European spot & contract road freight indices converge at 132.2 in Q2
The benchmark spot rate index declined by 2.2 points quarter on quarter (QoQ) and 2 points year on year (YoY), while the contract rate index inched up by 1.2 points QoQ and 0.7 point YoY.
Spot rates are now at their lowest level since Q4 2023, the Upply-Ti-IRU study found.
The contract and spot rate indices for European road freight rates converged at 132.2 in Q2 2025, a Upply-Ti-IRU study found. The benchmark spot rate index declined by 2.2 points quarter on quarter (QoQ) and 2 points YoY, while the contract rate index inched up by 1.2 points QoQ and 0.7 point YoY. Spot rates are now at their lowest level since Q4 2023. The road freight sentiment index for Q2 was 8.2.
IRU is a Geneva-based world road transport organisation. Upply is a digital platform for connecting carriers and shippers, while Transport Intelligence (Ti) is a market research and analysis firm specialising in the logistics and supply chain industry.
Trade by road between major economies (Germany, France, Poland, Italy and Spain) has rebounded since the December 2024 low point. However, international tonnage exchanges between these economies are lower compared to 2024, an IRU release said.
Diesel prices were down by 6.4 per cent QoQ in Q2 2025, though prices have risen in recent weeks following the Israel-Iran war.
The road freight sentiment index for Q2 2025 stands at 8.2, indicating that respondents expect a slight increase in the next quarter.
There is modest upward pressure on rates across Europe, as demand improves and operating costs remain relatively stable.
There has been a short-term easing in demand pressure, but some demand pressure is expected to return in the medium to long term, led by a recovery in European Union (EU) retail activity.
Cost pressures are also subsiding, with falls in diesel prices offsetting wage and operating cost increases. The biggest factors therefore driving the benchmark road freight index are demand-driven.
Europe's road freight market is facing a mix of demand dynamics, coupled with an uncertain global economic environment. Modest European manufacturing gains in some countries are slightly lifting contract rates.
Manufacturing is showing signs of stabilisation. Eurozone factory output began expanding in June this year, with new orders stabilising and the Hamburg Commercial Bank purchasing managers' index rising to 49.5, the highest level since August 2022, though still just below the threshold for growth (50 points).
However, the slump in retail will not persist. Consumer fundamentals are improving across the board in Europe, and spending might pick up and put upward pressure on rates in the medium term.
Nonetheless, external pressures remain. Tariffs have the potential to reshape the trade landscape, with increased imports from China due to rocky US-China trade relations.
If these flows increase, freight demand could rise alongside them, particularly on city-to-port lanes, putting upward pressure on rates later in the year, the study adds.
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