Tropical Storm Erin Update as Chances of US Landfall Increase
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A National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast warned that Tropical Storm Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the coming days as it treks westward across the Atlantic Ocean as the chances of a U.S. landfall have increased slightly.
Why It Matters
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through November 30. Tropical Storm Erin is the fifth named storm of the season and the second to form this month, following Tropical Storm Dexter, which fizzled out over the ocean in the first week of August.
Erin could become a major hurricane, a designation that occurs when a storm's wind speeds reach 111 mph or higher, classified as a Category 3 hurricane. Should it strengthen as meteorologists expect, Erin could become not only the first hurricane but also the first major hurricane of the season.
What To Know
Tropical Storm Erin formed on Monday morning. Meteorologists had been tracking the storm, which originated as a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa, for days. As of Tuesday morning, Erin's maximum sustained windspeeds were measured at 45 mph, with stronger gusts.
A forecast map from the NHC shows that Tropical Storm Erin's path has shifted slightly south.
A forecast map from the NHC shows that Tropical Storm Erin's path has shifted slightly south.
National Hurricane Center
A forecast map from the NHC anticipates the storm will become a hurricane by Thursday morning. Further strengthening is expected, with Erin intensifying into a major hurricane by late Saturday morning. A major hurricane forms once the hurricane becomes a Category 3 storm, in which windspeeds are measured at 111 mph or greater.
Shortly after Erin formed on Monday, Max Velocity, a meteorologist with 1.3 million subscribers on YouTube, shared the NHC forecast map in a post on X, formerly Twitter.
"BREAKING: Tropical Storm Erin has been born, and we now have our first look at where the NHC believes this system could go," he wrote with the post. "We cannot completely rule out a US landfall, and the NHC expects this to become a MAJOR hurricane."
BREAKING: Tropical Storm Erin has been born, and we now have our first look at where the NHC believes this system could go. We cannot completely rule out a US landfall, and the NHC expects this to become a MAJOR hurricane. pic.twitter.com/1EMZXEVzKs — Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) August 11, 2025
Later in the evening on Monday, Velocity published another post about how forecast models are shifting for Tropical Storm Erin.
"Though the odds are low of a US landfall, it CANNOT be ruled out still. This will likely become a major hurricane," he posted. "Even if this doesn't make landfall, a close approach would still cause some problems. Still a very large spread, and details remain unclear. As it develops, the track will become clearer."
Models are shifting WEST for Tropical Storm Erin, which will shortly become Hurricane Erin.
Though the odds are low of a US landfall, it CANNOT be ruled out still. This will likely become a major hurricane. Even if this doesn't make landfall, a close approach would still cause… pic.twitter.com/fVOvATpFUj — Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) August 12, 2025
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that there has been a southward shift in some of the forecast models, which moves the storm closer to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Those areas could see between 1 to 2 inches of rain as the storm passes by.
"Since the trend has been further south, that does increase the chance slightly of a U.S. landfall," DaSilva said.
Even if the storm doesn't make landfall, some impacts could still be felt on the East Coast, such as dangerous rip currents.
As of Tuesday morning, there are no hazards affecting land and no watches or warnings in effect for coastal areas.
What People Are Saying
DaSilva told Newsweek: "I still think the most likely scenario is a track somewhere between the Outer Banks [of North Carolina] and Bermuda.
DaSilva added: "However, due to the fact that this storm has been moving a little further south and west, that can certainly increase the chance it can come closer to the United States."
NHC in a recent key message issued for Tropical Storm Erin: "It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place."
What Happens Next
Erin could become a hurricane as soon as Thursday morning. People in nearby areas, such as the Leeward Islands and the East Coast, should monitor local weather guidance as the storm develops.
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