A ‘super-aged' population poses major challenges for Hawaii

Associated Press

03-03-2025

Hawaiʻi faces a reckoning as its population of kūpuna age 75 and older surges, consuming more resources than they bring in.
The challenge, outlined in a recent report, is on the state's doorstep: how to meet the needs of a group described as the super-aged.
'Those are ages at which the needs are greatest, whether you look at it in terms of money or in terms of health care needs or caregiving needs or anything else that you might think of,' said Andrew Mason, an University of Hawaiʻi professor emeritus who authored the report, which was funded by the state's Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism.
'This is going to require a lot of attention on the part of every segment of society,' Mason told Civil Beat.
One in four Hawaiʻi residents will be over 65 in 2035, he said, and by then the state's super-aged population will number 219,000.
The report, 'Aging and Hawaiʻi's Generational Economy,' examined how much every age group consumes in private and public resources and how much it produces through its labor. The gap shows where there are needs that must be met.
Advocates for seniors said the report's findings are an urgent wake up call.
'Every policymaker and lawmaker out there should read this,' said Keali'i Lopez, state director of AARP Hawaiʻi.
Aging Into A Deficit
When someone consumes more than they produce, it's called a lifecycle deficit.
The report's findings, while perhaps unsurprising, are stark: By the time they reach 80, people consume $52,000 a year more than they bring in. That's compared to people at 48, who the report said earn $35,000 more than they consume, which is a lifecycle surplus.
Consumption by the elderly means the use of things like health care and federal benefits such as Medicare and Social Security, as well as of private assets such as housing and pensions.
Meeting the challenge is a multifold task, Mason said. Not to be overlooked, he said, is addressing the needs of another age group that consumes more than it produces: children, whose consumption is centered on education and family resources.
'A big challenge is going to be to balance the needs of all generations at the same time that we're taking care of the needs of seniors,' he said. 'We also have to be sure that we're providing the resources that children need in order to be healthy and educated and prepared to succeed when they reach adulthood.'
The Impact Of The Pandemic
The report is based on 2022 data, updating an earlier version that used 2012 data, when the generational changes driving what Hawaiʻi is now confronting were getting underway, Mason said.
Things have changed since then.
From the earlier data, 'Important challenges were identified but the results … were optimistic,' the new report said. 'It appeared that solid economic growth and generational equity were well within reach.'
Then, a global pandemic threw a wrench in the works.
'Our assessment of changes since 2012 … is sobering,' the report said.
Mason put it this way: 'Covid-19 was such a tremendous setback in terms of unemployment and recession and cuts in public resources, that it really made it very hard to try to make as much headway as might have been hoped. We know that standards of living did not improve as much as we had hoped. And in some areas they had really declined.'
The elderly saved less. Inflation worsened things all around. And children suffered well-documented educational setbacks, which Mason said are especially troubling looking forward.
'If we do not provide strong support for young people then seniors will really be in trouble in the future, because we need young people who can get good jobs and are highly productive,' Mason said. 'And we need an economy in Hawaiʻi that is supportive of those aspirations.'
Caregivers Need Housing
Status quo trends will not rise to the challenge, according to Lopez, of the AARP.
'With Hawaii's growing senior population and the fact that so many of our younger, working residents are leaving the state, it's very clear that there will be fewer resources, meaning taxpayers, people who are working and paying taxes,' she said, 'while at the same time there's going to be an increase of older adults here who are going to need to be cared for.'
Creating more affordable housing is the most critical piece of the puzzle, Lopez said.
'That is the biggest issue: the ability for families to be able to remain here in Hawaiʻi,' she said. 'So affordable housing, whether it's for low-income, workforce housing, housing for kūpuna, supportive housing — just affordable housing in general.'
Policy changes such as paid family leave legislation, giving people the space and time to care for older family members, are also imperative, she said.
An AARP study found there are about 150,000 family caregivers in Hawaiʻi who put in a combined 144 million hours a year in caring for loved ones.
'If a whole lot of those folks aren't here anymore, you know, these older adults are going to need to be cared for,' Lopez said.
She noted that bills that would have required the state to set up a family and medical leave insurance program died in committee this legislative session, but a bill to give unpaid caregivers a tax credit remains alive.
'It's all around, from our perspective, how to help family caregivers so they can continue their labor of love, so to speak, in caring for their loved ones,' Lopez said.
The challenge, she said, has a particular resonance in Hawaiʻi.
'One of the things that's wonderful about Hawai'i is many of us who live here come from cultures where caring for your elders is very much the fabric of our culture,' she said. 'So being able to have family here who recognize that's a privilege is an important part of the social network to make sure that kūpuna can age in their homes where they want to.'
Bearing The Burden
The UHERO report asks what the cost might be of meeting the needs of the super-aged: 'Can working-age adults be expected to pay more taxes to fund old-age needs? Should we reduce spending on children to support a growing senior population?'
It's a balancing act, Mason said, and it's clear who will have to perform it most.
'It's the middle generation that's going to have to be the ones that handle that balancing act,' he said. 'They get squeezed. They're the ones that have to provide both for children and for seniors. And so a lot of this is going to fall on them to make sure that we're successful.'
Mason identified several approaches, in addition to creating more affordable housing.
They could include adjustments to tax policy, he said – perhaps raising taxes on wealthier seniors – strengthening K-12 education, helping people save more for retirement and developing 'contingency plans' for any federal moves to shrink Medicare and Social Security benefits.
The report, bracing as it is, ends on a positive note, saying: Hawaiʻi 'honors kūpuna and cares about their well-being. The last decade has been difficult for many but especially for children and kūpuna. The coming decades offer an opportunity to strengthen support for all generations.'
Doing that, Lopez said, will require a willingness to stretch beyond what has been attempted so far.
'The interest is there. Identifying and figuring out what's the best way and what's a cost effective way to do that is what the Legislature is struggling with,' she said. 'In some instances, I think it's a matter of saying, you know what, 'Let's do a pilot. Let's attempt and try something and try different things and be prepared to fail, but at least try something different than what we've done all along.'
UH political scientist Colin Moore agreed that the political will exists to take on the challenge.
'If there's any state and political environment that is sympathetic to the needs of kūpuna, I mean, it's here in Hawai'i,' Moore said.
He also agreed that creating affordable housing is a key to meeting the challenges described in the report and said that politically the state appears positioned to take that on.
'Sometimes in the political process, the hardest thing is just making that issue the No. 1 priority. And I don't think there is anyone who is an elected official in this state or who watches its politics closely, who would say that housing isn't the No. 1 concern.'
At the same time, he said, barriers ranging from regulatory obstacles to neighborhood opposition remain imposing.
'If you're truly going to assert the will, if you're truly going to reduce some of the barriers, there are going to be groups that are going to oppose you and are going to be angry about it,' he said. 'And often this comes down to the neighborhood level. And for a lot of elected officials, that's when it gets tough.'
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