Avoiding a JCPOA revival

Politico

16-05-2025

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With help from Nahal Toosi, Giselle Ewing and Daniel Lippman
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If there's a new Iran deal on the table, Republicans are really hoping it's not the same as the old Iran deal.
President DONALD TRUMP's administration said it has handed Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal in part of its monthslong bid to negotiate on Tehran dismantling its nuclear program. Iran's foreign minister, ABBAS ARAGHCHI, said it hasn't received any written proposal yet and called the Trump administration's stances 'confusing and contradictory.'
The pressure is building for Trump's team to demonstrate that its deal won't reprise the Obama-era nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, that Republicans widely panned.
Publicly, top Trump officials, including his special envoy STEVE WITKOFF, say they won't sign onto any agreement that would allow Iran to enrich uranium. But privately, Trump's team is looking to make a deal and is flexible on the question of whether Tehran could enrich at low levels, according to two European officials and a former Trump administration official, all granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.
'Trump has been led to believe that low level enrichment isn't a threat – this is the compromise JOHN KERRY made in the JCPOA,' the former Trump administration official said, referring to Obama's former secretary of State who helped negotiate the JCPOA.
Asked about the Trump team's position on enrichment, a Witkoff spokesperson pointed to his remarks last week in an interview with Breitbart, where he definitively said no.
When leaving the deal in 2018, Trump criticized the accord for allowing 'Iran to continue enriching uranium and, over time, reach the brink of a nuclear breakout.'
Every Republican senator except Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) sent a letter to Trump this week urging him not to back an agreement that allows any uranium enrichment.
MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a fierce critic of Iran's regime, told NatSec Daily that Iran will want to preserve its enrichment capabilities in any deal, which could scuttle the negotiations or leave Trump to sell a deal to a Republicans who have indicated they oppose it.
Iran, for its part, has said it will agree to something close to the JCPOA, under which Iran agreed to strict nuclear curbs that expired over time in exchange for sanctions relief.
ALI SHAMKHANI, a top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI, told NBC this week that Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, eliminating stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, enriching uranium only to lower levels needed for civilian use and allowing international inspectors to supervise it in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions on Iran.
In addition to enrichment, another key Republican criticism of the Obama-era deal was that it did not cover non-nuclear issues with Iran, such as its missile program.
'It has to at least focus on the missiles too, … and I haven't heard anyone who wants to talk about that,' the former Trump official said.
The Inbox
FACE TO FACE: After months of impasse on peace talks, Trump is saying it's time for him to meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. 'I think it's time for us to just do it,' he told reporters as he wrapped up his trip to the Middle East today.
'We've got to get it done,' he said of talks to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, which has been raging for three years since Russia first launched its unprovoked, full-scale invasion in 2022. When asked when he would meet with Putin, Trump said: 'As soon as we can set it up.'
Trump's comments came after Ukrainian and Russian officials met for talks in Turkey this week. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY had challenged Putin to show up in Turkey for talks and said he'd meet with him if he did. Putin didn't show up, instead sending lower-level technocrats.
Those talks — the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years — didn't yield any major breakthroughs. But both sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, as our colleague Veronika Melkozerova reports from Kyiv.
SPENDING PRESSURES: As the Trump administration pushes NATO allies to boost defense spending to 5 percent ahead of a major alliance summit this summer, Canada could find itself in the MAGA crosshairs… again. Canada, already grappling with less-than-stellar relations with Trump, is one of eight allies that lags behind on the current NATO benchmark of spending 2 percent on defense. (It's at 1.37 percent, though the Canadian government has outlined plans to hit that target by 2030.) The United States spends around 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense. Under a new proposal from NATO, allies would be asked to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense and 1.5 percent on other security-related priorities.
In an interview with our colleague Mike Blanchfield, Trump's new Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA said Canada could be in a 'good spot' if it can get to 2 percent before 2030. Canadian Prime Minister MARK CARNEY is 'in a better position, but he is going to have to recognize that on June 30, NATO and [Secretary of State MARCO] RUBIO and the president may come back to him and say, 'Oh, well, it'll happen before that.''
PROMOTIONS BLOWBACK: Rank-and-file diplomats are up in arms over proposed plans by the Trump administration to shake up how promotion processes work this week, according to internal documents and interviews with five current and former senior U.S. diplomats who spoke to your lead NatSec Daily author and our own Nahal Toosi.
Internal promotion processes are wonky, but diplomats say they are an important institutional part of promoting career diplomats, including ambassadors who will serve at the frontlines of U.S. policies to counter China and Russia abroad.
The changes include installing a 'jury duty' system for people to serve on the boards instead of asking for volunteers, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The boards also will meet virtually instead of in-person, which department officials say will save taxpayer dollars on travel for diplomats involved. The changes take effect next month.
The shake-up also underscores how far Trump appointees are going to root out any semblance of diversity, equity and inclusion policies from the diplomatic corps. Some of the diplomats say this was a driving factor for LEW OLOWSKI, the top official in the Bureau of Global Talent Management, to shake up promotion boards. (As loyal NatSec Daily readers will recall, Olowski's promotion to the top HR job in the State Department angered some officials who charged he did not meet the qualifications for the post.) Some officials sharply disputed that the promotion boards were affected by DEI policies.
When approached for comment, the State Department said in a statement that it is adjusting the Foreign Service Selection Boards processes to 'reduce costs and increase the integrity of the process.'
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
Today, we're featuring BRAD BOWMAN, senior director at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. Teetotalers rejoice: Bowman, a U.S. Army veteran who served as a senior staffer on military and national security policy to Republican senators, is a paragon of healthy living if we're judging him by his drink choice.
'If you are looking for an exotic cocktail, you came to the wrong guy,' Brad said. (To the contrary Brad, we love hearing about drinks of choice from all natsec wonks, regardless of whether they fall on a cocktail menu or not.)
Brad's pick: 'I typically go for a ginormous glass of cold 1 percent lactose-free milk,' he said. What better way to build strong bones? And if not that? 'If I am feeling really saucy, need a break from troubling headlines, or celebrating something with the family, I go for a Martinelli's Sparkling Cider on the rocks,' he said. 'Très chic, I know.'
Well, Brad, chic is in the eye of the beholder. So cheers to you!
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Keystrokes
PULLING PUNCHES: U.S. Cyber Command paused offensive operations aimed at Russia for one day this year as a negotiating tactic, House Armed Services cyber subcommittee Chair DON BACON (R-Neb.) said today.
As our own Maggie Miller reports (for Pros!), during a subcommittee hearing on the Pentagon's cyber posture, Bacon confirmed reports in late February that Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH directed Cyber Command to stand down from planning on all matters regarding Russia, including offensive actions. This is significant because the Pentagon denied those reports at the time.
The report sparked confusion and fury among Democratic lawmakers and European leaders, who viewed the move as a capitulation toward Russia during a time of tense negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Pentagon at the time denied that any stand-down order was made.
'I dug into this whole matter,' Bacon said. 'There was a one-day pause, which is typical for negotiations, that's about as much as I can say, a one-day pause.'
Spokespeople for the Pentagon and Cyber Command did not immediately respond to Maggie's requests for comment on Bacon's claim.
The Complex
ABOUT THOSE TUBERVILLE HOLDS: A government watchdog report has found that Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE's prolonged blockade of senior military promotions affected military families, officer pay and leadership changes — but did not affect military readiness among rank-and-file troops, as our own Joe Gould reports for Morning Defense (for Pros!).
Tuberville's nearly yearlong hold — a protest of the Biden administration's abortion travel policy —ensnared 447 officers up for promotions for one- to four-star ranks and drew bipartisan condemnation. The sweeping hold was a largely unprecedented move that dragged U.S. military ranks into the domestic dispute over abortion policies. Pentagon officials argued it would hurt national security; Tuberville argued it wouldn't.
The GAO report released late Thursday, which doesn't name Tuberville explicitly, found no impact on unit-level readiness citing reports in 2023 and part of 2024, offering a final coda to the bitter political battle that occupied a major chapter of the Biden-era Pentagon. 'Our analysis did not find challenges to readiness — the ability to meet missions,' the report states.
Broadsides
BRINK SPEAKS OUT: Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK is speaking out for the first time on why she resigned from her post in a scathing op-ed today for the Detroit Free Press.
Brink, a career diplomat who served five U.S. Republican and Democratic presidents, rebuked Trump's pressure on Ukraine amid his negotiations to end the ongoing Russian invasion.
'I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity,' she wrote in the op-ed. 'I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement.'
'And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering,' she added.
Transitions
— SOFIA CHAVEZ is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as media relations manager for external relations. She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.).
What to Read
— Derek Own and R.M. Schneiderman, POLITICO: 'We've Got a F--king Spy in This Place': Inside America's Greatest Espionage Mystery
— Mike Blanchfield, POLITICO: Mark Carney mixes faith and foreign affairs in Rome
— Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy Magazine: Latin American Economies Look to China as U.S. Slashes Aid
Monday Today
— Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: U.S.-Latvia Resilience Conference
— Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The Rt. Hon. Sir IAIN DUNCAN SMITH MP on How the West Can Overcome the Totalitarian Axis
Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who should bow to our military pressure to give up their illicit nuclear program.