‘Sinners,' ‘Accountant 2,' ‘Minecraft,' ‘Star Wars' 4-Way Box Office Race

Forbes

25-04-2025

The final weekend of April and the last weekend of 2025 before summer season gets underway sees a fascinating four-way race at the box office. Returning hits Sinners and The Minecraft Movie face off against newcomer The Accountant 2 and re-release Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith.
Wunmi Mosaku, Michael B. Jordan, and Miles Caton star in "Sinners."
Sinners is eyeing a sophomore $20-25 million this weekend in North America, a terrific hold that puts it atop the box office again before summer movie season kicks off next weekend with Marvel's Thunderbolts*. You can read Erik Kain's review of Sinners here.
Meanwhile, Minecraft looks to add around $20 million or more to its own domestic haul as well, climbing toward at least $775 million worldwide and with a chance at $800 million through end of business Sunday.
Entering the fray as the previously presumed frontrunner for the weekend box office crown, The Accountant 2 should land somewhere around $20-25 million stateside, but this film's primary target demo is also where Sinners and the fourth contender (which I'll get to momentarily) play heavily, so we'll see how that situation shakes out.
The big surprise entry in the weekend box office race is Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith, celebrating its twenty-year anniversary in style with a probable $20 million performance.
Where the math really gets interesting is, if any one film between Sinners, The Accountant 2, and Revenge of the Sith breaks out heavily with the action-leaning male demographic, then it could win the weekend and push The Accountant 2 into third place behind the Star Wars prequel.
Meanwhile, the above scenario could benefit The Minecraft Movie if the three other films split their primary demographic equally enough for them all to land right around $20-22 million but let Minecraft build a winning consensus with the broader mainstream audience.
On the other hand, the better Revenge of the Sith plays – say a second or even surprise-first place finish -- the more likely it is Minecraft might wind up in fourth place after all. This brings into focus just how close the weekend matchups could be, and just a couple of million dollars might separate positions one through four on the charts.
Should Sinners win a decisive victory this weekend, or even finish a close second, that raises the question of whether it could eat into the following weekend's summer movie season launch of Thunderbolts*.
Not that there's any chance of Sinners topping Thunderbolts* for the crown on that first May domestic weekend of the year, but rather that a strong third-weekend hold by Sinners of around $15 million would come at the expense of Thunderbolts* and could make the difference between hitting $70 million or not.
On the other hand, the growing list of good and popular options at the box office seems to be encouraging audiences and, as they say, a rising tide lifts all boats. Usually. So in this case, it's arguable that the better Sinners and other films perform, the better it will be in the long run for everybody, including the superheroes/supervillains of Thunderbolts*, since audience enthusiasm translates into more visits to multiplexes.
Sinners has become a breakout hit precisely because it delivers so much of what audiences want from original new storytelling, as compared/contrasted to what viewers want from returning and/or beloved franchises. Jeff Conway spoke with the film's writer-director Ryan Coogler, and his Proximity Media co-founders Zinzi Coogler & Sev Ohanian, about how and why the film won its first box office weekend, so be sure to check out that conversation.
While there's plenty of room for anything to happen, there's also plenty of evidence that while things will be close, the likely outcomes seem to be shaping up already as we get through Friday.
Sinners looks to win the weekend, followed closely by The Accountant, with The Minecraft Movie in third place and Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith a very close fourth. We've essentially got two two-way races, then, and I feel Sinners and Minecraft have the slight edges necessary to squeeze out victories in their respective head-to-head matchups. If either flips the other way, I'd expect it to be Minecraft and Star Wars trading places by a razor-thin margin. The good news is, these are all good movies offering very different viewing experiences that should be rewarded with a combined $90-100 million domestic box office gross to end the spring and usher in the summer.