Metro Vancouver housing prices may lower amid economic uncertainty, experts say

CBC

09-05-2025

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Housing prices could drop slightly in Metro Vancouver amid ongoing political and economic uncertainty in Canada, some real estate experts say.
The prediction comes as the latest market reports show a dip in April home sales compared to recent years, and a rise in the number of places for sale.
Normally, home sales jump significantly coming out of the winter and into the spring, but that didn't happen this year.
"Sales did increase, but the typical seasonal pattern has been quashed by external factors," said Ryan Berlin, head economist at realty company Rennie.
During the previous 10 years, sales were on average 79 per cent higher in April than they were in January, Berlin said, but for 2025, April sales were only 34 per cent higher.
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war is making buyers hesitant to commit, a cause cited widely by realtors and other experts, including Berlin.
He added that the inherent uncertainty leading up to the Canadian federal election also made buyers nervous.
Similarly, industry association Greater Vancouver Realtors, cited the federal election and the possibility of a recession due to the trade war as discouraging potential buyers, despite the favourable scenario of lower interest rates.
The decrease in sales means homes for sale are accumulating.
Data from Rennie, compiled from multiple sources, shows the number of homes on the market is the highest it's been since 2018. Specifically, there are about 16,000 pre-sale and new homes available as well as 24,000 resale homes in Metro Vancouver.
"We are at an all-time high for available homes," Berlin said.
Realtor Steve Saretsky said that while it used to take one or two weeks for a condo to sell, it can now take two or three months.
Investors flee
Investors are also buying less, he said.
"Unsold inventory on developer balance sheets is at all-time highs," Saretsky said.
This, he said, is because "the investor base really disappeared, which is to say the math simply does not work anymore."
Over the past decade, investors have been some of the main purchasers when it comes to pre-sales, buying into a housing project several years before it's built and ready, Saretsky explained.
"With the outlook for home prices and rents very negative … investors aren't interested in putting their money into the pre-sale market. So there's a lot of projects that won't get off the ground."
For investors who already own, Saretsky said the unstable economy, declining rents and stagnating prices mean many are trying to sell and get out of the market.
Affect on price
In a statement, Greater Vancouver Realtors called spring 2025 a buyer's market, suggesting that the combination of lower interest rates and high inventory presents "plenty of opportunity for anyone looking to make a purchase."
Saretsky said the reluctance of buyers, along with the accumulation of homes for sale, means prices could come down.
"The reality is, when you have record inventory for sale or you've got six or seven months of inventory on the market, sometimes the only way to stand out [as a seller] is to have the lowest price, right?"
University of British Columbia Sauder School of Business associate professor Tom Davidoff said potential buyers may want to consider giving lower-than-normal offers.
"If I were a buyer and I didn't need a place desperately, if I had a place I was comfortable that I could stay, I think I would be doing low-ball offers," he said.
"I think bidding five, 10, 15 per cent below asking. Why not? Take some swings."
But Berlin said there hasn't been a significant decrease in prices so far. Instead, prices have stagnated.
"This is pretty typical because home prices tend to be what we call 'downward sticky,'" he said.
However, in some cases, developers with new builds may lower their prices slightly, he said. Having already put a lot of money into a building, a developer may find themselves needing to sell and move on.
"If you're sitting on a number of homes that you haven't sold yet, you're unable to extract that capital from the project and invest it in the construction of new homes," he said.
Looking ahead, Berlin said political and economic stability are needed for home sales to pick up again.
"Until we have some certainty around what Canada's economic strategy is and [what] our relationship trade wise is with the U.S., I think you're going to see the buyer stay right where they are."