Poll reveals public in the south divided on border vote... and Rory McIlroy
Back in March 2002, Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble lobbied London for a poll on Irish unity on the same day as the Assembly elections.
Irish government archives show that Prime Minister Tony Blair told him, in parliamentary language, to 'get lost'.
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The Herald Scotland
4 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Grand Coalition between SNP and Labour may become inevitable
'Brandmauer' though, I can tell you, is German for 'firewall', and in political terms it is shorthand for the Grand Coalition between the centre-left SPD and the centre-right CDU/CSU. We have seen this Grand Coalition between Germany's main parties three times now – twice under Angela Merkel, and now again under new Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The purpose of the Brandmauer is to lock out a force considered by the mainstream parties to be so undesirable that the political nuclear button must be pressed. In 2005, under Ms Merkel, the imperative was to neuter the PDS – the successor to the Communist rulers of East Germany. Now, two decades on, the Brandmauer protects against Alice Weidel's AFD. The Grand Coalition under Angela Merkel continued under new Chancellor Friedrich Merz The Grand Coalition is now so normal in Germany that it has its own portmanteau – the Groko (Große Koalition). Before it happened, though, it would generally have been considered unthinkable. Not worth writing about, talking about or thinking about. Closer to home, we have seen a similar situation in Ireland. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may be ideologically similar, but as the parties on opposite sides of the Irish Civil War, the antipathy from that island's troubled history runs deep. The very notion of a Grand Coalition was ridiculous until a force so ostensibly menacing, in the form of Sinn Féin, became so strong that a momentous response was required. The 2020 and 2024 general elections, both three horse races, resulted in an Irish firewall to lock out Sinn Féin. This is the new normal in Ireland. Here in Scotland, don't bother asking a politician from our two established mainstream parties – the SNP and Labour – about a Grand Coalition. At least, not in public, where you'll be laughed out of court. But discuss it with some of them in private, as I have on several occasions over the last six-or-so months, and they will offer a much more open and thoughtful retort. They can read opinion polls just like anyone else. For much of the time since Labour's Westminster election victory, as its support has plummeted, the party looked so weak, and the SNP looked so comparatively strong, that the latter would not require the former, finding an adequate partner instead in the Liberal Democrats or its ex-spouse, the Greens. Read more from Andy Maciver Last week's Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, though, has shone a different light on the range of possible outcomes after May 2026's election. Labour, after its victory, is understandably buoyant. Much as Labour types will tell you that they knew they would win and it was the result of a master strategy unbeknownst to anyone, the reality is that this was a wafer-thin win in a genuine three-way fight. We should not underplay it; Labour significantly outperformed its national poll rating and clearly ran an impressive ground campaign. However, nor should we overplay it, since the party lost two per cent of its vote share from the previous election, in 2021. This point was made by our national polling guru, Sir John Curtice, as he simultaneously dampened Labour's spirits and rubbed salt in the SNP's wounds (the nationalists shipped a whopping 17 per cent of its 2021 vote share, and underperformed its already diminished national polling share). In Sir John's view, clearly, Labour won the battle but Reform may justifiably feel it is winning the war. Illustrating the point, Sir John crunched some numbers based on what pollsters term 'uniform swing' – in other words, if all the parties had risen and fallen across the country by the same proportion as they did in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, what would the outcome be? The answer? A composition of seats in the Scottish Parliament which would constitute the most explosive and chaotic result in the history of Holyrood. The SNP would win the election handsomely, but only after the loss of a quarter of its MSPs, returning 48. Reform would come a clear second, with 32 seats. In third would be Labour, down from its current 24 to 18, based on the loss of vote share despite its by-election triumph. The Tories would be next on 16, with the Greens on 10 and the Liberal Democrats on five. In order to function in an orderly way with a Parliamentary majority, a government needs at least 65 seats – 17 seats more than the SNP would have. Many might consider the Greens to be First Minister John Swinney's most natural ally, but with 10 seats they would remain well short. Even adding five from the Lib Dems, another party with whom Mr Swinney has a productive and comfortable relationship, would be insufficient. On the other side of the Parliamentary chamber sit two parties with whom the SNP would not, under any circumstances, be prepared to enter an agreement, formal or informal. With 48 seats between them, the Conservatives and Reform UK would be considered 'uncoalitionable'. Read more from Andy Maciver: That leaves Labour. With its 18 seats, together with the SNP's 48, a 66-seat government carries a majority of one in the Holyrood chamber. There is much water to flow under the bridge, and too many caveats to mention. This was a by-election, and therefore a poor predictor of behaviour at a general election. We are still nearly a year from the election, and much can, and probably will, change during that time. Moreover, the Scottish territory is, if anything, more complex than those which existed in Germany and Ireland, because of the lingering independence debate, on either side of which sit the SNP and the Labour Party. However, the most important similarity is the one which may be present; the perceived need to place a firewall around a political party considered to be beyond the pale. In a parliament composed similarly to the one we have today, a grand coalition is unthinkable. In one which includes a relatively small number of Reform MSPs it is improbable. But in a parliament of the sort extrapolated by Sir John last week, a grand coalition is neither unthinkable nor improbable. It is inevitable. Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters, and co-host of the Holyrood Sources podcast.
Powys County Times
11 hours ago
- Powys County Times
British-Irish Council to be held in Co Down
Representatives of the British and Irish Governments will meet in Co Down on Friday to discuss latest political developments across the islands. The 43rd meeting of the British-Irish Council (BIC), which was established to promote mutually beneficial development following the Good Friday Agreement, will have a particular focus on artificial intelligence. Ireland's premier and deputy premier will be among attendees, along with representatives of the Northern Ireland Executive and the UK Government, as well as the Governments of the Scotland, Wales, Jersey and the Isle of Man. Taoiseach Micheal Martin said relations across the islands are in 'a good place'. He said 'I look forward to the BIC Summit when I will have the opportunity to discuss with our nearest neighbours our own shared, and international challenges. 'Relations across these islands are in a good place and there is always more that can be done to deepen cooperation and unlock potential to the benefit of all.' Tanaiste Simon Harris added: 'I look forward to attending this BIC Summit, which is the first to take place in Northern Ireland since the restoration of the Executive and Assembly last year. 'The British Irish Council provides a very useful forum to discuss issues of topical concern across these islands. 'This is vitally important, particularly at a time when we are focused strongly on realising the potential of relationships across these islands.'
The National
13 hours ago
- The National
See the full lyrics of new single Kneecap The Recap
It comes just two days after one of their members was charged with a terror offence. The band, made up of Liam O hAnnaidh, Naoise O Caireallain and JJ O Dochartaigh, thanked the '25,000 legends' who will be attending Friday night's performance in a post on Instagram, before revealing the new song at 1pm. The song, Kneecap The Recap, features drum and bass artist Mozey and starts with a clip of a news presenter talking about the police investigation into the band. READ MORE: Kneecap's TRNSMT performance would need major operation, say Police Scotland Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch is behind the inspiration of the song with lyrics like: 'Get me Kemi's money and give her our thanks". They also say in the song that the politicians "career is going to rot" and references Margaret Thatcher, as well as Badenoch's attempts to block their arts funding and the Conservative Party's election loss. The song signs off with: "Onwards and upwards, free Palestine." The full lyrics are: The song has been translated by a native Irish Gaelic speaker Verse 1 I feel blessed With the fall of your wreck With the backstreet crew I'm going to resolve this The government now in bits Kneecap gave them a frisk As you'd say But we know they've got more than this Grab a handful and we'll stroll to the bank Get me Kemi's money and give her my thanks, We'll call it reparations Badenoch ya w*nk, Tried to take my money but I came and collected it back Chorus Na na na Disappear forever It's Kneecap the Recap West Belfast Na na na Disappear forever you Tories Say DJ Próvaí Móglaí Bap and Mo Chara Na na na Go away It's Kneecap the Recap West Belfast Na na na Disappear forever you Tories Say DJ Próvaí Móglaí Bap and Mo Chara Verse 2 Kemi ya wally The writings on the walls You like to think that you're fooling everybody But you're not, Just like the iron lady Your career is gonna rot You're just sh*t Not in control Kneecap back now To put things right Here and in the fight We are sick of your sh*t Kemi ya wally, Maggie is still sleeping in her box You don't care about which race You just care about gimme that You're so full of sh*t You with your leadership Bridge Go for a crack Some fellas from the lower whack When they see me Their hands go in their pockets Who's shouting yeah Cos I'm here to stroke ya I like those shoes Worth a few notes Seems they suit me I'll take them home lad You backing up Badenoch Cry into your sherry Had enough Badenoch You thought it's momentary Called your bluff Badenoch Belfast will you say F*ck Badenoch Chorus Outro Good effort, Kemi Hard lines in the elections Onwards and upwards Free Palestine Formed in 2017, the group are known for their provocative lyrics in both Irish and English, and merchandise. Their best-known tracks include Get Your Brits Out, Better Way To Live, featuring Grian Chatten from Fontaines DC, and 3Cag.
