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NATO's ‘Take Five' moment
With help from Joe Gould, Diya Contractor and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric NatSec Daily readers, Robbie here with a special note: After 150 newsletters, today is my last day helming the newsletter as I leave POLITICO for a new adventure. I've loved geeking out over all things natsec with our readers, so this is a bittersweet farewell for me! Fret not, however. Eric will be around as an interim anchor, working with the rest of the global security squad to bring you the freshest news of the day. Without further ado, let's get into it one last time. — Robbie NATO allies nervous about President DONALD TRUMP's commitment to Europe think they've found a magic formula to placate him. The magic number is five. Alliance chief MARK RUTTE has put forward a plan to get allies to spend 5 percent of GDP on their defense — drastically boosting the previous NATO benchmark of allies spending 2 percent on defense. Top Trump administration officials have pushed this spending level aggressively. But the plan also includes some workarounds (cynics might call them accounting tricks) to hit that 5 percent goal. That includes spending 3.5 percent on hard defense — think artillery, fighter jets, guns, etc. — and 1.5 percent on defense-adjacent funding, such as cybersecurity or military mobility infrastructure. One example: Ensure highway bridges are built to withstand tanks rolling across them in case an emergency deployment is needed. Defense spending has long been a sore spot in U.S.-NATO relations. But it's taken on a new urgency with Trump's reelection and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia has transformed into a full-fledged wartime economy. And Europe is racing to rearm as allies on the eastern flank warn that Moscow could encroach on NATO territory if it is successful in Ukraine. The 5 percent target will feature prominently in an upcoming NATO summit of alliance leaders at The Hague later this month. European defense officials privately say they hope the ambitious plan will placate Trump and show him that European allies are serious about taking charge of their defenses — at a time when they worry any public blow-ups with the U.S. president could signal discord within the alliance to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. Current and former U.S. officials are cheering the move by the Trump administration to push for more defense spending. But they also question whether Europe can achieve those ambitions on an accelerated timeline that matters for European security, particularly as Russia shows no signs of letting up in its bombardment of Ukraine. (Twenty-three of NATO's 32 allies are on track to hit 2 percent defense spending by this summer.) 'I like the idea of allies committing to 3.5, but given that around a third of the allies don't even meet 2 percent yet, my question is how long will it take these countries to actually get there?' said JULIANNE SMITH, who served as U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Biden administration. Trump's ambassador to NATO, MATTHEW WHITAKER, addressed these concerns today, as our colleagues Laura Kayali and Jacopo Barigazzi report. 'Let me be clear on this, we cannot have another Wales pledge style where a lot of allies don't meet their commitments until year 10 or year 11,' Whitaker told reporters, referring to the 2014 decision at a NATO summit in Wales to set the 2 percent goal. 'Some allies may try and pull a fast one and put some items on the list that aren't quite defense adjacent, so we're just gonna have to do some very strict monitoring of this,' Smith said of the plan to add the 1.5 percent of spending to the tally. That includes ensuring allies don't retroactively 'count things they're already spending money on,' Smith said. So far, 14 NATO countries have publicly backed the 5 percent target. The United States is currently at 3.4 percent but prominent Republican lawmakers want to significantly boost U.S. defense spending further. The Inbox TRUMP'S HOTLINE BLING: Trump said he had a 'good conversation' with Putin over the phone today, as Cheyanne Daniels and our own Amy Mackinnon and Felicia Schwartz report. But Trump acknowledged that peace between Ukraine and Russia is not on the horizon. Trump claimed Putin vowed to respond to Ukraine's drone attacks over the weekend and that the call was 'not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace.' Iran also came up, and it seems like Putin wants to play peacemaker between Washington and Tehran. Trump wrote on Truth Social that Putin 'suggested that he will participate in the discussion with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion.' IRAN NUCLEAR WOES: Speaking of Iran, Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI today rejected a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal that would see Tehran gradually reduce its enrichment of uranium over time, per The Wall Street Journal's Benoit Faucon, Laurence Norman and Alex Ward. 'To the American side and others we say: Why are you interfering and trying to say whether Iran should have uranium enrichment or not? That's none of your business,' Khamenei said on X. The comments from Khamenei are a major blow to U.S. negotiators hoping Iran would cede enrichment capabilities for its civilian nuclear program. The U.S. has said it will not accept any deal that allows Iran to enrich its own uranium, meaning it may need to shift its expectations in negotiations. TROUBLE BREWS FOR BIBI: A far-right Israeli political party in Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU's coalition is threatening to launch a vote of no confidence that could prompt snap elections in the country. Reuters' Alexander Cornwell reports that the United Torah Judaism Party, an ultra-Orthodox party which holds seven seats in Netanyahu's coalition, is threatening to walk away from the government as Netanyahu mulls whether to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel from mandatory military conscription. The party's departure would put intense pressure on Netanyahu's coalition, which currently only has an eight-seat majority in the country's parliament. That could invite an opposition-led vote to dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections. The move comes at an especially delicate time in Israel, as Israelis across the political spectrum have soured on the country's conduct of the war in the Gaza Strip, as well as the government's failure to bring back the remaining hostages held by Hamas. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. We know it's Wednesday. But with Robbie leaving our team, we wanted to take a moment to raise a glass to him. Robbie said he'll be celebrating his run on your favorite newsletter by drinking happy hour Tecate tallboys (topped with a lime slice, of course) in honor of the warming weather. 'I need to drown my sorrows somehow, and I'll be doing it on a budget,' he said, tossing tissues over his desk toward Eric. Robbie has vowed to continue voraciously reading NatSec Daily after leaving the POLITICO family, and shake his fist in rage when Eric and the all-star natsec team scoop him in future reporting. In lieu of flowers, Eric asks that you send him tips about U.S.-Latin America policy. Cheers, Robbie! We'll miss you. IT'S WEDNESDAY — AND THE END OF THE ROBBIE ERA: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at ebazail@ and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel The Complex FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — THE QUAD GOES INTERSTELLAR? A bipartisan duo of senators is pushing for the Quad alliance to look to the final frontier as a place for greater security cooperation. Sens. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) and KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) are teaming up to introduce the Quad Space Act, which would strengthen space cooperation between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. It also directs the secretary of Defense to cultivate partnerships with allies to promote space situational awareness and space industrial, among other priorities. The bill has decent odds of becoming law. The Trump administration has embraced the Quad alliance since taking office and has taken steps to boost its space policy capabilities. AND FOR ALL YOU SPACE NERDS: We have stellar news to share (no, we're not sorry for that pun.) Our very own Sam Skove is launching a newsletter covering all things space (for Pros!). The inaugural version is out this Friday and you won't want to miss Sam's sharp analysis of astrospace politics — down to the policy, power plays and people moves at the heart of America's new intergalactic ambitions. Don't forget to sign up, and read more about it here. On the Hill YERMAK MEETS WITH LAWMAKERS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY's top aide, ANDRIY YERMAK, met with a bipartisan swath of lawmakers on Capitol Hill this week, offering insight into Russian war crimes and battlefield dynamics. At a closed-door session Wednesday, the presentation included battlefield maps, drone footage of recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases and personal accounts of child abductions, according to lawmakers involved. The Ukrainians also laid out how little ground Russia had seized for the 'tremendous casualties' they had incurred, as well as the 'potential for additional gains' in the war. Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), who with Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM arranged the session, called it 'very powerful' and said there were roughly 25 senators in attendance from both parties. DRUG BUST: The House Intelligence Committee is standing up a new task force focused on stopping the growing threat of transnational criminal gangs, our own John Sakellariadis writes in. The bipartisan Cartel Task Force will work to bolster the intelligence community's ability to stop cartels that funnel narcotics and other illicit material into the U.S., committee leads Reps. RICK CRAWFORD (R-Ark.) and JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) said in a press release today. The move comes just a few months after the intelligence community put transnational organized crime first in its annual compendium of global threats to Americans. 'The United States cannot allow Mexico, our neighbor and largest trading partner, to devolve into a failed narco-state run by violent cartels,' Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Tex.), who is set to helm the task force, said in the press release. Alongside Crenshaw, the five-member panel includes Democratic Reps. JASON CROW of Colorado and CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania and Republican Reps. DARIN LaHOOD of Illinois and BRIAN FITZPATRICK of Pennsylvania. Broadsides HOLY ROLLING ON AI: POPE LEO XIV is looking to position the Vatican as a key voice on the future of AI, at a time when the technology seems poised to disrupt most aspects of society. Per our European colleague Hannah Roberts, the newly minted Bishop of Rome has continually expressed his worries that AI could seriously erode 'human dignity, justice and labor.' The Pope has already been the subject of a litany of deepfake videos, highlighting how the emerging technology could be used to spread falsehoods online. Vatican AI adviser and Franciscan friar PAOLO BENANTI told POLITICO that the Catholic Church's role as 'an expert in humanity' could galvanize leaders, particularly those of Catholic countries, 'to create an AI that cares for man and is aligned with social justice.' Transitions — SOPHIA KIM, a former spokesperson for the New York State Department of Financial Services and the U.S. Small Business Administration, has joined the Council on Foreign Relations as director of media relations and communications strategy. Kim also worked for SKDK. — JEFFREY GOETTMAN, former executive vice president and CEO of the Export-Import Bank, was tapped to serve as deputy U.S. trade representative. His portfolio will include Africa, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, labor, the environment and industrial competitiveness. — Former Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN launched a new advisory firm, Clarion Strategies, alongside Smith, the former U.S. NATO Ambassador and former Pentagon legislative affairs chief RHEANNE WIRKKALA. Also joining are former Veterans Affairs Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH as a principal, with ELY RATNER and LINDSEY FORD advising part-time. — CLARA GILLISPIE has joined the Council on Foreign Relations' David Rockefeller Studies Program as senior fellow for climate and energy. Gillispie most recently served as a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research. What to Read — Lara Jakes, The New York Times: Drone Attacks Are the New Front in War. NATO Is Trying to Catch Up. — Max Stier, The Washington Post: What Marco Rubio's multitude of jobs means for America — Ken Moritsugu and Kanis Leung, Associated Press: A quiet Tiananmen Square anniversary shows China's ability to suppress history Tomorrow Today — Asia Society Policy Institute, 8 a.m.: Political reset? Implications of the South Korea election for the alliance and the region. — Atlantic Council's Europe Center, 9 a.m.: Poland's strategic partnerships in a changing world - new roads and old ties' — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The Posture of the Department of the Army in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: Dominance by design: China shock 2.0 and the supply chain chokepoints eroding U.S. security — Middle East Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Pakistan-U.S. Relations Under the Trump Administration: Challenges and opportunities — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Air Force FY2026 Posture — Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: Backing Ukraine: What's Next for Russian Sanctions? — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 11:30 a.m.: What's Next for Taiwan: Navigating New Diplomatic, Economic, and Security Dynamics — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12:30 p.m.: The Next Era of Israel-Lebanon Relations?: Ceasefire Status and Political Prospects — New America, 2 p.m.: Book discussion on 'The Future of Deception in War: Lessons from Ukraine' — Center for American Progress, 2 p.m.: Discussion on 'America's Role in the World: The Value of Leadership and Alliance' with Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) — House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: After Assad: The Future of Syria — American Enterprise Institute, 2:30 p.m.: Emerging Technologies and Strategic Competition: A Conversation with Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) — Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: 'Global Strike Command's Role in Strategic Deterrence' Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who probably won't miss Robbie one bit.
Politico
30-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Israel feels fallout of Trump's ceasefire with Houthis
With help from Maggie Miller, Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric President DONALD TRUMP's ceasefire with the Houthi militant group in Yemen appears to be holding. But that hasn't stopped the Houthis from continually lobbing missiles at Israel, the United States' most important Middle East ally. The Houthis late Thursday night launched another ballistic missile at Israel — which Israeli air defenses successfully intercepted — marking the Houthis' sixth attempted attack in a week. It came days after Israel carried out its own airstrike against Houthi territory in Yemen. The attacks show how the Houthis are emerging as one of the most resilient Iran-backed militant groups in the region following a prolonged conflict that has seen Israel destroy a large part of Hamas and Hezbollah's military power. But the ongoing Houthi attacks also lay bare how Israel was left out of Trump's ceasefire deal with the Yemeni militants — a fact that could put the staunchly pro-Israel administration under new pressure to respond if the Houthi attacks escalate. 'Israel is not immune to America First foreign policy,' a former Trump administration official who worked on Middle East issues told NatSec Daily. 'And this was an America First negotiation.' Some pro-Israel groups have bridled at the Trump administration's decision to strike a deal with the Houthis that didn't include conditions on halting attacks on Israel. Leaving Israel out 'suggests there's daylight or divergence between the United States and Israel, which is always something Iran seeks to exploit,' said BLAISE MISZTAL of the Jewish Institute for National Security, a nonprofit advocacy group. But administration insiders, including the former official and one current official who we granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal deliberations, defended the Trump administration's decision. They argued that the Houthis would never halt attacks on Israel and that the administration simply took the least bad option it had available: Stop expending significant military resources and high-end munitions on a fight that had no end in sight. And, these people argued to us, the administration will use its resources better by focusing on tackling the root causes of the Houthi attacks. That includes a final ceasefire in Gaza and a deal with Iran, the Houthis' prime military backers, over its nuclear program. The Houthis have justified their attacks against Israel as a response to Israel's ongoing military offensive in Gaza. The militant group halted its missile attacks briefly during an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in January, then launched them again in March when Israel resumed its Gaza operations. 'The Houthis will continue these attacks to establish their jihadi street cred and axis of resistance street cred against Israel,' said the former Trump administration official. 'Everyone has tried to take on the Houthis militarily for a decade. And everyone has failed.' Spokespeople for the National Security Council and Israeli embassy in Washington didn't respond to NatSec Daily's request for comment. Still, the ongoing attacks may only serve to embolden the Houthis and bring them new resources, recruits and military prestige if left unchecked, other analysts warned. 'From a Houthi perspective, they're demonstrating not only 'You can go toe to toe with the United States and emerge,' but 'You can continue taking potshots at the most powerful military force in the Middle East and still be standing,'' said JON ALTERMAN of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. That, he argued, 'gives them tremendous credibility.' The Inbox HARVARD'S NEW VISA VETTING: The State Department unveiled new guidance for vetting visa applications of students, faculty members, staff and visiting speakers at Harvard University for online expressions of antisemitism, our own Nahal Toosi and Eric scooped. Per the cable issued Thursday and signed by Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO, consular officers should 'conduct a complete screening of the online presence of any nonimmigrant visa applicant seeking to travel to Harvard University for any purpose.' This goes beyond existing protocols, which primarily involved screening returning students who may have participated in pro-Gaza campus protests. And having no social media, or having accounts set to private, may cause applications to be rejected, as the cable tells consular officers to weigh those factors when evaluating an applicant's credibility. The policy is being described as a 'pilot' that could be expanded to visa applicants associated with other colleges and universities. NATO EXPANSION CONSENSUS? Russia is celebrating the Trump administration's public agreement that Ukraine shouldn't join NATO any time soon. U.S. special envoy to Ukraine KEITH KELLOGG said Thursday that Russia's worries about NATO's eastern expansion are 'a fair concern' and that 'Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table.' It's the first public statement that Ukraine's NATO membership is truly a nonstarter amid negotiations to end Russia's invasion. The Kremlin embraced those comments today, per our European colleague Yurii Stasiuk. 'We are glad that these explanations of the president find their understanding, including in Washington,' Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said. That consensus indicates that the U.S. and Russia could write into any deal to end the war in Ukraine that Kyiv won't be admitted formally into the alliance. MACRON'S WARNINGS: French President EMMANUEL MACRON offered a warning to China at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore today: The future of NATO in Asia rests on China's ability to keep North Korea out of the war in Ukraine. Per our European colleague Laura Kayali, Macron said that 'North Korea in Ukraine is a big question for all of us. If China doesn't want NATO to be involved in Southeast Asia, it should prevent [North Korea] from being engaged on European soil.' It's a remarkable about-face for the French leader, who helped block previous efforts by NATO to expand its presence in Asia by creating a liaison office in Japan. 'I had objected to NATO having a role in Asia because I don't believe in being enrolled in someone else's strategic rivalry,' Macron said, hinting that Paris could change its stance. The comments highlight Europe's deep vexation with the growing Russia-North Korea partnership in Ukraine, which has seen Pyongyang offer Russia troops and ammunition for its three-year invasion of Ukraine in exchange for cutting edge defense technology. China, which has traditionally served as the main power with influence over the mercurial government in Pyongyang, has chafed at the growing ties between its two allies, but has done little to rein in North Korea. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring KURT VOLKER, who served as Trump's envoy for Ukraine in his first administration and U.S. ambassador to NATO during the GEORGE W. BUSH administration. As a longtime Europe policy hand, it's perhaps no surprise that Volker's drink of choice involves European grapes: Tsolikouri, a dry white wine from the western region of Georgia in the South Caucasus. Volker said he first tried Georgian wine in 2005, when he was a member of then-President Bush's delegation visiting the country. 'It was wonderful. I've had Georgian wine from that time,' he said. (The rest of the trip after that, though, not so much: A Georgian man attempted to assassinate Bush later in the trip by throwing a grenade at him during a speech, but fortunately the grenade failed to detonate.) Another factor that may explain Volker's fondness for these dry white wines: Volker's wife, former Voice of America journalist IA MEURMISHVILI, has a vineyard in Georgia that produces wines including Tsolikouris. Maybe NatSec Daily should look at buying a vineyard to really upgrade the Drinks with NatSec Daily experience… But until then, cheers to you, Kurt! IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes BRING IT BACK: A group of Senate Democrats is urging Homeland Security Secretary KRISTI NOEM to reinstate a key federal advisory board tasked with investigating major cyber incidents, with the senators citing national security concerns, our own Maggie Miller writes in. Members of the Cyber Safety Review Board were dismissed during the first week of the Trump administration as part of an overhaul of DHS federal advisory boards, right as the CSRB was beginning to investigate the hack of U.S. telecommunications last year by Chinese government hacking group Salt Typhoon. Senate Intelligence Committee Vice Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.), along with Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) sent a letter to Noem today outlining their concerns with closing the CSRB, in particular the interruption of the Salt Typhoon investigation. 'The January dismissal of CSRB members, and continued uncertainty about the future role of the board, has undermined cyber defense preparations for public and private entities across the United States,' the senators wrote. A spokesperson for DHS did not immediately respond to NatSec Daily's request for comment. The Complex WAITING ON HEGSETH: Friday was a busy day for Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH, as he worked through his first Shangri-La Dialogue meeting in Singapore, our own Paul McLeary and Joe Gould write in. His meetings with allies presaged his highly anticipated Saturday keynote speech at the cornerstone annual event for nations to talk though security issues in the Indo-Pacific region. Hegseth's remarks are expected to be a major statement on the Trump administration's still undefined security policy in the region. 'This is a really important speech, and the main reason for that is we don't know nearly as much as we would like to about where the Trump administration lies on Asia policy,' said MIRA RAPP-HOOPER, who was one of former President JOE BIDEN's top Asia advisers on East Asia and Oceania. 'There is uncertainty about how the United States is defining its own security role,' said Rapp-Hooper. 'So they don't really know how to gauge how strong the U.S. commitment is to them right now.' There's also concern that Hegseth will push Asian nations to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, which is emerging as the new spending goal for European NATO members. Pentagon policy chief ELBRIDGE COLBY posted on X recently that 5 percent 'is the new standard for our allies around the world, especially Asia.' Rapp-Hooper said any such ask 'will not land particularly well,' with allies in Asia, particularly South Korea, Japan and Australia — which are currently increasing spending and ramping up their military readiness. Other countries in the region simply can't afford to spend that much on defense, she said. The Trump administration's new isolationist-meaning doctrine, spelled out by Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia this month, and Vice President JD VANCE at the Naval Academy earlier this month, also might not entice allies to spend more just because Washington says so. 'When you threaten to pull back, it doesn't necessarily drive allies to spend more,' said ZACK COOPER, a former Pentagon official now with the American Enterprise Institute. 'It can empower the people in those capitals who are most skeptical of the U.S., who also happen to be skeptical of defense spending.' On the Hill MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS: Democratic lawmakers are demanding answers from a senior Trump administration Africa envoy over his efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict between Rwanda and the Congo and the role that U.S. investments in Congo's critical minerals is playing in any negotiations. Five Democratic lawmakers sent a letter to MASSAD BOULOS, the State Department's senior adviser on African affairs (who is also TIFFANY TRUMP's father-in-law). They said they had questions over expanded U.S. access to the Congo's critical mineral resources and 'how these resources will be managed transparently and equitably.' They also warned that the administration's cuts to humanitarian and health aid to the Congo will exacerbate the drivers of the ongoing conflict, including weak governance, corruption and lack of economic opportunity. The letter was signed by Reps. JOHNNY OLSZEWSKI (D-Md.), SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), SHEILA CHERFILUS-McCORMICK (D-Fl.), JONATHAN JACKSON (D-Ill.) and PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.). The State Department declined to comment, saying it doesn't comment on correspondence with Congress. Broadsides INDIA ISN'T BACKING DOWN: India is reminding Pakistan that it has only paused military operations against it. Per Indian outlet Mint, Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI said at a rally today that 'Operation Sindoor is not over yet.' He continued: 'It showed the world power of indigenous weapons and 'Make in India.' We destroyed terrorist hideouts in Pakistan by going hundreds of miles inside. Indian weapons, Brahmos missiles, entered enemy territory and wreaked havoc.' Modi reiterated that India won't be cowed by threats from Pakistan about the use of nuclear weapons, echoing what's become a new strategic doctrine in Delhi as to relations with Islamabad. The comments come as India and Pakistan have reduced their troop buildup near their shared border. Pakistan has also signaled that the conflagration between both countries in late April and early May has increased the likelihood of further conflict and escalation. Transitions — Rubio announced today that former Ambassador to Jordan HENRY WOOSTER will become the chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Haiti as of June 12. DENNIS HANKINS, the outgoing U.S. ambassador, is retiring. Wooster is an Army veteran who previously worked at the U.S. embassy in Port-au-Prince and will bring a 'whole-of-government approach to U.S. policy on Haiti,' per Rubio. — JORDAN BREWER is leaving the Cato Institute after serving as a manager of government affairs. He will join the State Department as special adviser in the bureau of cyberspace and digital policy. — Retired Col. ERIC LECKEL has joined the National Guard Association of the United States as its chief of staff. He previously served on the NGAUS board of directors and was president of the Wisconsin National Guard Association. — Cambridge Global Advisors has added PATRICK LECHLEITNER, ELAINE DUKE, KATIE TOBIN, RYAN SCUDDER, PAUL THOMAS, TIM DEVINE and MORGAN RYAN. What to Read — Kathleen Kingsbury, The New York Times: The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History — Judd Devermont, Post Strategy: On Engagement — Matthew Kassel, Jewish Insider: How Congress became impotent on foreign policy Monday Today — Council on Foreign Relations, 12:15 p.m.: The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals: Risks, Resilience, and Resource Control — Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: A book discussion on 'Decolonizing Ukraine: The Indigenous People of Crimea and Pathways to Freedom' Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who fail to pass any visa vetting requirements.
Politico
29-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Stopping Beijing's spies is… complicated
With help from John Sakellariadis, Robbie Gramer and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The Trump administration's effort to 'aggressively revoke' visas of Chinese students in the U.S. is, in part, borne out of espionage concerns. But it's unclear if the move will be a blow to Chinese intelligence operations or cost America valuable influence with Chinese nationals studying at the nation's colleges and universities. China does use some of the hundreds of thousands of its citizens studying at American universities to spy on its behalf. Those efforts, which loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember caught the attention of lawmakers earlier this year, are primarily focused on gaining information about sensitive technologies. Beijing's agents also surveil and intimidate Chinese nationals living, working and studying in the United States. Counterintelligence officials have long grappled with how to curb Chinese espionage efforts at U.S. universities without casting aspersions on innocent academics and students. The FBI's China Initiative, established during President DONALD TRUMP's first term to protect U.S. science and technology from Chinese espionage, was shuttered after a review during the Biden administration found that it created a 'harmful perception' of racial bias. A number of researchers and academics with Chinese roots have been wrongly accused of espionage. NICHOLAS EFTIMIADES, an expert on Chinese espionage, questioned the ultimate efficacy of the policy in curtailing economic spying. 'If the goal is taking players off the field, I get it. Makes perfect sense,' he said. 'If the goal is trying to limit access to technology, it's not the most effective way of dealing with this type of situation.' Why? Eftimiades argued that China would likely just send more operatives to British and Australian universities — which possess similar tech expertise and regularly collaborate with U.S. universities. Some former intelligence officials acknowledged that greater scrutiny of Chinese students' visas is needed. 'We do need to manage the numbers and do a better job at looking at the provenance of some of these students,' said SUSAN MILLER, a six-time CIA station chief who retired from the agency last year. Miller added that she doesn't support a blanket ban on all Chinese students. But any restrictions, Miller explained, need to be weighed against the discrete, soft power advantage to welcoming students from China. 'A lot of these students come here and they become pro-democracy,' Miller said. Some evidence exists that Chinese students educated in the United States indeed view democracy more favorably than their counterparts who studied at Chinese universities, though it is unclear how widespread that effect is. There's also the possibility that Chinese nationals in the U.S. could be ripe targets for the U.S. intel agencies to recruit as assets against Beijing, but their value may be limited, said Eftimiades. 'If you're reduced to that, that's not a great intelligence capability,' he said. 'It's not like you're recruiting someone who is inside the inner ranks of the PLA.' The State Department is standing firm behind its current approach. Spokesperson TAMMY BRUCE told reporters at a briefing today that 'the Trump administration is focused on protecting our nation and our citizens by upholding our national security and public safety through our visa process.' The Inbox LIMITED SUPPLIES IN GAZA: Humanitarian aid is flowing into the Gaza Strip. But already there are worries that the aid being distributed is insufficient to meet the needs of the war-torn enclave. The Wall Street Journal's Abeer Ayyoub, Suha Ma'ayeh and Anat Peled report that thousands of Palestinians lined up outside two distribution centers in southern Gaza today. And as people heard about food running out, there was disorder and crowding. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, created by Israel to distribute aid within the enclave, says it distributed tens of thousands of boxes in the territory directly to families. But Gazans told the Journal that people are surviving on just one meal a day and not enough people have received food aid. The continued shortages are stoking fears that Israel's looming military operations in the Gaza Strip and expected seizure of most of the enclave will usher in a full-fledged famine. They've also created discomfort among Israel's European allies, who have openly begun questioning the aims of Israel's war effort in the Gaza Strip at this juncture. MUSK'S ODNI PIT STOP: Days before relinquishing the reins of DOGE, Trump adviser ELON MUSK had a rendezvous with Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD. Gabbard uploaded a photo on her X account Wednesday night of a meeting she recently held with the controversial tech tycoon, who announced his exit from DOGE the same night. 'It was great hosting @elonmusk at ODNI to discuss how we can best leverage cutting edge technological tools and public-private partnerships to increase innovation and ensure our nation's security,' Gabbard wrote. Asked for additional information on the meet-up, a spokesperson for Gabbard said that the meeting actually took place last week. Gabbard also showed Musk ODNI's National Counterterrorism Center operations center, the spokesperson said, and overall the two exchanged ideas on several largely tech-focused topics. IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team on X and Bluesky at: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @ @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes STEALTH EDITS: The Trump administration is quietly revising an Obama-era plan for responding to cyberattacks against government agencies, and drawing internal pushback in the process. As our own John Sakellariadis scooped in today's Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!), the National Security Council's cyber team wants to update Presidential Policy Directive 41, which defines the kinds of breaches that constitute major risks to the country, and how different federal agencies will coordinate their responses to them. Trump officials are arguing that the plan was published before some key cyber agencies existed and at a time when threats from other countries, including China, were less pervasive. But the FBI is protesting, since it would be removed from its perch as the 'lead agency for threat response activities.' The White House's logic is that CISA, Cyber Command or the Office of the National Cyber Director should also be empowered in cases of cyber breaches. It's unclear what the tensions with the FBI, which is led by Trump ally KASH PATEL, could mean for the fate of the NSC's efforts. After all, Patel enjoys considerable sway with Trump and support on Capitol Hill, but so too do Secretary of State (and acting national security adviser) MARCO RUBIO and Secretary of Homeland Security KRISTI NOEM, whose agencies are involved in the efforts to update PPD-41. The Complex HEGSETH'S SHANGRI-LA DEBUT: Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH is off to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore this weekend — and he has a plan to convince Asian leaders that the U.S. is still a more trustworthy partner than China. Defense officials told Reuters' Idrees Ali that Hegseth plans to exploit the fact that China isn't sending Defense Minister DONG JUN to the defense confab in Singapore to pitch allies in Asia that Washington will be a resolute partner and that there need be no 'uncertainty' about the future of the U.S. in the region. Joining him will be Gabbard and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. DAN CAINE. But Asian allies were concerned by Trump's moves early in his term to move air defense systems from Asia to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran. Turmoil at the Pentagon and the White House's approach to Europe haven't quieted worries that the administration could be similarly mercurial toward Asia in the future. On the Hill BUKELE'S BLUE DOG ALLY: After putting all his eggs in the Trump team basket, Salvadoran President NAYIB BUKELE isn't exactly loved by Democrats these days. But our colleague Ben Jacobs found one House member who still thinks Democrats should work with Bukele. Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ (D-Texas) is just one of two Democrats in the House El Salvador Caucus these days, and he told Ben that Bukele's efforts to stabilize the country, which was ravaged until very recently by rampant and out-of-control gang violence, should still be lauded. He also encouraged Democrats to build a relationship with the Central American leader. 'I think Democrats … shouldn't shy from building a diplomatic relationship with the country of El Salvador,' Gonzalez said. 'I think we have a lot in common. And I don't think Bukele comes from an extreme right-wing history. I think he's kind of been a middle-of-the-road survivor.' Democrats have protested alleged human rights abuses associated with Bukele's crackdown on gang violence, which has centered around the mass incarceration of suspected gang members. And the brutal conditions in Salvadoran prisons have come into greater focus as Bukele has accepted undocumented migrants deported from the United States accused, sometimes dubiously, of being members of gangs. Democrats have also rallied around the case of KILMAR ABREGO GARCIA, whose family argues he was wrongfully deported back to El Salvador in contravention of a court order. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — LAWMAKER'S NEW CHINA ROLE: Sen. ANDY KIM (D-N.J.) has been tapped to serve on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, or CECC, NatSec Daily has learned. Kim formerly worked at the State Department and National Security Council before he ran for public office and has become a leading voice in Democratic circles on China policy. He'll join the influential commission that helps shape U.S. strategy on human rights and rule of law issues in China. The commission consists of nine senators, nine House members and five senior administration officials appointed by the president. Broadsides NORTH KOREA'S UKRAINE ROLE: An international monitoring group — which the United States is a member of — is warning that cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang in Ukraine is helping the Russian military launch devastating strikes against Ukrainian cities. Per the report from the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team — whose other members are Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom — North Korea supplied munitions and ammunition that contributed to 'targeted strikes against critical civilian infrastructure.' In return, Russia supported North Korea's ballistic missile programs and provided Pyongyang with air defense equipment, anti-aircraft missiles and electronic warfare systems. The report is the latest accounting for the blossoming partnership between the two autocracies, especially since Russia blocked the renewal of a U.N. sanctions regime at the Security Council last year. North Korea and Russia made the ties official in April, as North Korea confirmed it deployed troops to Ukraine and signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty with Russia. But neither country has confirmed explicitly transfers of technology or equipment. Transitions — Former U.S. Pacific Command chief Retired Adm. JOHN C. AQUILINO joined Red Cell as an adviser to its national security practice. — The McCain Institute at Arizona State University has appointed CINDY DYER as its new chief program officer. Dyer was most recently U.S. ambassador-at-large to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons. — STEVE SZROM is now deputy general counsel for the House Select China Committee. He previously was senior counsel on the committee. — VEDANT PATEL is now a senior vice president in SKDK's public affairs practice. He previously was principal deputy spokesperson at the State Department. — MELANIE FONDER KAYE has joined the National League of Cities as senior executive and director of digital engagement, marketing and comms. She previously was deputy assistant to the secretary of Defense for strategic engagement and worked for former first lady JILL BIDEN. What to Read — Robbie Gramer, POLITICO: Rubio outlines plans to drastically cut human rights offices in State — David Pierson, The New York Times: How China Uses Work to Reshape Uyghur Identity and Control a Strategic Region — Michael Albertus, Americas Quarterly: Hardliners Are Poised to Dominate New Phase of U.S.-Venezuela Relations — M. Alejandra Parra-Orlandoni, War on The Rocks: Women in the Ranks, but Not in the Clear Tomorrow Today — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: Should Trump Disengage From Peace Efforts in Ukraine? Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who would make terrible recruits for Chinese espionage.
Politico
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Avoiding a JCPOA revival
Presented by With help from Nahal Toosi, Giselle Ewing and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric If there's a new Iran deal on the table, Republicans are really hoping it's not the same as the old Iran deal. President DONALD TRUMP's administration said it has handed Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal in part of its monthslong bid to negotiate on Tehran dismantling its nuclear program. Iran's foreign minister, ABBAS ARAGHCHI, said it hasn't received any written proposal yet and called the Trump administration's stances 'confusing and contradictory.' The pressure is building for Trump's team to demonstrate that its deal won't reprise the Obama-era nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, that Republicans widely panned. Publicly, top Trump officials, including his special envoy STEVE WITKOFF, say they won't sign onto any agreement that would allow Iran to enrich uranium. But privately, Trump's team is looking to make a deal and is flexible on the question of whether Tehran could enrich at low levels, according to two European officials and a former Trump administration official, all granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions. 'Trump has been led to believe that low level enrichment isn't a threat – this is the compromise JOHN KERRY made in the JCPOA,' the former Trump administration official said, referring to Obama's former secretary of State who helped negotiate the JCPOA. Asked about the Trump team's position on enrichment, a Witkoff spokesperson pointed to his remarks last week in an interview with Breitbart, where he definitively said no. When leaving the deal in 2018, Trump criticized the accord for allowing 'Iran to continue enriching uranium and, over time, reach the brink of a nuclear breakout.' Every Republican senator except Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) sent a letter to Trump this week urging him not to back an agreement that allows any uranium enrichment. MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a fierce critic of Iran's regime, told NatSec Daily that Iran will want to preserve its enrichment capabilities in any deal, which could scuttle the negotiations or leave Trump to sell a deal to a Republicans who have indicated they oppose it. Iran, for its part, has said it will agree to something close to the JCPOA, under which Iran agreed to strict nuclear curbs that expired over time in exchange for sanctions relief. ALI SHAMKHANI, a top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI, told NBC this week that Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, eliminating stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, enriching uranium only to lower levels needed for civilian use and allowing international inspectors to supervise it in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions on Iran. In addition to enrichment, another key Republican criticism of the Obama-era deal was that it did not cover non-nuclear issues with Iran, such as its missile program. 'It has to at least focus on the missiles too, … and I haven't heard anyone who wants to talk about that,' the former Trump official said. The Inbox FACE TO FACE: After months of impasse on peace talks, Trump is saying it's time for him to meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. 'I think it's time for us to just do it,' he told reporters as he wrapped up his trip to the Middle East today. 'We've got to get it done,' he said of talks to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, which has been raging for three years since Russia first launched its unprovoked, full-scale invasion in 2022. When asked when he would meet with Putin, Trump said: 'As soon as we can set it up.' Trump's comments came after Ukrainian and Russian officials met for talks in Turkey this week. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY had challenged Putin to show up in Turkey for talks and said he'd meet with him if he did. Putin didn't show up, instead sending lower-level technocrats. Those talks — the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years — didn't yield any major breakthroughs. But both sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, as our colleague Veronika Melkozerova reports from Kyiv. SPENDING PRESSURES: As the Trump administration pushes NATO allies to boost defense spending to 5 percent ahead of a major alliance summit this summer, Canada could find itself in the MAGA crosshairs… again. Canada, already grappling with less-than-stellar relations with Trump, is one of eight allies that lags behind on the current NATO benchmark of spending 2 percent on defense. (It's at 1.37 percent, though the Canadian government has outlined plans to hit that target by 2030.) The United States spends around 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense. Under a new proposal from NATO, allies would be asked to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense and 1.5 percent on other security-related priorities. In an interview with our colleague Mike Blanchfield, Trump's new Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA said Canada could be in a 'good spot' if it can get to 2 percent before 2030. Canadian Prime Minister MARK CARNEY is 'in a better position, but he is going to have to recognize that on June 30, NATO and [Secretary of State MARCO] RUBIO and the president may come back to him and say, 'Oh, well, it'll happen before that.'' PROMOTIONS BLOWBACK: Rank-and-file diplomats are up in arms over proposed plans by the Trump administration to shake up how promotion processes work this week, according to internal documents and interviews with five current and former senior U.S. diplomats who spoke to your lead NatSec Daily author and our own Nahal Toosi. Internal promotion processes are wonky, but diplomats say they are an important institutional part of promoting career diplomats, including ambassadors who will serve at the frontlines of U.S. policies to counter China and Russia abroad. The changes include installing a 'jury duty' system for people to serve on the boards instead of asking for volunteers, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The boards also will meet virtually instead of in-person, which department officials say will save taxpayer dollars on travel for diplomats involved. The changes take effect next month. The shake-up also underscores how far Trump appointees are going to root out any semblance of diversity, equity and inclusion policies from the diplomatic corps. Some of the diplomats say this was a driving factor for LEW OLOWSKI, the top official in the Bureau of Global Talent Management, to shake up promotion boards. (As loyal NatSec Daily readers will recall, Olowski's promotion to the top HR job in the State Department angered some officials who charged he did not meet the qualifications for the post.) Some officials sharply disputed that the promotion boards were affected by DEI policies. When approached for comment, the State Department said in a statement that it is adjusting the Foreign Service Selection Boards processes to 'reduce costs and increase the integrity of the process.' DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring BRAD BOWMAN, senior director at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. Teetotalers rejoice: Bowman, a U.S. Army veteran who served as a senior staffer on military and national security policy to Republican senators, is a paragon of healthy living if we're judging him by his drink choice. 'If you are looking for an exotic cocktail, you came to the wrong guy,' Brad said. (To the contrary Brad, we love hearing about drinks of choice from all natsec wonks, regardless of whether they fall on a cocktail menu or not.) Brad's pick: 'I typically go for a ginormous glass of cold 1 percent lactose-free milk,' he said. What better way to build strong bones? And if not that? 'If I am feeling really saucy, need a break from troubling headlines, or celebrating something with the family, I go for a Martinelli's Sparkling Cider on the rocks,' he said. 'Très chic, I know.' Well, Brad, chic is in the eye of the beholder. So cheers to you! IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes PULLING PUNCHES: U.S. Cyber Command paused offensive operations aimed at Russia for one day this year as a negotiating tactic, House Armed Services cyber subcommittee Chair DON BACON (R-Neb.) said today. As our own Maggie Miller reports (for Pros!), during a subcommittee hearing on the Pentagon's cyber posture, Bacon confirmed reports in late February that Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH directed Cyber Command to stand down from planning on all matters regarding Russia, including offensive actions. This is significant because the Pentagon denied those reports at the time. The report sparked confusion and fury among Democratic lawmakers and European leaders, who viewed the move as a capitulation toward Russia during a time of tense negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Pentagon at the time denied that any stand-down order was made. 'I dug into this whole matter,' Bacon said. 'There was a one-day pause, which is typical for negotiations, that's about as much as I can say, a one-day pause.' Spokespeople for the Pentagon and Cyber Command did not immediately respond to Maggie's requests for comment on Bacon's claim. The Complex ABOUT THOSE TUBERVILLE HOLDS: A government watchdog report has found that Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE's prolonged blockade of senior military promotions affected military families, officer pay and leadership changes — but did not affect military readiness among rank-and-file troops, as our own Joe Gould reports for Morning Defense (for Pros!). Tuberville's nearly yearlong hold — a protest of the Biden administration's abortion travel policy —ensnared 447 officers up for promotions for one- to four-star ranks and drew bipartisan condemnation. The sweeping hold was a largely unprecedented move that dragged U.S. military ranks into the domestic dispute over abortion policies. Pentagon officials argued it would hurt national security; Tuberville argued it wouldn't. The GAO report released late Thursday, which doesn't name Tuberville explicitly, found no impact on unit-level readiness citing reports in 2023 and part of 2024, offering a final coda to the bitter political battle that occupied a major chapter of the Biden-era Pentagon. 'Our analysis did not find challenges to readiness — the ability to meet missions,' the report states. Broadsides BRINK SPEAKS OUT: Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK is speaking out for the first time on why she resigned from her post in a scathing op-ed today for the Detroit Free Press. Brink, a career diplomat who served five U.S. Republican and Democratic presidents, rebuked Trump's pressure on Ukraine amid his negotiations to end the ongoing Russian invasion. 'I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity,' she wrote in the op-ed. 'I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement.' 'And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering,' she added. Transitions — SOFIA CHAVEZ is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as media relations manager for external relations. She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.). What to Read — Derek Own and R.M. Schneiderman, POLITICO: 'We've Got a F--king Spy in This Place': Inside America's Greatest Espionage Mystery — Mike Blanchfield, POLITICO: Mark Carney mixes faith and foreign affairs in Rome — Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy Magazine: Latin American Economies Look to China as U.S. Slashes Aid Monday Today — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: U.S.-Latvia Resilience Conference — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The Rt. Hon. Sir IAIN DUNCAN SMITH MP on How the West Can Overcome the Totalitarian Axis Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who should bow to our military pressure to give up their illicit nuclear program.
Politico
18-03-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Why an ‘energy infrastructure' ceasefire may be doable
Presented by With help from Robbie Gramer, Veronika Melkozerova and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN's agreement to a ceasefire with Ukraine that covers energy-related infrastructure today is striking because that's close to what Kyiv initially was pushing for — a limited ceasefire that included energy sites. It was only under intense pressure from President DONALD TRUMP that Ukraine said it would go for a full, 30-day ceasefire. Putin wasn't up for that either (at least not in any way Ukraine would accept). Instead he and Trump agreed simply to begin negotiations for a future 'a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and a permanent peace,' according to the White House. Now, both sides can keep up some fighting while avoiding, for example, power plants for a few weeks. (Russia's readout of the call says the energy ceasefire is for 30 days; the White House readout didn't offer a timeframe.) A person familiar with the thinking in Kyiv told NatSec Daily that while Ukraine will be parsing the details as they emerge, there's hope there that the readouts of the call can be taken at their word because they align with Ukraine's earlier proposals. NatSec Daily granted the individual anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. But there's certainly frustration inside some parts of the Ukrainian government that Kyiv won't be able to hit Russia where it hurts the most: its sprawling network of oil refineries. Ukrainian member of parliament and soldier ROMAN LOZINSKYJ said in a Facebook post that 'in essence, Putin has quietly confirmed to Trump how much our deep strikes are hurting the Russian energy sector. This is our card.' Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY was cautious, telling reporters that he wished to see more details and that he hoped Trump would call him to share that information. 'We are skeptical from the point of view of trust in the Russians,' Zelenskyy said. 'There is no trust in Putin. That's why I say we need to understand how technically this will happen so that it does not depend only on Russian wishes.' As he spoke, Russia was hitting Kyiv with drone strikes. There were some reports that Putin was considering proposing the U.S. pause military aid to Ukraine during the span of any ceasefire deal and that Russia wanted assurances that Ukraine will never join NATO or the European Union following the end of fighting. While those conditions don't appear to apply to the energy ceasefire, it's still possible that Russia will try to impose them as talks go forth on longer-term truces. The talks are to be held in the Middle East. According to the Russian readout, 'it was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution through political and diplomatic means should be the complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.' The word 'foreign' shows Putin doesn't want European countries to supply weapons to Ukraine in the future, either. READ: European leaders warn Putin's talk of peace is a mirage, a dispatch from our own Robbie Gramer, who is attending the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi. The Inbox GAZA CEASEFIRE UNDER FIRE: The fate of the Gaza ceasefire is in question after Israel launched a major wave of airstrikes against Hamas targets early this morning. The Israeli airstrikes — coming as it expressed frustration with Hamas' approach to peace talks and hesitation to release more hostages — reportedly killed hundreds and prompted condemnation from Arab countries. Meanwhile, far-right Israeli politician ITAMAR BEN-GVIR — who has called for resuming the war — said his ultranationalist party would rejoin Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU's coalition. Both the U.S. and Israel have been critical of Hamas in recent weeks. U.S. envoy STEVE WITKOFF warned Hamas in a recent statement that its dawdling on extending the ceasefire would face a swift and decisive response. On Monday, White House spokesperson KAROLINE LEAVITT told Fox News the Trump administration supported the Israeli strikes. SOME ADVICE FOR CARNEY: Former Canadian Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER has a simple message for Ottawa's dealings with Trump: Have a plan — but don't rise to the bait. As Robbie wrote in today's Ottawa Playbook, Harper said at the Raisina Dialogue: 'There's a difference between taking some hard negotiating positions versus just shooting insults back. … That may be emotionally satisfying, but it's not a terribly effective way of dealing with a much larger country, and I think actually quite counterproductive.' He also fretted over the decline of what he and many other global leaders call 'the rules-based international order' as Trump dramatically shakes up Washington's role in the world. But, true to his own advice, he voiced concerns over the United States without lobbing any potshots explicitly at Trump. 'You've had over the past couple generations China, Russia and Iran with I think increasing success being able to jump in and out of the rules-based order as it suits them,' Harper said. 'Now you have, to be candid, the United States — really the originator of that post-war order — largely doing the same thing.' His comments come as new Prime Minister MARK CARNEY strategizes over how to respond to Trump's diatribes towards the Great North. DOGE'S WAR ON PEACE: The U.S. Institute of Peace is embroiled in a struggle for power as operatives of Trump adviser ELON MUSK's Department of Government Efficiency have seized the organization's headquarters and tried to oust its leaders. Today, Trump appointee KENNETH JACKSON, just named USIP's acting president, told USIP staff that they must, essentially, register with the new leadership. One Jackson email, obtained by Nahal, shows it's coming from an external source, suggesting Jackson still lacks full access to USIP's internal systems. A USIP employee, granted anonymity to avoid retribution, said the organization's 'actual leadership' told staff not to respond to the email, citing cybersecurity risks. USIP had for weeks tried to explain to DOGE that it is not a government agency, having been created by Congress as an independent nonprofit corporation. But Trump gutted most of the USIP board. Then the remaining members — Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH, Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO and National Defense University President PETER GARVIN — installed Jackson as the acting USIP president. Booted USIP officials plan to fight the moves in court. Ousted acting President GEORGE MOOSE told reporters 'Our statute is very clear about the status of this building and this institute. … So what has happened here today is an illegal takeover by elements of the executive branch of a private nonprofit corporation.' GABBARD GABS IN INDIA: U.S. Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD gave a speech to the Raisina Dialogue today that was light on national security but heavy on spirituality. The words 'aloha and namaste,' she said, 'have very deep, spiritual, powerful meanings that, for me, have been at the core and heart of my life and are what I hope will inspire meaningful dialogue and conversations here.' She added that the two words are reminders that 'we are all connected, that we are all children of God, regardless of our race or religion, ethnicity, politics, our background, where we come from, our status in society.' The intel chief said that Trump wanted to boost U.S.-India security and economic ties and that 'America First is not America alone.' In what appeared to be an oblique reference to Trump's approach to the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, she said: 'It requires leaders have the courage to engage directly with both friends and adversaries alike, …who are not afraid to speak an inconvenient or unpopular truth tough questions, who challenge the established view, or the way things have always been done, to spark what may be hard but necessary conversations about the realities we face and the best way forward to advance our mutual cause of peace, freedom, security and prosperity.' IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team:@dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt,@jessicameyers,@RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi,@PhelimKine,@ak_mack,@connorobrienNH,@paulmcleary,@reporterjoe,@JackDetsch,@samuelskove,@magmill95,@johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel The Complex A NEW MINEFIELD: NATO member states on Russia's doorstep are moving toward ditching a marquee international treaty against the use of antipersonnel mines in combat, as anxieties about further Russian aggression grow on the other side of the Atlantic. As our colleague Laura Kayali reports, the defense ministers of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are recommending their capitals leave the Ottawa Treaty, a 1997 agreement that helped eliminate the indiscriminate weapons from most countries' arsenals. The U.S., Russia, China and India are notable non-signatories of the pact. In a statement, the four countries said that 'military threats to NATO member states bordering Russia and Belarus have significantly increased' and added that it's imperative they 'provide our defense forces flexibility and freedom of choice to potentially use new weapons systems and solutions to bolster the defence of the alliance's vulnerable Eastern flank.' Finland, which did not sign the joint statement, did signal it was also considering leaving the Ottawa Treaty. On the Hill MOOLENAAR'S TIKTOK PITCH: The head of the House China committee is arguing that TikTok needs to be completely severed from its China-linked publisher ByteDance, not just sold to a U.S. company. Chair JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.) took the pages of National Review this morning to argue that any sale of the popular social media app that does not remove it from ByteDance's 'algorithm and core applications' would allow the company to still access user data and 'influence and control the platform.' Such a deal, he says, would also violate the law Congress passed mandating its sale if it wishes to stay on U.S. app stores. 'There's still time for a 'deal of the century' — but only one that fully adheres to the law. ByteDance must divest, plain and simple,' Moolenaar wrote. 'If that doesn't happen, TikTok's days in America are numbered. This isn't just about an app; it's about the future of American tech, the integrity of our digital infrastructure, and the rule of law.' Moolenaar's comments are the latest signal from congressional GOP China hawks that they won't settle for a deal that doesn't satisfy all the terms of the bipartisan 2024 Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. They also follow reports that the White House is eyeing a deal that would allow Oracle to take over the app. Broadsides THE PANAMA PEANUT GALLERY: Hong Kong is souring on a deal between one of its major conglomerates, CK Hutchison, and asset management firm BlackRock to transfer ownership of the former's ports in Panama. As The New York Times' Alexandra Stevenson reports, the territory's Chief Executive JOHN LEE said the transaction deserves 'serious attention' and signaled regulators in Hong Kong may move to nix the transfer. The deal was seen as a way to diffuse Trump's intense scrutiny of the strategically critical waterway, which he claims is operating in a damaging way to U.S. vessels. Trump has threatened to take the Panama Canal, which was built by the U.S. and ceded to Panama in 1999 pursuant to a 1977 treaty between the two countries, by force if needed to protect U.S. interests. Lee's comments are also the latest sign of the increased synchronicity between Beijing and Hong Kong, despite the stated policy that Hong Kong retains operative and political autonomy. Chinese-owned media in the territory have lambasted the agreement, arguing it allows the United States to use the ports on the ends of the Panama Canal 'for political purposes and promote its own political agenda,' making Chinese shipping and trade 'subject to the United States' as a consequence. Transitions — NEZAR JAMAL is now associate director for outreach at Foreign Policy for America. He most recently was associate director of partnerships and outreach at National Security Action. — President JOE BIDEN's former deputy national security adviser for international economics DALEEP SINGH has rejoined PGIM Fixed Income as its chief global economist and head of global macroeconomic research. Singh held a similar role at PGIM prior to his return to the Biden White House in February 2024. — The Silicon Valley Defense Group named MIKE KEATING as its new executive director. He joined from Deep Labs AI, where he led the company's public sector business practice. What to Read — Christopher Chivvis, Foreign Affairs: The Fragile Axis of Upheaval — Bartosz Brzezinski. POLITICO: Poland accused of brutality as Belarus border crackdown escalates — Gabriel Gavin, POLITICO: Northern Europe pushes EU to speed up Ukraine membership — Fiona Harvey, The Guardian: Countries must bolster climate efforts or risk war, Cop30 chief executive warns Tomorrow Today — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: A forum on 'Global Prosperity' featuring remarks from director of the Office of Foreign Assistance and deputy administrator-designate in the State Department's U.S. Agency for International Development, PETER MAROCCO, and senior bureau official at the State Department's Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement, CART WEILAND — Georgetown University, 9 a.m.: Syria after Assad; A view from Israel — George Washington University, 10 a.m.: Human Rights Foundation College Freedom Forum 2025 — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Strategic Japan 2025: Norms in New Technological Domains — U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, 10:30 a.m.: Religious Freedom Conditions in Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan — George Washington University, 11 a.m.: Jewish History Colloquium: The German Democratic Republic's Jewish Diplomacy: Between Anti-Fascism, Anti-Zionism and Antisemitism — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Can Korea Manage Economic Security and Supply Chain Challenges? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: The state and local AI regulation landscape' — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12:30 p.m.: Authoritarian regimes, gender based violence: How right wing governments use the 'protective discourse' to justify their harms against women and girls. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2 p.m.: Bombing Iran's nuclear program: Implications of preventive action — Henry L. Stimson Center, 3:30 p.m.: Security and sovereignty: Exploring Canada's vision for land power — Jerusalem Fund and the Institute for Palestine Studies-USA (IPS-USA), 6:30 p.m.: A book discussion on 'No Way But Forward: Life Stories of Three Families in the Gaza Strip,' following the accounts of three ordinary young Palestinian men over the past thirty years, including the year following October 7, 2023. Thanks to our editors Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who would be great trustees of a U.S. Institute of War.
