Why the EU's push to cut Russian energy ties is so difficult

Time of India

08-05-2025

AP file photo
After months of delay and rising criticism over soaring
LNG
imports from Russia, the European Commission has announced its roadmap to eliminate Russian fossil fuels from the EU
energy
mix by 2027.
On Tuesday, Energy Commissioner Dan
Jorgensen
presented the long-awaited plan in Strasbourg, aiming to transform the bloc's political promises into binding measures.
"We've managed to put together a legislative package that will make sure that we will now get completely rid of Russian gas in our energy mix," Jorgensen told DW.
The plan proposes a two-phase approach: Banning new gas contracts with Russian suppliers by the end of 2025 and phasing out all remaining imports by 2027.
However, with fossil fuel flows still strong and intra-EU divisions widening, experts remain skeptical.
Russian LNG imports rising, against the trend
The move comes amid a sharp uptick in Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the EU. Although overall EU fossil fuel imports from Russia have fallen since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, imports of Russian LNG and pipeline gas rose by 18% in 2024, according to the European statistics office Eurostat.
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Undo
The financial stakes are high: The EU spent €23 billion ($26 billion) on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, directly contributing to the
Kremlin
's war budget. The new roadmap is set to stop that.
Pawel Czyzak
, researcher at the UK-based energy think tank Ember, sees the
EU Commission
's latest plan as a push against a slowing political momentum towards Europe's independence from
Russian oil
and gas, which has been complicated since the beginning.
"It has been very difficult for Europe to exit Russian energy fully," Czyzak told DW.
While the share of Russian gas in the EU energy mix has dropped, he noted that it still accounted for 17.5–19% of total imports in 2024, depending on the source.
On the one hand, the EU has faced a serious security threat from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, prompting urgent calls to end energy ties. On the other hand, the disruption that Russia has caused to global energy markets since 2021 has triggered economic challenges, soaring energy prices for industry and a deepening cost of living crisis for households.
"That's why the European Commission's approach has been inconsistent," Czyzak added.
An inconsistent phaseout path
LNG has, so far, not been part of the EU's sanction packages against Russia. In March 2025, the Commission implemented a regulation banning Russian LNG transshipments via European ports to non-EU countries. However, imports of Russian LNG for domestic European consumption remained unaffected, and some countries made use of this.
Russian LNG continues to enter Europe primarily through France, Belgium, and Spain, according to theEuropean LNG Tracker of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
France stands out, thanks to its advanced LNG infrastructure, the global nonprofit has found, increasing its Russian LNG imports by 81% in 2024, paying Russia €2.68 billion.
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an energy analyst at IEEFA, says there's "concern" that France is buying LNG, regasifying it into the French grid, and re-exporting it to neighboring countries.
"Once it's in the network, you can't trace it. That benefits both the exporter and the buyer," she told DW, meaning Russian gas may be rebranded as European once inside the system.
REPowerEU
This reality complicates the EU's 2022 REPowerEU plan, which promised to cut Russian fossil fuel dependence, boost renewables, and diversify suppliers.
But while researcher Pawel Czyzak is convinced that the EU is hitting big milestones in its energy transition, he sees the bloc moving in the wrong direction when it comes to gas imports: "What the EU has done is switching from one risky supplier to the next," he said.
LNG from the United States now dominates EU supply, but Czyzak questions its reliability.
"The US is using its position of power to pressure Europe to buy gas — and even threatens tariffs when it doesn't comply," said Czyzak. "Since the inauguration of
Donald Trump
, it's difficult to assess whether the US can still be treated as a reliable partner."
EU Commissioner Jorgensen disagrees, telling DW he would "struggle to find any supply in the world that is as bad as Russia."
Despite efforts to secure alternative gas sources, energy prices in Europe remain high. In 2024, gas prices on the continent rose by 59%, with the TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark climbing from €30 to €48 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
Although prices have dipped recently with the end of the heating season, they're still well above pre-war levels, deepening Europe's industrial-cost disadvantage compared with the US and China.
Durable solutions beyond LNG face EU disunity
Instead of replacing Russian gas with another importer, both experts agree that the EU must reduce its overall gas consumption. While decreasing energy needs for industries might be difficult, Jaller-Makarewicz thinks there is a "real potential for reduction regarding European households."
The IEEFA analyst argues that a "good start" would be building more insulated houses that lower gas demands for heating, making up a big part of gas consumption, as well as the promotion of solar panels for European homes.
But as the backlash to Germany's heat pump law showed, green reforms need public support to work.
Slovakia makes appeal for Russian gas
The EU Commission's roadmap now heads to member states. While only a qualified majority vote is needed, the political risks are clear. Countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria, all of them still reliant on Russian pipeline gas, have opposed similar moves in the past.
And beyond Brussels, diplomacy may complicate things further. Behind closed doors, talk of a US-brokered ceasefire in the Ukraine war has included discussions of sanctions relief for Russia, which could weaken the EU's resolve.
Therefore, Jaller-Makarewicz underscored the need to cooperate within the EU when it comes to energy. "Only if member states manage to stand together, the bloc can strengthen the union while offering security of supply."