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The Hill
20 minutes ago
- The Hill
Democrats seek to leverage Trump's low approval ratings
Democrats must center their political arguments around rising costs since President Trump took office so their struggling party can capitalize on his dismal polling numbers, political strategists tell The Hill. Relatable messaging on affordability is how Democrats can criticize Trump effectively and show voters that they represent the interests of working-class Americans, many of whom supported the president during the 2024 presidential election. They must shift from the usual broad-stroke statements that have previously fallen flat with voters. Instead, the message should be tailored to the price of specific items — like beef or timber — that have spiked during the early months of the Trump administration. 'Talk about the price of beef,' said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who doesn't support Trump, adding that the approach mirrors a strategy the president took during the campaign last year to defeat then-Vice President Kamala Harris. 'Just like Donald Trump talked about eggs, it's more than talking about the economy. It's making it relatable, and nothing is more relatable than hamburgers and a barbecue.' As fall inches closer, Democrats need to telegraph that message in town halls, in interviews and on social media to reach mass audiences in purple and even red districts, strategists say. 'Every minute of every day should be spent talking about rising costs,' said one Democratic strategist who has been in conversations where affordability has been the central topic of how Democrats find their way out of the wilderness. 'Every second that's not spent on talking about affordability, we're losing the argument.' Democrats say they are trying to seize upon the opportunity now, when Republicans are divided on the controversy surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, which has dominated the headlines this month, putting Trump and Republican lawmakers on defense. But some strategists are weary of how much Democrats need to emphasize messaging, even with 2026 midterms on the horizon. 'Messaging is not necessarily the determining factor in midterm elections ever by the party out of power,' seasoned Democratic strategist Garry South said. 'It is a referendum on the party in power.' Trump has stumbled on issues including tariffs and immigration, weakening his position from when he entered office more than six months ago. This week, a Silver Bulletin poll conducted by pollster Nate Silver showed that Trump's approval ratings steadily decreased from 52 percent to 44 percent during his first four months in office. And in recent months, the same poll revealed that Trump's approval ratings have hovered in the mid-40s, some of their lowest levels across his two terms. In the past two weeks, separate CNN-SSRS polling and Quinnipiac University polling have shown Trump's approval ratings as low as 42 percent and 40 percent, respectively. In recent days, some Republican lawmakers have sought to cocoon themselves until the Epstein storm passes, further inviting Democrats to fill the void. '[Republicans] are scared of their voters. They're scared of the president,' Democratic strategist Basil Smikle said. 'Go in areas where Republicans won't go, in areas where Republicans are. But countermessage. You may not win every day, but you may get a few voters to pay attention.' 'There are a lot of independents that are souring on the president and on the administration, and I think that's where there's opportunity,' Smikle added, referring to voters who can move the needle for Democrats in future election cycles. 'There are not going to be many Republicans that Democrats are going to get, so this is really about independents.' Even in the first six months of the Trump presidency, Republicans have given Democrats a gift in terms of strategy and messaging, Democratic operatives say. And while Democrats had traditionally gone after Trump himself in recent cycles, operatives say they should take aim at the Republican Party as a whole. 'They should talk about how Republicans are focused on protecting the president while the dangers of the big ugly bill are looming,' Smikle said. 'That, I think, is probably the most salient message here, that some of the most wealthy and powerful in this country are not just hoarding the money, they are also protecting themselves' with tax cuts in the 'big, beautiful bill.' Smikle added that Democrats need to follow that up with alternatives to Republican policies. '[Democrats] have got to offer something in return. They've got to give voters an opportunity to vote for something as opposed to just against something.' Other strategists say that right now, the best thing Democrats can do is not interfere and let Trump continue driving his approval ratings into the ground. 'Based on the Napoleonic principle that one should never interfere with an enemy when he's in the process of destroying himself, I'm not sure there's a lot Democrats proactively need to do,' South said. He added that midterms have historically been 'throw-the-bums out' elections that reflect exclusively the party in power. 'Republicans have that trifecta, the White House, the Senate, the House, and they're going to pay a price for it in 2026 no matter what Democrats do.'
Time Magazine
21 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
How China Could Take Taiwan, Without Firing a Shot
In the past few years, a series of high ranking officials have said that China will invade Taiwan by 2027. U.S. Secretary of State Pete Hegseth offered that view in May, as did the then Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu two years ago and the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley another two years earlier. In the face of such pronouncements, it would be tempting to see that date as a near certainty. But there are many reasons why it may not come to pass, including the worrying reality that China could achieve its designs on Taiwan without firing a shot. Read More: Why China-Taiwan Relations Are Getting So Tense Invasion is a simple word but it refers to complex things. China could try to launch an amphibious invasion, with one of the vast new ships with specialist landing barges spotted in Guangdong earlier this year. But the move would be foolhardy for a largely untested navy. A more likely scenario is a blockade, like the smaller-scale one Beijing imposed after the then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022. China might also set off a vast cyberattack. But even with all of the above Taiwan would not lay down and accept violence. And if China eventually prevailed—and that is a big if—winning the peace would be a far more time consuming and treacherous venture. On top of this, the odds are still that the U.S. would intervene, despite President Donald Trump's capriciousness. The risk of this becoming not just a China-Taiwan fight, but a direct confrontation between the world's two superpowers is real. And frightening, even to the leaders around Xi Jinping in Beijing. The speculation about 2027 has to be viewed from the perspective of who is saying it, and what their motives are. Taiwanese need to feel supported and protected, and so it is understandable that they want the world to take the threat seriously. And the U.S. is embroiled in an epoch-defining struggle against China. Talk of a looming Taiwan invasion is a good rallying point for the rest of the world to line up behind America and face down China before it tries anything. Read More: Why Protecting Taiwan Really Matters to the U.S. The one group of people who have largely remained silent are, unsurprisingly, the Chinese. Xi himself has talked plenty about reunification. But he has publicly avoided any hint of a timeline. For all the scary qualities attributed to China's current leaders, one thing that does characterize them is caution. Their domestic situation is economically challenging, and the Party fears they are one uprising away from being ousted. A major military move that went wrong would be precisely the thing that might precipitate chaos. They will therefore not engage in conflict unless they are certain it will succeed. And that is where the waiting game comes in. From Beijing, rightly or wrongly, they see daily evidence that the West is in decline. There is deep political polarization on almost every issue (except, ironically, on the threat from China). And a similar polarization can be seen in the politics of Taiwan itself, where President William Lai's administration is engaged in recalls against opposition lawmakers, in a move widely seen as trying to gain more power. For China, the hope is that Taiwanese will see the West growing less capable and potent with each passing year. The old adage of blood being thicker than water will mean that China's principal appeal for unity with Taiwanese—cultural commonality—will finally have traction. There is already some evidence that views on the island are moving in this direction. A recent poll by The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation found while 49% felt America more dependable than China, a significant 43% thought the reverse. The scenario of a slow reunification would have been pure fantasy even a decade ago. Today, it is a little more believable. And in the coming years, who knows, it might become a reality as the Western-led world order gives even more signs of systemic decline. On Taiwan, China just has to win the psychological war. And for that, it needs no landing barges or hi-tech ballistics. It just needs the West to carry on ripping itself apart.
Newsweek
21 minutes ago
- Newsweek
China Watchers React As Trump Caves to Beijing on Key Issue
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Trump administration's alleged decision to block Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te from making a stopover in New York has drawn criticism from policy experts, with some saying it marks a clear concession to Beijing during sensitive U.S.-China trade talks. Citing three sources familiar with the matter, British newspaper Financial Times wrote Monday that Trump administration officials refused Lai transit through New York en route to diplomatic allies in Central America. Newsweek reached out to the White House and the Chinese Embassy in the U.S. outside of office hours via email requests for comment. Why It Matters Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory, has repeatedly objected to any U.S. engagement with Taiwanese officials. The United States maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act, but has traditionally tried to balance its support for the island with efforts to avoid provoking Beijing. Taiwanese presidents, including Lai and his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, have in the past made stops in the U.S., during which they met with pro-Taiwan officials, en route to diplomatic visits in the Americas. Trump's alleged decision may signal a willingness to forgo precedent in favor of smoothing talks with Beijing. What To Know Analysts warn that treating Taiwan as a flexible bargaining chip, rather than a fixed American commitment, risks undermining the island's security and international standing. Ely Ratner, a former Pentagon official under the Biden administration, wrote on X: "Extraordinary mismanagement of the Taiwan relationship." Aaron Astor, a professor of history at Maryville College, also voiced concern on the platform: "I was told the Trump Administration was going to confront the People's Republic of China and not … deny Taiwan's president the right to pass through the US." "Please tell me this is fake news or a simple screwup and is not Trump yielding to Xi for a trade deal," Astor added. File photo: Lai Ching-te delivers his inaugural speech at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei on May 20, 2024. File photo: Lai Ching-te delivers his inaugural speech at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei on May 20, 2024. AFP via Getty Images What People Are Saying Nancy Pelosi, member of Congress (CA-11) and former House speaker, called the move a "victory for Xi." "Donald Trump's decision to deny permission for President Lai to visit New York sends a dangerous signal: that the United States can be bullied by Beijing into silence on Taiwan," Pelosi wrote on X. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, was quoted in the Financial Times report: "By signaling that aspects of the U.S. relationship with Taiwan are negotiable, Trump will weaken deterrence and embolden Xi to press for additional concessions regarding Taiwan." Ryan Fedasiuk, adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program, wrote on X: "Many long-standing China hands are too polite to say it, so I will: In a normal world it would be inconceivable that the United States would accede to Beijing's demand to pull down a routine transit by Taiwan's President." Fedasiuk added that the decision highlights serious problems in U.S. policy toward China, saying that it came on the heels of the administration's move to relax export controls on advanced chips to the U.S. ally. What Happens Next Hsiao Kuang-wei, Taiwan's foreign ministry spokesperson, told Newsweek that there was "no such thing as a postponement, cancellation, or the U.S. side refusing a transit stop." "As in the past, once the itinerary for a presidential trip is finalized, the Presidential Office will announce and explain it to the public in due course," the official said. Asked during Tuesday's Chinese Foreign Ministry press conference whether Beijing had contacted the U.S. about Lai's prospective transit, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China firmly opposes any form of official contact between the U.S. and Taiwan.
