Latest news with #FoundationforDefenseofDemocracies
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's gamble in normalizing relations with Syria in the face of Iran: ‘high-risk, high-reward'
President Donald Trump last week announced he would normalize U.S. relations with Syria by lifting decades-old sanctions, and he became the first American president to meet with the leader of the Middle Eastern nation in 25 years – a move that some have seen as an indirect hit on Iran. The news was a surprising shift from Trump's prior position in which he said in a December post that "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT." Trump's change of posture is a gamble that could see serious gains regarding regional stability and securing U.S. interests by deterring Iranian influence, explained Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Us Ambassador Barrack Named Special Envoy To Syria Amid Sanctions Relief Plan "This is what I call a high-risk, high-reward gamble, but one that, if achieved successfully, can actually prevent Syria from being a launching pad for more Iranian malign activity," Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. "But if it fails, . . . Washington would have ended up empowering a jihadist government in Damascus [that] does not have full control over its own territory." The December collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime following the takeover by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, not only signified an end to a decades-long oppressive regime, it also effectively dismantled years of Iranian investment in a major setback to its regional influence. Read On The Fox News App Trump emphasized that this sanctions relief, which he argued will give the country a chance to recover and was soon followed by an EU order to lift sanctions, is a move to encourage Syria to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel. But Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is also the leader of HTS, which is still a designated terrorist group under the U.S. and the UN, has not officially agreed to pursue diplomatic ties with Jerusalem – a push several Middle Eastern nations have flatly rejected amid its aggressive military operations in the Gaza Strip. Trump also emphasized that the new Syrian government needs to suppress the rise of Islamic extremist groups, which Ben Taleblu pointed out is going to be one of the nation's chief vulnerabilities as it looks to completely re-establish itself in the world order as trade, business and diplomacy have been reopened to Damascus. Iran's Khamenei Launches Blistering Attack On Trump After Middle East Visit "Tehran traditionally responds to these sorts of things with patience. The Islamic Republic has an ideological view of the way the region should be oriented, and has put time, money, resources, blood and treasure towards that," Ben Taleblu said. The Iran-expert explained that Tehran is waiting for the U.S. and Israel to loosen its pressure on the regime and its proxies, "and for Washington and Jerusalem to make mistakes in the region as they try to push towards bigger-picture things – like flipping Syria or regional peace and stability." "And it is there that in the interim, while Washington focuses up on building up states that Tehran will focus on building up proxies and partners," he added. Syria is not a united nation as conflict persists across the country between varying minority groups, former regime loyalists and terrorist organizations like ISIS. Secretary of State Macro Rubio also warned lawmakers on Tuesday that Syria could be just "weeks" away from a "potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions." These fractures pose a significant vulnerability for the new Syrian government. "Whenever there is a downtrodden or dispossessed person in a war zone or in a conflict zone, that is Tehran's angle of entry back into a conflict," Ben Taleblu said. "This has been Iran's strategy, sitting and waiting and looking to exploit opportunities across the entire northern tier of the Middle East, from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. "Exploiting disarray is a specialty of the Islamic Republic," he warned. The expert explained that if the Trump administration wants to ensure that Iran is unable to exploit vulnerable populations in Syria, then it will need to press Damascus to address the sweeping concerns facing various groups across the country. Though the president, and his constituents, notoriously opposed nation-building, which could spell trouble for the long-term security of Syria as it sits in Iran's shadow. "Tehran is going to be playing the long game. It's going to be running the clock when it comes to American and Israeli patience for what the future regional order could look like," Ben Taleblu article source: Trump's gamble in normalizing relations with Syria in the face of Iran: 'high-risk, high-reward'
The Star
18-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
Taiwan more likely to face blockade or economic warfare from Beijing than invasion: panel
Beijing is more likely to carry out a blockade or economic warfare against Taiwan rather than an invasion, witnesses and lawmakers said at a congressional hearing on Thursday, even as they urged the US to prepare for all scenarios. 'The most likely scenario is they're going to try this cyber-enabled economic warfare campaign,' said Mark Montgomery, a retired US rear admiral and senior director at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, testifying before the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. 'Beijing will want to force Taiwan's capitulation through less drastic methods' than a military takeover, he added. Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. As for what such a campaign would entail, Montgomery believed it would target Taiwan's financial, energy and telecommunications sectors, and involve 'malicious' cyber activity. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arming it. In recent years, the US has grown increasingly anxious about a mainland takeover, with officials and lawmakers eyeing 2027 as a possible window, and pointing to more frequent People's Liberation Army sorties crossing the Taiwan Strait's median line as signs of growing aggression. Nevertheless, some at Thursday's hearing said that increased PLA activity did not necessarily indicate an imminent or likely invasion. 'While these air crossings happen almost daily, making invasion seem possible, a more likely scenario is a CCP-led blockade of the island,' said Raja Krishnamoorthi, an Illinois Democrat and the committee's ranking member. Taiwan should stockpile commodities like natural gas, soy and corn as a way to deter such a blockade, the congressman added. And even if a mainland invasion was not likely, the US still needed to prepare for it, witnesses said. Beijing's 'goal would be to subjugate Taiwan without invading', said Charles Flynn, a retired US army general, but 'we cannot discount the threat that they pose by what they do with their air, maritime and ground forces'. Flynn, who served as commander of US Army Pacific from 2021 to 2024, warned on Thursday that the US must bolster its land-based military capabilities in case it needed to support the self-governed island militarily. 'For far too long, we've invested in exquisite systems to fight a sea and air campaign but left ourselves exposed where it matters most: on land where wars are won or lost,' he said. Meanwhile, Kurt Campbell, deputy secretary of state under former US president Joe Biden, testified that Washington should invest more in its naval capabilities to deter any aggression from Beijing. 'This is a naval theatre,' Campbell said, adding that America's answer to a potential mainland blockade of Taiwan would be its submarine force. More from South China Morning Post: For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2025.
Politico
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Avoiding a JCPOA revival
Presented by With help from Nahal Toosi, Giselle Ewing and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric If there's a new Iran deal on the table, Republicans are really hoping it's not the same as the old Iran deal. President DONALD TRUMP's administration said it has handed Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal in part of its monthslong bid to negotiate on Tehran dismantling its nuclear program. Iran's foreign minister, ABBAS ARAGHCHI, said it hasn't received any written proposal yet and called the Trump administration's stances 'confusing and contradictory.' The pressure is building for Trump's team to demonstrate that its deal won't reprise the Obama-era nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, that Republicans widely panned. Publicly, top Trump officials, including his special envoy STEVE WITKOFF, say they won't sign onto any agreement that would allow Iran to enrich uranium. But privately, Trump's team is looking to make a deal and is flexible on the question of whether Tehran could enrich at low levels, according to two European officials and a former Trump administration official, all granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions. 'Trump has been led to believe that low level enrichment isn't a threat – this is the compromise JOHN KERRY made in the JCPOA,' the former Trump administration official said, referring to Obama's former secretary of State who helped negotiate the JCPOA. Asked about the Trump team's position on enrichment, a Witkoff spokesperson pointed to his remarks last week in an interview with Breitbart, where he definitively said no. When leaving the deal in 2018, Trump criticized the accord for allowing 'Iran to continue enriching uranium and, over time, reach the brink of a nuclear breakout.' Every Republican senator except Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) sent a letter to Trump this week urging him not to back an agreement that allows any uranium enrichment. MARK DUBOWITZ, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a fierce critic of Iran's regime, told NatSec Daily that Iran will want to preserve its enrichment capabilities in any deal, which could scuttle the negotiations or leave Trump to sell a deal to a Republicans who have indicated they oppose it. Iran, for its part, has said it will agree to something close to the JCPOA, under which Iran agreed to strict nuclear curbs that expired over time in exchange for sanctions relief. ALI SHAMKHANI, a top adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI, told NBC this week that Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, eliminating stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, enriching uranium only to lower levels needed for civilian use and allowing international inspectors to supervise it in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions on Iran. In addition to enrichment, another key Republican criticism of the Obama-era deal was that it did not cover non-nuclear issues with Iran, such as its missile program. 'It has to at least focus on the missiles too, … and I haven't heard anyone who wants to talk about that,' the former Trump official said. The Inbox FACE TO FACE: After months of impasse on peace talks, Trump is saying it's time for him to meet with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. 'I think it's time for us to just do it,' he told reporters as he wrapped up his trip to the Middle East today. 'We've got to get it done,' he said of talks to bring an end to the war in Ukraine, which has been raging for three years since Russia first launched its unprovoked, full-scale invasion in 2022. When asked when he would meet with Putin, Trump said: 'As soon as we can set it up.' Trump's comments came after Ukrainian and Russian officials met for talks in Turkey this week. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY had challenged Putin to show up in Turkey for talks and said he'd meet with him if he did. Putin didn't show up, instead sending lower-level technocrats. Those talks — the first direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in three years — didn't yield any major breakthroughs. But both sides agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, as our colleague Veronika Melkozerova reports from Kyiv. SPENDING PRESSURES: As the Trump administration pushes NATO allies to boost defense spending to 5 percent ahead of a major alliance summit this summer, Canada could find itself in the MAGA crosshairs… again. Canada, already grappling with less-than-stellar relations with Trump, is one of eight allies that lags behind on the current NATO benchmark of spending 2 percent on defense. (It's at 1.37 percent, though the Canadian government has outlined plans to hit that target by 2030.) The United States spends around 3.4 percent of its GDP on defense. Under a new proposal from NATO, allies would be asked to spend 3.5 percent of GDP on defense and 1.5 percent on other security-related priorities. In an interview with our colleague Mike Blanchfield, Trump's new Ambassador to Canada PETE HOEKSTRA said Canada could be in a 'good spot' if it can get to 2 percent before 2030. Canadian Prime Minister MARK CARNEY is 'in a better position, but he is going to have to recognize that on June 30, NATO and [Secretary of State MARCO] RUBIO and the president may come back to him and say, 'Oh, well, it'll happen before that.'' PROMOTIONS BLOWBACK: Rank-and-file diplomats are up in arms over proposed plans by the Trump administration to shake up how promotion processes work this week, according to internal documents and interviews with five current and former senior U.S. diplomats who spoke to your lead NatSec Daily author and our own Nahal Toosi. Internal promotion processes are wonky, but diplomats say they are an important institutional part of promoting career diplomats, including ambassadors who will serve at the frontlines of U.S. policies to counter China and Russia abroad. The changes include installing a 'jury duty' system for people to serve on the boards instead of asking for volunteers, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The boards also will meet virtually instead of in-person, which department officials say will save taxpayer dollars on travel for diplomats involved. The changes take effect next month. The shake-up also underscores how far Trump appointees are going to root out any semblance of diversity, equity and inclusion policies from the diplomatic corps. Some of the diplomats say this was a driving factor for LEW OLOWSKI, the top official in the Bureau of Global Talent Management, to shake up promotion boards. (As loyal NatSec Daily readers will recall, Olowski's promotion to the top HR job in the State Department angered some officials who charged he did not meet the qualifications for the post.) Some officials sharply disputed that the promotion boards were affected by DEI policies. When approached for comment, the State Department said in a statement that it is adjusting the Foreign Service Selection Boards processes to 'reduce costs and increase the integrity of the process.' DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring BRAD BOWMAN, senior director at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. Teetotalers rejoice: Bowman, a U.S. Army veteran who served as a senior staffer on military and national security policy to Republican senators, is a paragon of healthy living if we're judging him by his drink choice. 'If you are looking for an exotic cocktail, you came to the wrong guy,' Brad said. (To the contrary Brad, we love hearing about drinks of choice from all natsec wonks, regardless of whether they fall on a cocktail menu or not.) Brad's pick: 'I typically go for a ginormous glass of cold 1 percent lactose-free milk,' he said. What better way to build strong bones? And if not that? 'If I am feeling really saucy, need a break from troubling headlines, or celebrating something with the family, I go for a Martinelli's Sparkling Cider on the rocks,' he said. 'Très chic, I know.' Well, Brad, chic is in the eye of the beholder. So cheers to you! IT'S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@ and ebazail@ and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @felschwartz, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130 and @delizanickel Keystrokes PULLING PUNCHES: U.S. Cyber Command paused offensive operations aimed at Russia for one day this year as a negotiating tactic, House Armed Services cyber subcommittee Chair DON BACON (R-Neb.) said today. As our own Maggie Miller reports (for Pros!), during a subcommittee hearing on the Pentagon's cyber posture, Bacon confirmed reports in late February that Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH directed Cyber Command to stand down from planning on all matters regarding Russia, including offensive actions. This is significant because the Pentagon denied those reports at the time. The report sparked confusion and fury among Democratic lawmakers and European leaders, who viewed the move as a capitulation toward Russia during a time of tense negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Pentagon at the time denied that any stand-down order was made. 'I dug into this whole matter,' Bacon said. 'There was a one-day pause, which is typical for negotiations, that's about as much as I can say, a one-day pause.' Spokespeople for the Pentagon and Cyber Command did not immediately respond to Maggie's requests for comment on Bacon's claim. The Complex ABOUT THOSE TUBERVILLE HOLDS: A government watchdog report has found that Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE's prolonged blockade of senior military promotions affected military families, officer pay and leadership changes — but did not affect military readiness among rank-and-file troops, as our own Joe Gould reports for Morning Defense (for Pros!). Tuberville's nearly yearlong hold — a protest of the Biden administration's abortion travel policy —ensnared 447 officers up for promotions for one- to four-star ranks and drew bipartisan condemnation. The sweeping hold was a largely unprecedented move that dragged U.S. military ranks into the domestic dispute over abortion policies. Pentagon officials argued it would hurt national security; Tuberville argued it wouldn't. The GAO report released late Thursday, which doesn't name Tuberville explicitly, found no impact on unit-level readiness citing reports in 2023 and part of 2024, offering a final coda to the bitter political battle that occupied a major chapter of the Biden-era Pentagon. 'Our analysis did not find challenges to readiness — the ability to meet missions,' the report states. Broadsides BRINK SPEAKS OUT: Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine BRIDGET BRINK is speaking out for the first time on why she resigned from her post in a scathing op-ed today for the Detroit Free Press. Brink, a career diplomat who served five U.S. Republican and Democratic presidents, rebuked Trump's pressure on Ukraine amid his negotiations to end the ongoing Russian invasion. 'I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity,' she wrote in the op-ed. 'I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement.' 'And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering,' she added. Transitions — SOFIA CHAVEZ is joining the Center for Strategic and International Studies as media relations manager for external relations. She previously was deputy press secretary for Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.). What to Read — Derek Own and R.M. Schneiderman, POLITICO: 'We've Got a F--king Spy in This Place': Inside America's Greatest Espionage Mystery — Mike Blanchfield, POLITICO: Mark Carney mixes faith and foreign affairs in Rome — Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy Magazine: Latin American Economies Look to China as U.S. Slashes Aid Monday Today — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: U.S.-Latvia Resilience Conference — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The Rt. Hon. Sir IAIN DUNCAN SMITH MP on How the West Can Overcome the Totalitarian Axis Thanks to our editors, Heidi Vogt and Emily Lussier, who should bow to our military pressure to give up their illicit nuclear program.
Epoch Times
10-05-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
China's Cyber Economic Warfare
Commentary Imagine what would happen if the lights suddenly went out in Taiwan. Its economy would grind to a halt. Food supplies would rot without refrigeration. Infrastructure systems wouldn't function. Hospital patients would perish as vital machines shutdown. The island nation would essentially be decimated—not from bombs or missiles, but from of cyberattacks and supply disruptions. That's the scenario Admiral Mark Montgomery laid out for me in Admiral Montgomery is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He's a seasoned national security expert with extensive experience in cybersecurity and defense policy. His insights on China's growing cyber capabilities are both timely and important. We had a remarkable conversation. As Admiral Montgomery said on the He described just how vulnerable Taiwan really is. About half of its electricity comes from liquefied natural gas—and the island has only a few days' worth of reserves. If China declared a missile closure zone near Taiwan's main LNG port or used diplomatic pressure to halt shipments, the country could lose power in less than a week. Layer in cyberattacks on banks, energy systems, and communications networks, and it would become a full-scale campaign. Related Stories 5/6/2025 5/3/2025 What's even more alarming is that China has already begun targeting U.S. infrastructure. Operation Volt Typhoon was a Chinese campaign involving malware inserted into critical American systems in Guam, Hawaii, and possibly the West Coast. As Admiral Montgomery told me, 'If they had done this with backpacks and explosives, we'd be at war. But in cyberspace, we gave them a hat tip.' He believes that the U.S. needs to be far more assertive in cyberspace. This doesn't necessarily mean launching cyberattacks, but it does mean showing that we can. 'Deterrence by demonstration' is the phrase he used. Proving that we have capable, effective responses to such attacks can potentially be enough to deter escalation. We also discussed Taiwan's role in the global tech economy. Around 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductor chips are manufactured in Taiwan. This kind of concentration makes Taiwan a critical asset—not just for the U.S., but for Europe, Asia, and beyond. As Admiral Montgomery said, Taiwan didn't plan it that way, but it now finds itself at the center of global supply chains and strategy. China isn't solely focused on Taiwan. Its navy is expanding rapidly. China's cyber tools are becoming more sophisticated, and its ambitions are growing. However, there are reasons to be encouraged. Admiral Montgomery said countries such as Japan, Australia, and the Philippines are stepping up to the plate. Taiwan is making serious investments in its own defense. And here in the U.S., we're finally starting to recognize the scale of this challenge. As Admiral Montgomery told me, China's goal isn't to fight and win—it's to win without fighting at all. If we want to prevent this outcome, we need to be ready—economically, digitally, and militarily—to counter China's Cyber Economic Warfare. From Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Economic Times
10-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
As US, China begin trade talks in Geneva, Trump's tariff hammer looks less mighty than he claims
The way President Donald Trump sees it, beating China in a trade war should be easy. After all, his logic goes, the Chinese sell Americans three times as much stuff as Americans sell them. Therefore, they have more to lose. Inflict enough pain, like the combined 145% taxes he slapped on Chinese imports last month, and they'll beg for mercy. Trump's treasury secretary, Scott Bessent has confidently compared Beijing to a card player stuck with a losing hand. "They're playing with a pair of twos,'' he said. Somebody forgot to tell China. So far, the Chinese have refused to fold under the pressure of Trump's massive tariffs. Instead, they have retaliated with triple-digit tariffs of their own. "All bullies are just paper tigers,'' the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared in a video last week. "Kneeling only invites more bullying.'' The stakes are high between the world's two biggest economies whose trade topped $660 billion last year. Bessent and Trump's top trade negotiator, Jamieson Greer, are heading to Geneva this weekend for initial trade talks with top Chinese officials. Trump suggested Friday that the U.S. could lower its tariffs on China, saying in a Truth Social post that "80% Tariff seems right! Up to Scott.? While businesses and investors welcome any easing of tensions, the prospects for a quick and significant breakthrough appear dim. "These are talks about talks, and China may be coming to assess what's on the table - or even just to buy time," said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "There's no shared roadmap or clear pathway to de-escalation." But if the two countries eventually agree to scale back the massive taxes - tariffs - they have slapped on each other's goods, it would relieve world financial markets and companies on both sides of the Pacific Ocean that depend on US-China trade. "The companies involved in this trade on both sides just cannot afford waiting anymore," said economist John Gong of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. In a worst-case scenario, China could walk away from the negotiations if it feels the US side isn't treating China as an equal or isn't willing to take the first step to deescalate, Gong said. "I think if (Bessent) doesn't go into this negotiation with this kind of mindset, this could be very difficult," he said. For now, the two countries can't even agree on who requested the talks. "The meeting is being held at the request of the U.S. side,'' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Wednesday. Trump disagreed. "They ought to go back and study their files," he said. What seems clear is that Trump's favorite economic weapon - import taxes, or tariffs - has not proved as mighty as he'd hoped. "For Trump, what's happened here is that the rhetoric of his campaign has finally had to face economic reality," said Jeff Moon, a trade official in the Obama administration who now runs the China Moon Strategies consultancy. "The idea that he was going to bring China to its knees in terms of tariffs was never going to work.'' Trump views tariffs an all-purpose economic tool that can raise money for the US Treasury, protect American industries, lure factories to the United States and pressure other countries to bend to his will, even on issues such as immigration and drug trafficking. He used tariffs in his first term and has been even more aggressive and unpredictable about imposing them in his second. He's slapped a 10% tariff on almost every country in the world, blowing up the rules that had governed global trade for decades. But it's his trade war with China that has really put markets and businesses on edge. It started in February when he announced a 10% levy on Chinese imports. By April, Trump ratcheted up the taxes on China to a staggering 145%. Beijing upped its tariff on American products to 125%. Trump's escalation sent financial markets tumbling and left U.S. retailers warning that they might run out of goods as U.S.-China trade implodes. U.S. consumers, worried about the prospect of empty shelves and higher prices, are losing confidence in the economy. "This was not very well planned,'' said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow in China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "I don't think he intended to have the tariffs escalate into this chaos.'' When Trump hit Chinese imports with tariffs during his first term, he charged that Beijing used unfair tactics, including cybertheft, to give its technology firms an edge. The two countries reached a truce - the so-called Phase One agreement - in January 2020; China agreed to buy more U.S. products, and Trump held off on even higher tariffs. But they didn't resolve the big issues dividing them, including China's subsidies of homegrown tech firms. China was ready for a rematch when Trump returned to the White House. It had worked to reduce its dependence on America's massive market, cutting the U.S. share of its exports to 15% last year from more than 19% in 2018, according to Dexter Roberts of the Atlantic Council. Beijing is confident that the Chinese people are more willing than Americans to endure the fallout from a trade war, including falling exports and shuttered factories. "For China, it's painful, but it's also imperative to withstand it, and it's prepared to cope with it,'' said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. In addition to miscalculating Chinese resolve, the Trump administration may have underestimated how much America relies on China. For decades, Americans have come to depend on Chinese factories. They produce 97% of America's imported baby carriages, 96% of its artificial flowers and umbrellas, 95% of its fireworks, 93% of its children's coloring books and 90% of its combs. "Without us, what do they have to sell?" Chinese toymaker Cheng Zhengren told Beijing News. "Their shelves would be empty." The showerhead company Afina last month reported on an experiment suggesting that American consumers have little willingness to pay more for American-made products. Afina makes a filtered showerhead in China and Vietnam that retails for $129. Making the same product in America would lift the price to $239. When customers on the company's website were given a choice between them, 584 chose the cheap Asian one; not one opted for the costlier U.S.-made version. And it's not just consumers who depend on China. America's own factories do, too. The National Association of Manufacturers calculates 47% of U.S. imports from China in 2023 were "manufacturing inputs'' - industrial supplies, auto parts and capital equipment that American manufacturers used to make other their own products domestically. So Trump's tariffs risk raising costs and reducing supplies that U.S. factories rely on, making them less competitive. Louise Loo, China economist at Oxford Economics, a consulting firm, said that China's ability to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market in recent years means "they're probably likely to be able to find substitutes for buyers, much easier than the U.S. side will be able to find suppliers." Still, China won't emerge from a trade war unscathed either. Citing the impact of the trade war, the International Monetary Fund last month downgraded the outlook for the Chinese economy this year and next. "China needs the United States of America," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at Friday's news briefing. "They need our markets. They need our consumer base. And Secretary Bessent knows that he's going to Switzerland this weekend with the full support and confidence and trust of the president here at home." Indeed Moon, who also served as a diplomat in China, noted the tariffs cut both ways: "Both of them are highly dependent on bilateral trade. They have put themselves in a corner.'' Jens Eskelund, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, expressed relief that U.S. and Chinese officials were meeting. "So good,'' he said, pointing to the Vatican conclave that just picked a new pope as inspiration. "Lock them in a room and then hopefully white smoke will come out."
