Tilly's (TLYS) Reports Q1 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates
Tilly's (TLYS) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.74 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.66. This compares to loss of $0.48 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -12.12%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this clothing and accessories retailer would post a loss of $0.28 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.45, delivering a surprise of -60.71%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Tilly's , which belongs to the Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, posted revenues of $107.61 million for the quarter ended April 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.54%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $115.86 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.
The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
Tilly's shares have lost about 68.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 1.5%.
While Tilly's has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?
There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.
Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.
Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Tilly's: mixed. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is -$0.06 on $147.22 million in revenues for the coming quarter and -$1.24 on $549.87 million in revenues for the current fiscal year.
Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Retail - Apparel and Shoes is currently in the bottom 35% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
One other stock from the same industry, XCel Brands (XELB), is yet to report results for the quarter ended March 2025.
This brand management company is expected to post quarterly loss of $1.12 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -24.4%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 216.7% lower over the last 30 days to the current level.
XCel Brands' revenues are expected to be $1.33 million, down 39% from the year-ago quarter.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Xcel Brands, Inc (XELB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
Zacks Investment Research
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Insider
19 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Morgan Stanley shares a chart that fuels the argument for new stock-market highs
Morgan Stanley is growing more optimistic about the stock market as earnings revisions breadth improves. Improving breadth is being driven by more upward revisions, the bank said. The market is likely to overlook softer hard data in favor of forward-looking views of strong earnings. The vibes in the stock market are improving, and it's boosting the case for prices to rise from here. That's according to a note from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. The bank's CIO and chief stock strategist pointed to a key signal that's sending a bullish signal: a sharp rebound in earnings revisions breadth, or the proportion of analysts who have raised their estimates minus the proportion who have lowered them. The indicator is now at -10%, a noticeable improvement from -25% during the height of tariff uncertainty in April, an indication that sentiment is recovering. The bank believes the indicator will continue to trend upward. A weak dollar could further bolster this earnings gauge, as US companies that do a lot of business overseas receive a boost in sales when the dollar is weaker. Once earnings revisions breadth turns positive, investors should expect forward EPS predictions to trend higher. Earnings revision breadth can be driven by either fewer downward revisions or more upward revisions. According to Morgan Stanley, the latter is the case today, which is good news for investors. More upward revisions tend to result in stronger overall stock market performance, historically leading to a 13% increase in the S&P 500 over a 12-month span. When fewer downward revisions are the driving factor, the S&P 500 has historically returned 8% over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley's 12-month price target for the S&P 500 is 6,500, a potential gain of 8% from current levels. Investors should pay more attention to the improvement in forward-looking earnings revision breadth rather than lagging hard data, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank sees April stock market lows as the end of a year-long trend of downward earnings revisions, and expects the rate of change on earnings revision breadth to be the primary driver of equity prices going forward. "In our experience, when revisions breadth is accelerating in a V-shaped manner from an extreme low, equity markets typically remain supported and pullbacks remain shallow and unsatisfying (like the past 6 weeks)," Wilson wrote. The recent outperformance of cyclical stocks also points to a market more focused on forward-looking earnings revisions than backward-looking hard data. These areas of the market are especially sensitive to economic growth and earnings, and they're picking up momentum and providing a tailwind to the overall stock market. While it's possible that inflation could creep up over the summer as the pull-forward effect of tariffs fades, Morgan Stanley believes the bulk of the tariff pain appears to be already priced in following the April 2 tariff announcements. Policy headwinds should ease soon, as Trump's term began by front-loading disruptive tariff policies and will transition to more pro-growth initiatives like deregulation and tax cuts. Over the last month, the market has has rallied over 20% from April lows despite a first quarter GDP contraction weakening manufacturing data. As long as earnings revisions breadth continues trending upwards, Morgan Stanley believes the stock market will continue to overlook short term weakness in hard data.
Yahoo
29 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The bull case for stocks is growing among Wall Street strategists
Wall Street strategists aren't scared of a summer slowdown for stocks despite some indications of a cooling labor market and slowing economic activity. In the past month, several strategists have defended their S&P 500 year-end targets in the range of 6,300 to 6,500, noting that the most dire outcomes from tariffs may no longer be on the table. On Monday, the benchmark index was trading around 6,010, about 2% from the record closing high. In a note titled "Don't fight it," Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson pointed out that a "moderate slowdown in growth" was likely already priced in earlier this year when the average S&P 500 stock fell nearly 30%. "In our experience, stocks and equity market internals move well ahead of lagging economic data and earnings results," Wilson said. To be clear, there are certainly signs of softening in economic data. Last week, ADP data showed that the private sector added 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest monthly total in more than two years. Weekly filings for unemployment claims hit their highest level since October 2024. And monthly nonfarm payroll revisions revealed 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than initially thought. But the slowdown in this data has been widely expected. The equity research team at Goldman Sachs analyzed prior "event driven recessions" such as the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 1970s interest rate shock. Goldman's team, led by chief US equity strategist David Kostin, found that so-called soft economic data, which encapsulates data points like consumer surveys, usually hits its cycle bottom before hard economic data, like monthly readings on inflation or job additions, does. That's been playing out over the past month. In May, the Conference Board's future expectations index saw its largest monthly increase since May 2009. But data on Monday showed inflation expectations in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey moved lower in May for the first time this year, perhaps marking that the worst tariff-driven inflation fears might be behind markets too. Read more: How to protect your savings against inflation Kostin's work shows the S&P 500 typically will follow the soft data's return higher, even if hard economic data, like monthly jobs reports, continues to move lower. "S&P 500 returns are currently more correlated with soft data than hard data," wrote Kostin, who projects the S&P 500 will hit 6,500 in the next 12 months. "If the recovery in soft data is sustained, it should support equity returns even as hard data weaken." Citi equity strategist Scott Chronert boosted his S&P 500 target to 6,300 on Monday from a prior forecast of 5,800. Chronert, like other strategists, pointed out that peak tariff uncertainty has likely passed following the pause on duties between the US and China. With that headwind easing, Chronert pointed out that economic growth forecasts are no longer falling either. After tumbling to a recent bottom of 1.35% in early May, consensus is now projecting the US economy to grow at an annualized pace of 1.4% in 2025. Chronert and other strategists agree that the key risk moving forward would be that economic growth data slows more than consensus is now expecting. But barring that outcome, Chronert likes growth stocks such as Big Tech names amid a market environment that features elevated interest rates and high stock valuations. "Our growth preference continues for now as the AI theme regains momentum," Chronert wrote. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Do Billionaires Ken Griffin and Izzy Englander Know Something About Palantir That Wall Street Doesn't?
Griffin's and Englander's hedge funds bought Palantir shares hand over fist in Q1. However, many Wall Street analysts aren't so bullish about the stock -- mainly because of valuation concerns. The two billionaires' options strategies might align them more closely with the consensus Wall Street take on Palantir than meets the eye. 10 stocks we like better than Palantir Technologies › Only one S&P 500 stock has outperformed Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) so far this year. But it's a pretty close contest. NRG Energy's shares have soared around 76% year to date, while Palantir's gain lags by only a few percentage points. Despite Palantir's tremendous momentum, many analysts aren't upbeat about the stock's near-term prospects. But do billionaires Ken Griffin and Izzy Englander know something about Palantir that Wall Street doesn't? At the end of 2024, Griffin's Citadel Advisors owned 441,755 shares of Palantir. In the first quarter of 2025, the hedge fund more than tripled its position in the artificial intelligence (AI) software provider. Englander is arguably even more enthusiastic about Palantir. In the first quarter, his Millennium Management hedge fund more than quadrupled its stake to 1,312,758 shares. Both successful investors also employed options strategies with the stock. Griffin's and Englander's hedge funds held both call and put options for Palantir at the end of the first quarter. While these two billionaires are indisputably buying Palantir Technologies shares hand over fist, the stock doesn't make up a large percentage of their portfolios. That's not surprising, though, considering that Griffin's Citadel Advisors has more than 5,800 holdings, while Englander's Millennium Management has more than 3,900 holdings. Wall Street doesn't seem to share Griffin's and Englander's optimism about Palantir. The consensus 12-month price target for the stock among analysts surveyed by LSEG is roughly 22% below the current share price. Only one of the 25 analysts polled by LSEG in June rated Palantir as a "strong buy." Another three analysts recommended buying the stock. However, seven analysts viewed Palantir as an "underperform" or advised investors to sell. Fifteen analysts recommended holding the stock. Why isn't Wall Street as enthusiastic about Palantir as the two billionaire hedge fund managers seem to be? Probably the biggest objection for analysts is valuation. Palantir's shares trade at nearly 244 times forward earnings. I'd say that was a nosebleed forward multiple, but that might not be a strong enough description. Most analysts don't seem to think Palantir's growth prospects justify this sky-high valuation, either. The software company's price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio based on analysts' five-year earnings growth projections is 4.22. PEG ratios generally need to be below 1.0 for a stock to be considered attractively valued. Maybe Griffin and Englander do know something about Palantir that most analysts on Wall Street don't. Perhaps the billionaire investors expect much stronger growth from the company than analysts forecast. Maybe they agree with Wedbush's Dan Ives, who predicts that Palantir's market cap will more than triple to $1 trillion over the next two to three years. I suspect, though, that the more bearish opinion held by Jefferies analyst Brent Thill is a better take. Thill noted on CNBC's Closing Bell Overtime show a few weeks ago that no tech stock has ever been able to sustain a super-high multiple like Palantir's. Like Thill, I don't question the strength of Palantir's underlying business. The company makes great software. It should have strong growth prospects. Palantir might even enjoy a bonanza if President Donald Trump's Golden Dome missile defense system is funded by Congress and the company wins a lucrative contract to help build it. But this growth still doesn't seem to be enough to justify Palantir's valuation, in my view. I also wonder whether Griffin and Englander are really as bullish about Palantir as their recent buying indicates. We don't know the detailed information about the option trades they've made. It's possible that those options significantly hedge their positions in Palantir. After all, hedging is what hedge funds do. Maybe, just maybe, Griffin and Englander are more closely aligned with the consensus Wall Street view of Palantir than meets the eye. Before you buy stock in Palantir Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Palantir Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $868,615!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Do Billionaires Ken Griffin and Izzy Englander Know Something About Palantir That Wall Street Doesn't? was originally published by The Motley Fool Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
