NATO's ‘Take Five' moment

Politico

3 days ago

With help from Joe Gould, Diya Contractor and Daniel Lippman
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NatSec Daily readers, Robbie here with a special note: After 150 newsletters, today is my last day helming the newsletter as I leave POLITICO for a new adventure. I've loved geeking out over all things natsec with our readers, so this is a bittersweet farewell for me! Fret not, however. Eric will be around as an interim anchor, working with the rest of the global security squad to bring you the freshest news of the day.
Without further ado, let's get into it one last time. — Robbie
NATO allies nervous about President DONALD TRUMP's commitment to Europe think they've found a magic formula to placate him. The magic number is five.
Alliance chief MARK RUTTE has put forward a plan to get allies to spend 5 percent of GDP on their defense — drastically boosting the previous NATO benchmark of allies spending 2 percent on defense. Top Trump administration officials have pushed this spending level aggressively.
But the plan also includes some workarounds (cynics might call them accounting tricks) to hit that 5 percent goal. That includes spending 3.5 percent on hard defense — think artillery, fighter jets, guns, etc. — and 1.5 percent on defense-adjacent funding, such as cybersecurity or military mobility infrastructure. One example: Ensure highway bridges are built to withstand tanks rolling across them in case an emergency deployment is needed.
Defense spending has long been a sore spot in U.S.-NATO relations. But it's taken on a new urgency with Trump's reelection and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Russia has transformed into a full-fledged wartime economy. And Europe is racing to rearm as allies on the eastern flank warn that Moscow could encroach on NATO territory if it is successful in Ukraine.
The 5 percent target will feature prominently in an upcoming NATO summit of alliance leaders at The Hague later this month. European defense officials privately say they hope the ambitious plan will placate Trump and show him that European allies are serious about taking charge of their defenses — at a time when they worry any public blow-ups with the U.S. president could signal discord within the alliance to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN.
Current and former U.S. officials are cheering the move by the Trump administration to push for more defense spending. But they also question whether Europe can achieve those ambitions on an accelerated timeline that matters for European security, particularly as Russia shows no signs of letting up in its bombardment of Ukraine. (Twenty-three of NATO's 32 allies are on track to hit 2 percent defense spending by this summer.)
'I like the idea of allies committing to 3.5, but given that around a third of the allies don't even meet 2 percent yet, my question is how long will it take these countries to actually get there?' said JULIANNE SMITH, who served as U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Biden administration.
Trump's ambassador to NATO, MATTHEW WHITAKER, addressed these concerns today, as our colleagues Laura Kayali and Jacopo Barigazzi report. 'Let me be clear on this, we cannot have another Wales pledge style where a lot of allies don't meet their commitments until year 10 or year 11,' Whitaker told reporters, referring to the 2014 decision at a NATO summit in Wales to set the 2 percent goal.
'Some allies may try and pull a fast one and put some items on the list that aren't quite defense adjacent, so we're just gonna have to do some very strict monitoring of this,' Smith said of the plan to add the 1.5 percent of spending to the tally. That includes ensuring allies don't retroactively 'count things they're already spending money on,' Smith said.
So far, 14 NATO countries have publicly backed the 5 percent target. The United States is currently at 3.4 percent but prominent Republican lawmakers want to significantly boost U.S. defense spending further.
The Inbox
TRUMP'S HOTLINE BLING: Trump said he had a 'good conversation' with Putin over the phone today, as Cheyanne Daniels and our own Amy Mackinnon and Felicia Schwartz report. But Trump acknowledged that peace between Ukraine and Russia is not on the horizon.
Trump claimed Putin vowed to respond to Ukraine's drone attacks over the weekend and that the call was 'not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace.'
Iran also came up, and it seems like Putin wants to play peacemaker between Washington and Tehran. Trump wrote on Truth Social that Putin 'suggested that he will participate in the discussion with Iran and that he could, perhaps, be helpful in getting this brought to a rapid conclusion.'
IRAN NUCLEAR WOES: Speaking of Iran, Iranian Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI today rejected a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal that would see Tehran gradually reduce its enrichment of uranium over time, per The Wall Street Journal's Benoit Faucon, Laurence Norman and Alex Ward.
'To the American side and others we say: Why are you interfering and trying to say whether Iran should have uranium enrichment or not? That's none of your business,' Khamenei said on X.
The comments from Khamenei are a major blow to U.S. negotiators hoping Iran would cede enrichment capabilities for its civilian nuclear program. The U.S. has said it will not accept any deal that allows Iran to enrich its own uranium, meaning it may need to shift its expectations in negotiations.
TROUBLE BREWS FOR BIBI: A far-right Israeli political party in Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU's coalition is threatening to launch a vote of no confidence that could prompt snap elections in the country.
Reuters' Alexander Cornwell reports that the United Torah Judaism Party, an ultra-Orthodox party which holds seven seats in Netanyahu's coalition, is threatening to walk away from the government as Netanyahu mulls whether to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel from mandatory military conscription. The party's departure would put intense pressure on Netanyahu's coalition, which currently only has an eight-seat majority in the country's parliament. That could invite an opposition-led vote to dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections.
The move comes at an especially delicate time in Israel, as Israelis across the political spectrum have soured on the country's conduct of the war in the Gaza Strip, as well as the government's failure to bring back the remaining hostages held by Hamas.
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink.
We know it's Wednesday. But with Robbie leaving our team, we wanted to take a moment to raise a glass to him. Robbie said he'll be celebrating his run on your favorite newsletter by drinking happy hour Tecate tallboys (topped with a lime slice, of course) in honor of the warming weather.
'I need to drown my sorrows somehow, and I'll be doing it on a budget,' he said, tossing tissues over his desk toward Eric. Robbie has vowed to continue voraciously reading NatSec Daily after leaving the POLITICO family, and shake his fist in rage when Eric and the all-star natsec team scoop him in future reporting.
In lieu of flowers, Eric asks that you send him tips about U.S.-Latin America policy.
Cheers, Robbie! We'll miss you.
IT'S WEDNESDAY — AND THE END OF THE ROBBIE ERA: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [e-mail], and follow Eric on X @ebazaileimil.
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The Complex
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — THE QUAD GOES INTERSTELLAR? A bipartisan duo of senators is pushing for the Quad alliance to look to the final frontier as a place for greater security cooperation.
Sens. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) and KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) are teaming up to introduce the Quad Space Act, which would strengthen space cooperation between the U.S., Australia, Japan and India. It also directs the secretary of Defense to cultivate partnerships with allies to promote space situational awareness and space industrial, among other priorities.
The bill has decent odds of becoming law. The Trump administration has embraced the Quad alliance since taking office and has taken steps to boost its space policy capabilities.
AND FOR ALL YOU SPACE NERDS: We have stellar news to share (no, we're not sorry for that pun.) Our very own Sam Skove is launching a newsletter covering all things space (for Pros!). The inaugural version is out this Friday and you won't want to miss Sam's sharp analysis of astrospace politics — down to the policy, power plays and people moves at the heart of America's new intergalactic ambitions. Don't forget to sign up, and read more about it here.
On the Hill
YERMAK MEETS WITH LAWMAKERS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY's top aide, ANDRIY YERMAK, met with a bipartisan swath of lawmakers on Capitol Hill this week, offering insight into Russian war crimes and battlefield dynamics.
At a closed-door session Wednesday, the presentation included battlefield maps, drone footage of recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian air bases and personal accounts of child abductions, according to lawmakers involved. The Ukrainians also laid out how little ground Russia had seized for the 'tremendous casualties' they had incurred, as well as the 'potential for additional gains' in the war.
Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.), who with Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM arranged the session, called it 'very powerful' and said there were roughly 25 senators in attendance from both parties.
DRUG BUST: The House Intelligence Committee is standing up a new task force focused on stopping the growing threat of transnational criminal gangs, our own John Sakellariadis writes in.
The bipartisan Cartel Task Force will work to bolster the intelligence community's ability to stop cartels that funnel narcotics and other illicit material into the U.S., committee leads Reps. RICK CRAWFORD (R-Ark.) and JIM HIMES (D-Conn.) said in a press release today.
The move comes just a few months after the intelligence community put transnational organized crime first in its annual compendium of global threats to Americans.
'The United States cannot allow Mexico, our neighbor and largest trading partner, to devolve into a failed narco-state run by violent cartels,' Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Tex.), who is set to helm the task force, said in the press release.
Alongside Crenshaw, the five-member panel includes Democratic Reps. JASON CROW of Colorado and CHRISSY HOULAHAN of Pennsylvania and Republican Reps. DARIN LaHOOD of Illinois and BRIAN FITZPATRICK of Pennsylvania.
Broadsides
HOLY ROLLING ON AI: POPE LEO XIV is looking to position the Vatican as a key voice on the future of AI, at a time when the technology seems poised to disrupt most aspects of society.
Per our European colleague Hannah Roberts, the newly minted Bishop of Rome has continually expressed his worries that AI could seriously erode 'human dignity, justice and labor.' The Pope has already been the subject of a litany of deepfake videos, highlighting how the emerging technology could be used to spread falsehoods online.
Vatican AI adviser and Franciscan friar PAOLO BENANTI told POLITICO that the Catholic Church's role as 'an expert in humanity' could galvanize leaders, particularly those of Catholic countries, 'to create an AI that cares for man and is aligned with social justice.'
Transitions
— SOPHIA KIM, a former spokesperson for the New York State Department of Financial Services and the U.S. Small Business Administration, has joined the Council on Foreign Relations as director of media relations and communications strategy. Kim also worked for SKDK.
— JEFFREY GOETTMAN, former executive vice president and CEO of the Export-Import Bank, was tapped to serve as deputy U.S. trade representative. His portfolio will include Africa, the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, labor, the environment and industrial competitiveness.
— Former Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN launched a new advisory firm, Clarion Strategies, alongside Smith, the former U.S. NATO Ambassador and former Pentagon legislative affairs chief RHEANNE WIRKKALA. Also joining are former Veterans Affairs Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH as a principal, with ELY RATNER and LINDSEY FORD advising part-time.
— CLARA GILLISPIE has joined the Council on Foreign Relations' David Rockefeller Studies Program as senior fellow for climate and energy. Gillispie most recently served as a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research.
What to Read
— Lara Jakes, The New York Times: Drone Attacks Are the New Front in War. NATO Is Trying to Catch Up.
— Max Stier, The Washington Post: What Marco Rubio's multitude of jobs means for America
— Ken Moritsugu and Kanis Leung, Associated Press: A quiet Tiananmen Square anniversary shows China's ability to suppress history
Tomorrow Today
— Asia Society Policy Institute, 8 a.m.: Political reset? Implications of the South Korea election for the alliance and the region.
— Atlantic Council's Europe Center, 9 a.m.: Poland's strategic partnerships in a changing world - new roads and old ties'
— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The Posture of the Department of the Army in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026
— U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: Dominance by design: China shock 2.0 and the supply chain chokepoints eroding U.S. security
— Middle East Institute, 9:30 a.m.: Pakistan-U.S. Relations Under the Trump Administration: Challenges and opportunities
— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Air Force FY2026 Posture
— Brookings Institution, 10:30 a.m.: Backing Ukraine: What's Next for Russian Sanctions?
— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 11:30 a.m.: What's Next for Taiwan: Navigating New Diplomatic, Economic, and Security Dynamics
— Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12:30 p.m.: The Next Era of Israel-Lebanon Relations?: Ceasefire Status and Political Prospects
— New America, 2 p.m.: Book discussion on 'The Future of Deception in War: Lessons from Ukraine'
— Center for American Progress, 2 p.m.: Discussion on 'America's Role in the World: The Value of Leadership and Alliance' with Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.)
— House Foreign Affairs Middle East and North Africa Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: After Assad: The Future of Syria
— American Enterprise Institute, 2:30 p.m.: Emerging Technologies and Strategic Competition: A Conversation with Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.)
— Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: 'Global Strike Command's Role in Strategic Deterrence'
Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper and Ester Wells, who probably won't miss Robbie one bit.