Betting companies expect customers to pay cost of Illinois' new tax
Betting companies expect customers to pay cost of Illinois' new tax
Welcome to Prince's Picks, a collection of betting news, analysis and opinions from BetFTW senior writer Prince J. Grimes.
Online sports betting just became more costly in Illinois -- though it remains to be seen for whom.
On Saturday, state lawmakers approved a $55 billion fiscal year budget that includes a new tax for every wager made in the state. The first 20 million bets will come with a 25-cent fee per bet. Every bet after that will have a 50-cent fee.
In theory, sportsbooks would just eat all or most of the cost -- with FanDuel and DraftKings shelling out the most money as the only operators taking over 20 million bets -- and bettors wouldn't notice it even exists. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the plan of these operators. The Sports Betting Alliance -- a coalition whose membership includes the two betting behemoths -- released a statement Monday calling the tax "discriminatory" and saying customers will bear the cost.
The SBA even started an online petition Saturday, prefilled for signees to tell lawmakers "I work hard for my money, and it feels like lawmakers are just trying to make my life, and the things I enjoy, more expensive."
With limited time to oppose the late proposal, several betting influencers and spokespeople (and The Ringer?) shared the petition with some variation of the same message. Rob Gronkowski, who works for FanDuel, went so far as to say Illinois was "trying to take away gambling."
Dramatic, much?
Betting isn't going anywhere. It just became a bit more pricey, though these online operators are certainly good for it. But with their stocks taking a hit Monday, the question turns to whether customers will feel the burn too.
Would operators add an actual 25-cent fee to bet slips? Would they build it into odds? Would they offer fewer promotions, like what FanDuel announced in response to last year's tax hike in Illinois? The ways in which they could pass this fee to bettors are limitless -- even if unnecessary and completely optional. DraftKings even tried hitting bettors with a surcharge in high-tax states last year before reversing course.
Ideally, operators wouldn't do any of the above. But having bettors pay these fees is clearly on the table based on the SBA's statement, which can be translated as "we're not taking a loss." If not them, then who?
Weekend recap: Vanderbilt and Texas sent packing
I'm so glad I delayed my picks for the College World Series because regional play delivered some massive upsets over the weekend. On Sunday, No. 1 overall seed Vanderbilt was eliminated by Wright State and No. 2 Texas was bounced by UTSA.
At +650, Vandy had the third-best odds to win the CWS. Texas was the fifth overall favorite at +1000, and with the third-highest handle percentage at BetMGM, the Longhorns were the book's second-biggest liability to win it all.
This was a great result for the house, and it might not be the end. LSU (+400), UNC (+700) and Tennessee (+1200) are all looking to avoid the same fate in elimination games Monday.
Where there's value for Thunder bettors
I warned a week ago that the time to bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder had probably long passed, because the team's odds to win were so short that it wasn't worth it for the average bettor. That's certainly proved to be the case in the NBA Finals, where the Thunder's -700 odds at BetMGM make them one of the biggest finals favorites in NBA history. That dominance trickles down to other markets like MVP, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a massive -625 favorite. He's an even bigger -5000 favorite to lead the series in scoring.
Unless you're an Indiana Pacers believer -- or have a good feeling about the length of the series -- there isn't much betting value in this finals.
UNDERDOGS: Pacers have longest NBA Finals odds in 7 years
However, I did find one area where Thunder fans can potentially make some money, and that's the "most rebounds" market where Chet Holmgren is a modest -125 favorite -- a decent bet for OKC's leading rebounder through the playoffs. However, the odds that caught my attention were the +550 on Isaiah Hartenstein that seem too good to be true. That's where I would be throwing my coins.
Though Holmgren has nine more rebounds than any other Thunder player this postseason, the team has had a different leading rebounder in each series -- Hartenstein in the first round, Holmgren in the second round, Jalen Williams (+700) in the conference finals. So, Holmgren isn't exactly a lock. Also, it was Hartenstein, not Holmgren who led the team in rebounding in the regular season at 10.7 boards per game.
Now, yes, I know, it's completely on the table for Indiana to run Hartenstein off the floor with their fast style of play. But given the way the Pacers struggled to keep Mitchell Robinson off the boards -- and considering OKC is such a huge favorite -- I'm willing to roll the dice on +550 odds that Hartenstein will play enough to be a factor. He had a game-high 13 boards in 34 minutes when the Thunder played Indiana on Dec. 26.
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