Avoiding a JCPOA revival
Presented by
With help from Nahal Toosi, Giselle Ewing and Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric
If there's a new Iran deal on the table, Republicans are really hoping it's not the same as the old Iran deal.
President DONALD TRUMP's administration said it has handed Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal in part of its monthslong bid to negotiate on Tehran dismantling its nuclear program. Iran's foreign minister, ABBAS ARAGHCHI, said it hasn't received any written proposal yet and called the Trump administration's stances 'confusing and contradictory.'
The pressure is building for Trump's team to demonstrate that its deal won't reprise the Obama-era nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, that Republicans widely panned.
Publicly, top Trump officials, including his special envoy STEVE WITKOFF, say they won't sign onto any agreement that would allow Iran to enrich uranium. But privately, Trump's team is looking to make a deal and is flexible on the question of whether Tehran could enrich at low levels, according to two European officials and a former Trump administration official, all granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.
'Trump has been led to believe that low level enrichment isn't a threat – this is the compromise JOHN KERRY made in the JCPOA,' the former Trump administration official said, referring to Obama's former secretary of State who helped negotiate the JCPOA.
Asked about the Trump team's position on enrichment, a Witkoff spokesperson pointed to his remarks last week in an interview with Breitbart, where he definitively said no.
When leaving the deal in 2018, Trump criticized the accord for allowing 'Iran to continue enriching uranium and, over time, reach the brink of a nuclear breakout.'
Every Republican senator except Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) sent a letter to Trump this week urging him not to back an agreement that allows any uranium enrichment.
MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a fierce critic of Iran's regime, told NatSec Daily that Iran will want to preserve its enrichment capabilities in any deal, which could scuttle the negotiations or leave Trump to sell a deal to a Republicans who have indicated they oppose it.
Iran, for its part, has said it will agree to something close to the JCPOA, under which Iran agreed to strict nuclear curbs that expired over time in exchange for sanctions relief.
ALI SHAMKHANI, a top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI, told NBC this week that Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, eliminating stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, enriching uranium only to lower levels needed for civilian use and allowing international inspectors to supervise it in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions on Iran.
In addition to enrichment, another key Republican criticism of the Obama-era deal was that it did not cover non-nuclear issues with Iran, such as its missile program.
'It has to at least focus on the missiles too, … and I haven't heard anyone who wants to talk about that,' the former Trump official said.
The Inbox
FACE TO FACE: After months of impasse on peace talks, Trump is saying it's time for him to meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. 'I think it's time for us to just do it,' he told reporters as he wrapped up his trip to the Middle East today.
'We've got to get it done,' he said of talks to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, which has been raging for three years since Russia first launched its unprovoked, full-scale invasion in 2022. When asked when he would meet with Putin, Trump said: 'As soon as we can set it up.'
Trump's comments came after Ukrainian and Russian officials met for talks in Turkey this week. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY had challenged Putin to show up in Turkey for talks and said he'd meet with him if he did. Putin didn't show up, instead sending lower-level technocrats.
Those talks — the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years — didn't yield any major breakthroughs. But both sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, as our colleague Veronika Melkozerova reports from Kyiv.
SPENDING PRESSURES: As the Trump administration pushes NATO allies to boost defense spending to 5 percent ahead of a major alliance summit this summer, Canada could find itself in the MAGA crosshairs… again. Canada, already grappling with less-than-stellar relations with Trump, is one of eight allies that lags behind on the current NATO benchmark of spending 2 percent on defense. (It's at 1.37 percent, though the Canadian government has outlined plans to hit that target by 2030.) The United States spends around 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense. Under a new proposal from NATO, allies would be asked to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense and 1.5 percent on other security-related priorities.
In an interview with our colleague Mike Blanchfield, Trump's new Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA said Canada could be in a 'good spot' if it can get to 2 percent before 2030. Canadian Prime Minister MARK CARNEY is 'in a better position, but he is going to have to recognize that on June 30, NATO and [Secretary of State MARCO] RUBIO and the president may come back to him and say, 'Oh, well, it'll happen before that.''
PROMOTIONS BLOWBACK: Rank-and-file diplomats are up in arms over proposed plans by the Trump administration to shake up how promotion processes work this week, according to internal documents and interviews with five current and former senior U.S. diplomats who spoke to your lead NatSec Daily author and our own Nahal Toosi.
Internal promotion processes are wonky, but diplomats say they are an important institutional part of promoting career diplomats, including ambassadors who will serve at the frontlines of U.S. policies to counter China and Russia abroad.
The changes include installing a 'jury duty' system for people to serve on the boards instead of asking for volunteers, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The boards also will meet virtually instead of in-person, which department officials say will save taxpayer dollars on travel for diplomats involved. The changes take effect next month.
The shake-up also underscores how far Trump appointees are going to root out any semblance of diversity, equity and inclusion policies from the diplomatic corps. Some of the diplomats say this was a driving factor for LEW OLOWSKI, the top official in the Bureau of Global Talent Management, to shake up promotion boards. (As loyal NatSec Daily readers will recall, Olowski's promotion to the top HR job in the State Department angered some officials who charged he did not meet the qualifications for the post.) Some officials sharply disputed that the promotion boards were affected by DEI policies.
When approached for comment, the State Department said in a statement that it is adjusting the Foreign Service Selection Boards processes to 'reduce costs and increase the integrity of the process.'
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we're featuring BRAD BOWMAN, senior director at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. Teetotalers rejoice: Bowman, a U.S. Army veteran who served as a senior staffer on military and national security policy to Republican senators, is a paragon of healthy living if we're judging him by his drink choice.
'If you are looking for an exotic cocktail, you came to the wrong guy,' Brad said. (To the contrary Brad, we love hearing about drinks of choice from all natsec wonks, regardless of whether they fall on a cocktail menu or not.)
Brad's pick: 'I typically go for a ginormous glass of cold 1 percent lactose-free milk,' he said. What better way to build strong bones? And if not that? 'If I am feeling really saucy, need a break from troubling headlines, or celebrating something with the family, I go for a Martinelli's Sparkling Cider on the rocks,' he said. 'Très chic, I know.'
Well, Brad, chic is in the eye of the beholder. So cheers to you!
IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel
Keystrokes
PULLING PUNCHES: U.S. Cyber Command paused offensive operations aimed at Russia for one day this year as a negotiating tactic, House Armed Services cyber subcommittee Chair DON BACON (R-Neb.) said today.
As our own Maggie Miller reports (for Pros!), during a subcommittee hearing on the Pentagon's cyber posture, Bacon confirmed reports in late February that Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH directed Cyber Command to stand down from planning on all matters regarding Russia, including offensive actions. This is significant because the Pentagon denied those reports at the time.
The report sparked confusion and fury among Democratic lawmakers and European leaders, who viewed the move as a capitulation toward Russia during a time of tense negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Pentagon at the time denied that any stand-down order was made.
'I dug into this whole matter,' Bacon said. 'There was a one-day pause, which is typical for negotiations, that's about as much as I can say, a one-day pause.'
Spokespeople for the Pentagon and Cyber Command did not immediately respond to Maggie's requests for comment on Bacon's claim.
The Complex
ABOUT THOSE TUBERVILLE HOLDS: A government watchdog report has found that Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE's prolonged blockade of senior military promotions affected military families, officer pay and leadership changes — but did not affect military readiness among rank-and-file troops, as our own Joe Gould reports for Morning Defense (for Pros!).
Tuberville's nearly yearlong hold — a protest of the Biden administration's abortion travel policy —ensnared 447 officers up for promotions for one- to four-star ranks and drew bipartisan condemnation. The sweeping hold was a largely unprecedented move that dragged U.S. military ranks into the domestic dispute over abortion policies. Pentagon officials argued it would hurt national security; Tuberville argued it wouldn't.
The GAO report released late Thursday, which doesn't name Tuberville explicitly, found no impact on unit-level readiness citing reports in 2023 and part of 2024, offering a final coda to the bitter political battle that occupied a major chapter of the Biden-era Pentagon. 'Our analysis did not find challenges to readiness — the ability to meet missions,' the report states.
Broadsides
BRINK SPEAKS OUT: Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK is speaking out for the first time on why she resigned from her post in a scathing op-ed today for the Detroit Free Press.
Brink, a career diplomat who served five U.S. Republican and Democratic presidents, rebuked Trump's pressure on Ukraine amid his negotiations to end the ongoing Russian invasion.
'I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity,' she wrote in the op-ed. 'I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement.'
'And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering,' she added.
Transitions
— SOFIA CHAVEZ is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as media relations manager for external relations. She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.).
What to Read
— Derek Own and R.M. Schneiderman, POLITICO: 'We've Got a F--king Spy in This Place': Inside America's Greatest Espionage Mystery
— Mike Blanchfield, POLITICO: Mark Carney mixes faith and foreign affairs in Rome
— Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy Magazine: Latin American Economies Look to China as U.S. Slashes Aid
Monday Today
— Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: U.S.-Latvia Resilience Conference
— Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The Rt. Hon. Sir IAIN DUNCAN SMITH MP on How the West Can Overcome the Totalitarian Axis
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who should bow to our military pressure to give up their illicit nuclear program.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
11 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
FCC Commissioner Simington Steps Down, Joining Starks
Two members of the Federal Communications Commission announced that they'll leave the agency this week. Democrat Geoffrey Starks, who had previously announced he was stepping down without identifying a departure date, said he will leave on Friday. Republican Nathan Simington will also depart at the end of the week.
Chicago Tribune
12 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
President Donald Trump tax bill will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit and leave 10.9 million more uninsured, CBO says
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump's big bill making its way through Congress will cut taxes by $3.75 trillion but also increase deficits by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO also estimates an increase of 10.9 million people without health insurance under the bill by 2034, including 1.4 million who are in the United States without legal status in state-funded programs. The package would reduce federal outlays, or spending, by nearly $1.3 trillion over that period, the budget office said. What is the CBO? A look at the small office inflaming debate over Trump's tax bill'In the words of Elon Musk, this bill is a 'disgusting abomination,'' said Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, reviving the billionaire former Trump aide's criticism of the package. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he called Musk late Tuesday to discuss the criticism but had not heard back. 'I hope he comes around,' Johnson told reporters. The analysis comes at a crucial moment in the legislative process as Trump is pushing Congress to have the final product on his desk to sign into law by the Fourth of July. The work of the CBO, which for decades has served as the official scorekeeper of legislation in Congress, will be weighed by lawmakers and others seeking to understand the budgetary impacts of the sprawling 1,000-page-plus package. Ahead of the CBO's release, the White House and Republican leaders criticized the budget office in a preemptive campaign designed to sow doubt in its findings. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the CBO has been 'historically wrong,' and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the CBO was 'flat wrong' because it underestimated the potential revenue growth from Trump's first round of tax breaks in 2017. The CBO last year said receipts were $1.5 trillion, or 5.6% greater than predicted, in large part because of the 'burst of high inflation' during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. White House Budget Director Russ Vought said when you adjust for 'current policy' — which means not counting some $4.5 trillion in existing tax breaks that are simply being extended for the next decade — the overall package actually doesn't pile onto the deficit. He argued the spending cuts alone in fact help reduce deficits by $1.4 trillion over the decade. Democrats and even some Republicans call that 'current policy' accounting move a gimmick, but it's the approach Senate Republicans intend to use during their consideration of the package to try to show it does not add to the nation's deficits. Vought argued that the CBO is the one using a 'gimmick' by tallying the costs of continuing those tax breaks that would otherwise expire. Leavitt also suggested that the CBO's employees are biased, even though certain budget office workers face strict ethical rules — including restrictions on campaign donations and political activity — to ensure objectivity and impartiality. 'When it comes time to make prognostications on economic growth, they've always been wrong,' House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said at a press conference. Asked if it's time to get rid of the CBO, Scalise did not dismiss the idea, saying it's valid to raise concerns. Alongside the costs of the bill, the CBO had previously estimated that nearly 4 million fewer people would have food stamps each month due to the legislation's proposed changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP. The bill, called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act after the president's own catch phrase, is grinding its way through Congress, as the top priority of Republicans, who control both the House and the Senate — and face stiff opposition from Democrats, who call it Trump's 'big, ugly bill.' All told, the package seeks to extend the individual income tax breaks that had been approved in 2017 but that will expire in December if Congress fails to act, while adding new ones, including no taxes on tips. It also includes a massive buildup of $350 billion for border security, deportations and national security. To help cover the lost revenue, Republicans want to slash some federal spending. They propose phasing out green energy tax breaks put in place during Democrat Joe Biden's presidency. New work requirements for some adults up to age 65 on Medicaid and SNAP would begin in December 2026 and are expected to result in less spending on those programs. Republicans argue their proposals are intended to make Medicaid and other programs stronger by rooting out waste, fraud and abuse. They want the federal funding to go those who most need health care and other services, often citing women and children. But Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said those claims are bogus and are simply part of long-running GOP efforts to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, as most states have expanded Medicaid to serve more people under the program. 'They just want to strangle health care,' Schumer said. The package also would provide a $4 trillion increase to the nation's debt limit, which is now $36 trillion, to allow more borrowing. The Treasury Department projects the debt limit will need to be raised this summer to pay the nation's already accrued bills. Now in its 50th year, the CBO was established by law after Congress sought to assert its control, as outlined in the Constitution, over the budget process, in part by setting up the new office as an alternative to the White House's Office of Management and Budget. Staffed by some 275 economists, analysts and other employees, the CBO says it seeks to provide Congress with objective, impartial information about budgetary and economic issues. Its current director, Phillip Swagel, a former Treasury official in Republican President George W. Bush's administration, was reappointed to a four-year term in 2023.
Chicago Tribune
12 minutes ago
- Chicago Tribune
What is the CBO? A look at the small office inflaming debate over President Donald Trump's tax bill
WASHINGTON — A small government office with some 275 employees has found itself caught in the political crossfire as Congress debates President Donald Trump's 'one big beautiful bill.' The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the legislation would increase federal deficits by about $2.4 trillion over 10 years. That's a problem for a Republican Congress that has spent much of the past four years criticizing former President Joe Biden and Democrats for the nation's rising debt levels. The White House and Republican leaders in Congress are taking issue with CBO's findings. They say economic growth will be higher than the office is projecting, resulting in more revenue coming into government coffers. Meanwhile, Democrats are touting CBO's findings as evidence of the bill's failings. President Donald Trump tax bill will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit and leave 10.9 million more uninsured, CBO saysHere's a look at the office at the center of Washington's latest political tug-of-war. Lawmakers established the Congressional Budget Office more than 50 years ago to provide objective, impartial analysis to support the budget process. The CBO is required to produce a cost estimate for nearly every bill approved by a House or Senate committee and will weigh in earlier when asked to do so by lawmakers. It also produces a report each Congress on how to reduce the debt if lawmakers so choose with each option including arguments for or against. Plus, it publishes detailed estimates when presidents make proposals that would affect mandator spending, which includes programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Lawmakers created the office to help Congress play a stronger role in budget matters, providing them with an alternative to the Office of Management and Budget, which is part of a Republican or Democratic administration, depending upon the president in office. CBO hires analysts based on their expertise, not political affiliation. Staff is expected to maintain objectivity and avoid political influence. In evaluating potential employees, the CBO says that for most positions it looks at whether that person would be perceived to be free from political bias. Like other federal employees, the CBO's staff is also prohibited from making political contributions to members of Congress. The CBO's director, Phillip Swagel, served in former Republican President George W. Bush's administration as an economic adviser and as an assistant secretary at the Treasury Department. The stakes are incredibly high with Republicans looking to pass their massive tax cut and immigration bill by early July. Outside groups, Democrats and some Republicans are highlighting CBO's analysis that the bill will increase federal deficits by about $2.4 trillion over 10 years and leave 10.9 million more people uninsured in 2034. Republicans spent much of Biden's presidency focused on curbing federal deficits. They don't want to be seen as contributing to the fiscal problem. GOP lawmakers say the CBO isn't giving enough credit to the economic growth the bill will create, to the point where it would be deficit-neutral in the long run, if not better. 'The CBO assumes long-term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8% and that is absurd,' said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. 'The American economy is going to boom like never before after the 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' is passed.' Republicans began taking issue with the CBO even before Trump and the current Congress were sworn into office. 'CBO will always predict a dark future when Republicans propose tax relief – but the reality is never so dire,' Rep. Jason Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said in a December news release. Recently, House Speaker Mike Johnson has been taking digs at the office. 'The CBO is notorious for getting things WRONG,' he said in a Facebook post. In April 2018, CBO said that tax receipts would total $27 trillion from fiscal years 2018 to 2024. Receipts came in about $1.5 trillion higher than the CBO projected. Republicans have seized on that discrepancy. But the numbers don't tell the whole story. Some of the criticism of the CBO ignores the context of a global pandemic as the federal government rushed to prop the economy up with massive spending bills under both Trump and Biden. In a blog post last December, Swagel pointed out three reasons for the higher revenues: The primary reason was the burst of inflation that began in March 2021 as the country was recovering from COVID. That burst of inflation, he said, led to about $900 billion more in revenue. There was also an increase in economic activity in 'the later years of the period' adding $700 billion. Also, new tariffs added about $250 billion, with other legislation partially offsetting those three factors.
