2025 Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Preview: Is Chase Brown a locked-in RB1 in a healthy Bengals offense?

NBC Sports

17 hours ago

For the second straight season, the Bengals allowed a slow start to derail their season, finishing 9-8 and failing to make the playoffs. Despite having one of the best quarterback-wide receiver combinations in football and the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league, the Bengals simply couldn't find any answers on the defensive side of the ball. Heading into 2025, it may be now or never for Zac Taylor, who is just 46-52 (.470) as the head coach of the Bengals and likely needs a trip to the playoffs if he wants to remain in Cincinnati.
2024 Cincinnati Bengals Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 27.8 (6th)
Total yards per game: 365.5 (9th)
Plays per game: 63.5 (11th)
Dropbacks per game: 45.6 (2nd)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.19 (6th)
Rush attempts per game: 22.4 (30th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.08 (19th)
Joe Burrow and the passing game remain elite
In part because of their defensive struggles, the Bengals dropped back to pass more than almost any other team in the NFL. But that also led to plenty of success for Joe Burrow and company. He attempted the most passes he ever had in his career, and the Bengals as a team posted a strong EPA per dropback, ranking 6th in the league.
That volume also led to a tremendous season for Ja'Marr Chase, who distanced himself from all the other wide receivers when it came to fantasy production. Even Tee Higgins, who missed five games due to injury, finished inside the top-20 wide receivers, which gave the Bengals offense four players who ranked inside the top-20 at their respective fantasy positions.
The big question will be how much of that success can be attributed to a poor defense. The Bengals ranked a mediocre 15th in yards allowed per play, but also were 18th in opponents' scoring rate, 25th in sacks, and 25th in defensive EPA. If the Bengals can improve on the defensive side of the ball, they could theoretically become a more balanced offense, which would limit the targets to be spread around the passing attack.
Passing Game
QB: Joe Burrow, Jake Browning
WR: Ja'Marr Chase, Jermaine Burton
WR: Tee Higgins, Charlie Jones, Isaiah Williams
WR: Andrei Iosivas, Kendrick Pryor
TE: Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample, Erick All Jr.
The 2024 season was Dan Pitcher's first as the offensive coordinator after being promoted from his role as quarterbacks coach, and there were a few things that fantasy managers loved to see. Pitcher moved Ja'Marr Chase around in the formation more than Brian Callahan had in the previous seasons, and tried to push the ball down the field more, ranking 8th in the league in air yards per pass attempt and 5th in the league in adjusted net yards gained per pass attempt. Joe Burrow had an MVP-caliber season in Pitcher's system, finishing with 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns on a 70.6% completion percentage with nine interceptions and a QBR of 74.7. That was the best QBR of his career, along with the most yards and touchdowns he's ever thrown for and the highest completion percentage of his career. He led the league in completions, attempts, passing yards, and touchdowns. He also took the second-most sacks of his career and was sacked on almost 7% of his dropbacks.
As we mentioned above, some of that has to do with playing from behind as often as Burrow had to, but he took far too many hits, and the Bengals are going to need to make clear improvements in 2025. That starts with a brand new offensive line coach in Scott Peters, who was the Patriots' offensive line coach in 2024, and potentially a few new starters. Considering Burrow finished 3rd amongst quarterbacks in fantasy points per game with 22.5, fantasy managers aren't too upset with how 2024 went, and fewer comeback attempts may lead to fewer dropbacks, but Joe Burrow taking fewer hits is better for everybody.
When Burrow did have time to deliver the ball, it was often to Ja'Marr Chase, who led the league with 127 catches for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns. The 25-year-old set a career-high in each of those categories, plus posted a career-high 175 targets and a career-high 72.6% catch rate. His average depth of target was the second-lowest he's posted in the NFL, but Pitcher's new offensive scheme moved Chase around enough that they were able to get him in the matchups they wanted and give him easier looks as opposed to forcing the ball into tight windows. We should look for that to continue in 2025, which makes Chase the clear WR1 heading into fantasy drafts. A fully healthy season out of Tee Higgins, who started just nine games and had 911 receiving yards on 73 receptions, should help Chase as well. Higgins is a proven talent and will attract defensive attention away from Chase, but he's also capable of putting up big numbers in his own right. His 15.5 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring last season would have made him WR4 on the year, which puts him on the WR1/2 fringe in fantasy leagues.
The new offensive in Cincinnati also seemed to benefit Mike Gesicki. Early on, Gesicki was simply used to take Higgins' spot in the offense when the wide receiver was out with an injury. However, as the season went on, the Bengals seemed to feel more comfortable using Gesicki to take advantage of openings when the defense double-teamed Chase. From Week 8 on, Gesicki was TE13 in half-PPR scoring, averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game, which makes him a solid option in deeper formats, especially if we can expect some improvement now that he is returning to the same offensive scheme for the first time in his entire NFL career.
The rest of the passing attack figures to be a rotating group of ancillary pieces. The Bengals searched all season in 2024 to see who would replace Tyler Boyd, and nobody truly emerged. Andrei Iosivas moved into the slot for the first time and had a solid season, finishing with 479 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 36 catches, while Jermaine Burton struggled off the field in his adjustment to the NFL, which led to very little production on the field. Even if one of those players takes a step forward in 2025, it likely wouldn't be into a big enough role, barring an injury, to attract much fantasy attention.
Running Game
RB: Chase Brown, Zack Moss, Samaje Perine, Tahj Brooks
OL (L-R): Orlando Brown Jr., Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras, Cody Ford, Amarius Mims.
The Bengals' offensive line struggled in 2024. They finished 29th in pass blocking grade, according to PFF's grades, and also 29th in run blocking. They were also 30th in ESPN's run block win rate and 32nd in pass block win rate, so this is a unit that needed tons of work in the offseason. They started by hiring a new offensive line coach, then drafted Dylan Fairchild in the third round and signed Lucas Patrick away from the Saints to potentially give them two new starting guards. That would be good news for Chase Brown, who fully wrestled the starting job away from Zack Moss after Moss got injured in Week 5. From Week 6 on, Brown was RB8 in half-PPR scoring, averaging 16 fantasy points per game. He rushed for 990 yards on 229 attempts (4.3 ypc) with seven touchdowns, while also hauling in 54 of his 65 targets in the passing game for 360 receiving yards and four touchdowns with an 83% catch rate. That passing game involvement was a huge step in Brown's development, and is something he is continuing to work on this off-season. Brown posted a fairly average 14.8% broken tackle rate and had a below-average positive run rate, so the offensive line will need to take a step forward if we want to see his efficiency improve.
That's a 30-yard TD run by No. 30! @chasebrown____
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The rest of the Cincinnati backfield is the same as last year. Moss will return on a reworked contract after missing the second half of last season with a neck injury, and Semaje Perine or rookie Tahj Brooks will claim a spot as an additional receiving back. However, none of them should truly challenge Brown for playing time, which makes Brown a low-end RB1 in fantasy leagues.
2025 Cincinnati Bengals Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 9.5
Pick: Under (+125)
As we mentioned at the top of the article, the Bengals have had nine wins in each of the last two seasons, so this over/under makes sense. The talent they have on the offensive side of the ball makes it easy to see how they might put together another double-digit win total and playoff appearance. However, the amount of money they have allotted to their offensive studs has prevented them from spending big elsewhere. Their offensive line additions this offseason were minimal, and their defensive additions are in question as first-round pick Shemar Stewart continues to hold out over contract language. The Bengals are middle-of-the-pack in strength of schedule, which will help them out, but without making clear improvements on their 2024 weaknesses, it's hard to feel too confident that we're going to see a much different type of season in Cincinnati.
Joe Burrow comes in at No. 3 in Chris Simms' 2025 QB rankings, falling in "The Core Four" tier thanks to his stellar pocket play and ability to get rid of the ball quickly despite the consistent pressure he faces.