make concessions on issues that touch on keen nationalist sensitivities, would require more political capital than either government currently possesses. If the history of the past century is any indication, the border issue will then return to a state of dormancy. Like a landmine in the underbrush, it will remain concealed, awaiting the next incautious political footfall.

Nikkei Asia
8 hours ago
- Nikkei Asia
Thailand, Cambodia agree to unconditional ceasefire
From left, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai shake hands after announcing a ceasefire in the five days of cross-border fighting between Cambodia and Thailand that has killed 34 people. (Photo by Pool/Reuters) NORMAN GOH, ANANTH BALIGA and APORNRATH PHOONPHONGHIPHAT KUALA LUMPUR/PHNOM PENH/BANGKOK -- Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire in their five-day cross-border conflict over disputed ownership of temples and other territory that has killed at least 34 people and displaced more than 270,000. After more than two hours of talks in Malaysia, hosted by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai announced hostilities would end at midnight on Monday.