Michael Taube: Early signs Liberal government may be short-lived

National Post

2 days ago

The 45th Canadian Parliament officially began on May 26. There are already some early signs that it may not last very long.
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Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals suffered an embarrassing defeat in a June 2 vote in the House of Commons. Conservative interim leader Andrew Scheer's sub-amendment to the throne speech, which called for a 'firm commitment' to present a spring economic statement or budget 'that incorporates measures aimed at unleashing Canada's economic potential,' passed by a vote of 166-164.
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This surprising result was aided by the fact that four Liberal MPs didn't vote due to the long-standing procedural measure of paired abstentions. This is when the parties represented in the House agree to have an MP sit out a vote and be paired with an MP of a different party who can't attend for a particular reason.
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In fairness, this was a non-binding vote. Confidence in the Liberal government wasn't being put to the test that day. At the same time, in spite of chief government whip Mark Gerretsen suggesting 'we knew the outcome of what that vote was going to be,' it's still a humiliating moment. While there have been a tiny number of instances of a federal government losing a non-binding vote, resolution or motion, it's highly unusual to have it happen this early in a parliament's life — and to have it linked to the Throne Speech.
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As it happens, Carney and the Liberals survived a second crisis with the Throne Speech the following day when it was adopted by the House of Commons in a peculiar fashion.
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Political commentators and columnists were briefly caught off-guard on June 4 when the NDP announced they would vote against the Throne Speech. The Conservatives seemed like a good bet to join them. Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet even told the media that 'we have no news about how the caucus is going to vote.'
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This had suddenly become an interesting situation. The minority Liberal government has 169 MPs. One of them, Francis Scarpaleggia, is the Speaker of the House. Only Green Party leader Elizabeth May appeared to be onside with the Liberals. If the Conservatives, NDP and BQ all voted against the Throne Speech, this would have been regarded as a vote of no confidence in Carney's Liberal government. This would have likely led to the dissolution of Parliament and a new federal election.
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The whole scenario seemed rather far-fetched. Going back to the polls so early wouldn't be desirable for most Canadians. The voters would blame one or more of the parties for causing this situation. Meanwhile, Elections Canada revealed that the estimated cost for running this year's federal election was $570 million. It would be difficult to convince the Canadian taxpayers, who foot this lofty bill, that they would need to spend this amount (or more) once again in 2025 — with no guarantee that it would lead to a different result.