Stopping Beijing's spies is… complicated

Politico

6 days ago

With help from John Sakellariadis, Robbie Gramer and Daniel Lippman
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The Trump administration's effort to 'aggressively revoke' visas of Chinese students in the U.S. is, in part, borne out of espionage concerns. But it's unclear if the move will be a blow to Chinese intelligence operations or cost America valuable influence with Chinese nationals studying at the nation's colleges and universities.
China does use some of the hundreds of thousands of its citizens studying at American universities to spy on its behalf. Those efforts, which loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember caught the attention of lawmakers earlier this year, are primarily focused on gaining information about sensitive technologies. Beijing's agents also surveil and intimidate Chinese nationals living, working and studying in the United States.
Counterintelligence officials have long grappled with how to curb Chinese espionage efforts at U.S. universities without casting aspersions on innocent academics and students.
The FBI's China Initiative, established during President DONALD TRUMP's first term to protect U.S. science and technology from Chinese espionage, was shuttered after a review during the Biden administration found that it created a 'harmful perception' of racial bias. A number of researchers and academics with Chinese roots have been wrongly accused of espionage.
NICHOLAS EFTIMIADES, an expert on Chinese espionage, questioned the ultimate efficacy of the policy in curtailing economic spying.
'If the goal is taking players off the field, I get it. Makes perfect sense,' he said. 'If the goal is trying to limit access to technology, it's not the most effective way of dealing with this type of situation.' Why? Eftimiades argued that China would likely just send more operatives to British and Australian universities — which possess similar tech expertise and regularly collaborate with U.S. universities.
Some former intelligence officials acknowledged that greater scrutiny of Chinese students' visas is needed.
'We do need to manage the numbers and do a better job at looking at the provenance of some of these students,' said SUSAN MILLER, a six-time CIA station chief who retired from the agency last year. Miller added that she doesn't support a blanket ban on all Chinese students.
But any restrictions, Miller explained, need to be weighed against the discrete, soft power advantage to welcoming students from China. 'A lot of these students come here and they become pro-democracy,' Miller said.
Some evidence exists that Chinese students educated in the United States indeed view democracy more favorably than their counterparts who studied at Chinese universities, though it is unclear how widespread that effect is.
There's also the possibility that Chinese nationals in the U.S. could be ripe targets for the U.S. intel agencies to recruit as assets against Beijing, but their value may be limited, said Eftimiades. 'If you're reduced to that, that's not a great intelligence capability,' he said. 'It's not like you're recruiting someone who is inside the inner ranks of the PLA.'
The State Department is standing firm behind its current approach. Spokesperson TAMMY BRUCE told reporters at a briefing today that 'the Trump administration is focused on protecting our nation and our citizens by upholding our national security and public safety through our visa process.'
The Inbox
LIMITED SUPPLIES IN GAZA: Humanitarian aid is flowing into the Gaza Strip. But already there are worries that the aid being distributed is insufficient to meet the needs of the war-torn enclave.
The Wall Street Journal's Abeer Ayyoub, Suha Ma'ayeh and Anat Peled report that thousands of Palestinians lined up outside two distribution centers in southern Gaza today. And as people heard about food running out, there was disorder and crowding. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, created by Israel to distribute aid within the enclave, says it distributed tens of thousands of boxes in the territory directly to families. But Gazans told the Journal that people are surviving on just one meal a day and not enough people have received food aid.
The continued shortages are stoking fears that Israel's looming military operations in the Gaza Strip and expected seizure of most of the enclave will usher in a full-fledged famine. They've also created discomfort among Israel's European allies, who have openly begun questioning the aims of Israel's war effort in the Gaza Strip at this juncture.
MUSK'S ODNI PIT STOP: Days before relinquishing the reins of DOGE, Trump adviser ELON MUSK had a rendezvous with Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD.
Gabbard uploaded a photo on her X account Wednesday night of a meeting she recently held with the controversial tech tycoon, who announced his exit from DOGE the same night. 'It was great hosting @elonmusk at ODNI to discuss how we can best leverage cutting edge technological tools and public-private partnerships to increase innovation and ensure our nation's security,' Gabbard wrote.
Asked for additional information on the meet-up, a spokesperson for Gabbard said that the meeting actually took place last week. Gabbard also showed Musk ODNI's National Counterterrorism Center operations center, the spokesperson said, and overall the two exchanged ideas on several largely tech-focused topics.
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Keystrokes
STEALTH EDITS: The Trump administration is quietly revising an Obama-era plan for responding to cyberattacks against government agencies, and drawing internal pushback in the process.
As our own John Sakellariadis scooped in today's Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!), the National Security Council's cyber team wants to update Presidential Policy Directive 41, which defines the kinds of breaches that constitute major risks to the country, and how different federal agencies will coordinate their responses to them. Trump officials are arguing that the plan was published before some key cyber agencies existed and at a time when threats from other countries, including China, were less pervasive.
But the FBI is protesting, since it would be removed from its perch as the 'lead agency for threat response activities.' The White House's logic is that CISA, Cyber Command or the Office of the National Cyber Director should also be empowered in cases of cyber breaches.
It's unclear what the tensions with the FBI, which is led by Trump ally KASH PATEL, could mean for the fate of the NSC's efforts. After all, Patel enjoys considerable sway with Trump and support on Capitol Hill, but so too do Secretary of State (and acting national security adviser) MARCO RUBIO and Secretary of Homeland Security KRISTI NOEM, whose agencies are involved in the efforts to update PPD-41.
The Complex
HEGSETH'S SHANGRI-LA DEBUT: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH is off to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore this weekend — and he has a plan to convince Asian leaders that the U.S. is still a more trustworthy partner than China.
Defense officials told Reuters' Idrees Ali that Hegseth plans to exploit the fact that China isn't sending Defense Minister DONG JUN to the defense confab in Singapore to pitch allies in Asia that Washington will be a resolute partner and that there need be no 'uncertainty' about the future of the U.S. in the region. Joining him will be Gabbard and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. DAN CAINE.
But Asian allies were concerned by Trump's moves early in his term to move air defense systems from Asia to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran. Turmoil at the Pentagon and the White House's approach to Europe haven't quieted worries that the administration could be similarly mercurial toward Asia in the future.
On the Hill
BUKELE'S BLUE DOG ALLY: After putting all his eggs in the Trump team basket, Salvadoran President NAYIB BUKELE isn't exactly loved by Democrats these days. But our colleague Ben Jacobs found one House member who still thinks Democrats should work with Bukele.
Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ (D-Texas) is just one of two Democrats in the House El Salvador Caucus these days, and he told Ben that Bukele's efforts to stabilize the country, which was ravaged until very recently by rampant and out-of-control gang violence, should still be lauded. He also encouraged Democrats to build a relationship with the Central American leader.
'I think Democrats … shouldn't shy from building a diplomatic relationship with the country of El Salvador,' Gonzalez said. 'I think we have a lot in common. And I don't think Bukele comes from an extreme right-wing history. I think he's kind of been a middle-of-the-road survivor.'
Democrats have protested alleged human rights abuses associated with Bukele's crackdown on gang violence, which has centered around the mass incarceration of suspected gang members. And the brutal conditions in Salvadoran prisons have come into greater focus as Bukele has accepted undocumented migrants deported from the United States accused, sometimes dubiously, of being members of gangs. Democrats have also rallied around the case of KILMAR ABREGO GARCIA, whose family argues he was wrongfully deported back to El Salvador in contravention of a court order.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — LAWMAKER'S NEW CHINA ROLE: Sen. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) has been tapped to serve on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, or CECC, NatSec Daily has learned.
Kim formerly worked at the State Department and National Security Council before he ran for public office and has become a leading voice in Democratic circles on China policy. He'll join the influential commission that helps shape U.S. strategy on human rights and rule of law issues in China. The commission consists of nine senators, nine House members and five senior administration officials appointed by the president.
Broadsides
NORTH KOREA'S UKRAINE ROLE: An international monitoring group — which the United States is a member of — is warning that cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang in Ukraine is helping the Russian military launch devastating strikes against Ukrainian cities.
Per the report from the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team — whose other members are Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom — North Korea supplied munitions and ammunition that contributed to 'targeted strikes against critical civilian infrastructure.' In return, Russia supported North Korea's ballistic missile programs and provided Pyongyang with air defense equipment, anti-aircraft missiles and electronic warfare systems.
The report is the latest accounting for the blossoming partnership between the two autocracies, especially since Russia blocked the renewal of a U.N. sanctions regime at the Security Council last year. North Korea and Russia made the ties official in April, as North Korea confirmed it deployed troops to Ukraine and signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Russia. But neither country has confirmed explicitly transfers of technology or equipment.
Transitions
— Former U.S. Pacific Command chief Retired Adm. JOHN C. AQUILINO joined Red Cell as an adviser to its national security practice.
— The McCain Institute at Arizona State University has appointed CINDY DYER as its new chief program officer. Dyer was most recently U.S. ambassador-at-large to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons.
— STEVE SZROM is now deputy general counsel for the House Select China Committee. He previously was senior counsel on the committee.
— VEDANT PATEL is now a senior vice president in SKDK's public affairs practice. He previously was principal deputy spokesperson at the State Department.
— MELANIE FONDER KAYE has joined the National League of Cities as senior executive and director of digital engagement, marketing and comms. She previously was deputy assistant to the secretary of Defense for strategic engagement and worked for former first lady JILL BIDEN.
What to Read
— Robbie Gramer, POLITICO: Rubio outlines plans to drastically cut human rights offices in State
— David Pierson, The New York Times: How China Uses Work to Reshape Uyghur Identity and Control a Strategic Region
— Michael Albertus, Americas Quarterly: Hardliners Are Poised to Dominate New Phase of U.S.-Venezuela Relations
— M. Alejandra Parra-Orlandoni, War on The Rocks: Women in the Ranks, but Not in the Clear
Tomorrow Today
— Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: Should Trump Disengage From Peace Efforts in Ukraine?
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who would make terrible recruits for Chinese espionage.