Oil prices fall on demand concerns in volatile session
NEW YORK: Oil prices fell on Thursday, retreating from earlier gains, after the International Energy Agency's director warned of weaker demand in China, while the market also watched for potential new US sanctions curbing Russian crude flows and an OPEC+ decision on hiking output in July.
Prices had earlier risen after a US court on Wednesday ruled that President Donald Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from US trading partners.
The court was not asked to address some industry-specific tariffs Trump has issued on automobiles, steel and aluminium using a different statute.
The ruling buoyed risk appetite across global markets, which have been on edge over the impact of the levies on economic growth, but some analysts said the relief may only be temporary given the Trump administration has said it will appeal.
Brent crude futures dropped 60 cents, or 0.9%, to $64.30 a barrel at 12:12 p.m. EDT (1612 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 67 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.17 a barrel. Futures fell after IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg that demand for oil was considerably weak on China and developments in Russia and Iran were 'question marks' for oil prices.
The US and Iran are holding talks meant to rein in Iranian nuclear activities that have rapidly accelerated since Trump pulled Washington out of a 2015 deal between Iran and major powers that strictly limited those activities.
'We've seen a lot of back and forth concerns about the Iran situation, whether we're getting closer to a conflict or a peace deal,' said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. 'We're moving technically and emotionally right now in a lot of these markets.' On the oil supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, could agree on Saturday to accelerate oil production hikes in July.
'We're assuming the group will agree on another large supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day. We expect similar increases through until the end of the third quarter, as the group increases its focus on defending market share,'
ING analysts said in a note. However, there are also concerns about potential new sanctions on Russian crude. Adding to supply risks, Chevron has terminated its oil production and a number of other activities in Venezuela, after its key license was revoked by the Trump administration in March.
Venezuela in April cancelled cargoes scheduled to Chevron, citing payment uncertainties related to US sanctions. Chevron was exporting 290,000 bpd of Venezuelan oil, or over a third of the country's total, before that.
'From May through August, the data points to a constructive, bullish bias with liquids demand set to outpace supply,' Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy, said in a note, expecting demand growth to outpace supply growth by 600,000 to 700,000 bpd.
Oil futures on Thursday pared some losses after Energy Information Administration data showed US crude inventories posted a surprise draw in the latest week, falling by 2.8 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels.
Analysts had expected a 118,000-barrel rise. In Canada, a wildfire in the province of Alberta has forced residents of a small town to evacuate and prompted a temporary shutdown of some oil and gas production, which could reduce supply.
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Express Tribune
34 minutes ago
- Express Tribune
US warns of China threat, urges Indo-Pacific allies to boost defence spending
Listen to article US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned on Saturday that the threat from China was real and potentially imminent as he pushed allies in the Indo-Pacific to spend more on their own defence needs. Hegseth, speaking for the first time at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Asia's premier forum for defence leaders, militaries and diplomats, underlined that the Indo-Pacific region was a priority for the Trump administration. "There's no reason to sugar coat it. The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent," Hegseth said, in some of his strongest comments on the Communist nation since he took office in January. He added that any attempt by China to conquer Taiwan "would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world", and echoed Trump's comment that China will not invade Taiwan on the president's watch. China views Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to "reunify" with the democratic and separately governed island, by force if necessary. It has stepped up military and political pressure to assert those claims, including increasing the intensity of war games around Taiwan. Taiwan's government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims, saying only the island's people can decide their future. "It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo Pacific," Hegseth said. China said the comments "were steeped in provocations and instigation". "Mr. Hegseth repeatedly smeared and attacked China and relentlessly played up the so-called 'China threat'," the Chinese embassy in Singapore said on its Facebook page. "As a matter of fact, the U.S. itself is the biggest 'troublemaker' for regional peace and stability." Hegseth's comments on allies needing to increase spending is likely to cause consternation amongst partners, even though experts said he faced a relatively friendly audience in Singapore. China's Defence Minister Dong Jun has decided to skip the major Asian security forum and Beijing has sent only an academic delegation. Hegseth has previously taken aim at allies in Europe for not spending more on their own defence. In February, he warned Europe against treating America like a "sucker" while addressing a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels. On Friday, while delivering the keynote address at the Shangri-La Dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron said Hegseth was justified in asking Europe to increase its own defence spending. Europe stepping up IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, May 31, 2025. REUTERS/Edgar Su Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab "It's hard to believe, a little bit, after some trips to Europe that I'm saying this, but thanks to President Trump, Asian allies should look to countries in Europe as a new found example," Hegseth said. "NATO members are pledging to spend 5% of their GDP on defence, even Germany. So it doesn't make sense for countries in Europe to do that while key allies in Asia spend less on defence in the face of an even more formidable threat, not to mention North Korea." Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans said it was important to have Hegseth acknowledge that European countries were stepping up. "It was for me maybe the first time or one of the first times I heard the U.S administration acknowledge this explicitly," Brekelmans said, referring to Hegseth's comments. U.S. Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth, who is co-leading a bi-partisan delegation to the Shangri-la Dialogue, said it was noteworthy that Hegseth emphasised that the United States was committed to the region, but his language on allies was not helpful. "I thought it was patronising of our friends in the Indo-Pacific in particular," Duckworth said. Spending on weapons and research is spiking among some Asian countries as they respond to a darkening security outlook by broadening their outside industrial partnerships while trying to boost their own defence industries, according to a new study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the organisation that runs the Shangri-La Dialogue. The spike comes even as Asian nations spent an average of 1.5% of GDP on defence in 2024, a figure that has kept relatively constant over the last decade, it said. Hegseth suggested that allies in Europe focus on security on the European continent, so that Washington could focus on the threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific, alongside more participation by allies in Asia. "We would much prefer that the overwhelming balance of European investment be on that continent, so that as we partner there, which we will continue to do, we're able to use our comparative advantage as an Indo-Pacific nation to support our partners here," he said in response to a question after his speech. Hegseth, a former Fox TV host who has spent much of his first months in office focused on domestic issues, spoke to the international audience on topics that he has frequently talked about when in the United States, like "restoring the warrior ethos." "We are not here to pressure other countries to embrace or adopt our politics or ideology. We are not here to preach to you about climate change or cultural issues," Hegseth said. "We respect you, your traditions and your militaries. And we want to work with you where our shared interests align."
Business Recorder
3 hours ago
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Trump gets key wins at Supreme Court on immigration, despite some misgivings
The U.S. Supreme Court swept away this week another obstacle to one of President Donald Trump's most aggressively pursued policies - mass deportation – again showing its willingness to back his hardline approach to immigration. The justices, though, have signaled some reservations with how he is carrying it out. Since Trump returned to the White House in January, the court already has been called upon to intervene on an emergency basis in seven legal fights over his crackdown on immigration. It most recently let Trump's administration end temporary legal status provided to hundreds of thousands of migrants for humanitarian reasons by his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden while legal challenges in two cases play out in lower courts. The Supreme Court on Friday lifted a judge's order that had halted the revocation of immigration 'parole' for more than 500,000 Venezuelan, Cuban, Haitian and Nicaraguan migrants. On May 19, it lifted another judge's order preventing the termination of 'temporary protected status' for more than 300,000 Venezuelan migrants. In some other cases, however, the justices have ruled that the administration must treat migrants fairly, as required under the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of due process. 'This president has been more aggressive than any in modern U.S. history to quickly remove non-citizens from the country,' said Kevin Johnson, an immigration and public interest law expert at the University of California, Davis. No president in modern history 'has been as willing to deport non-citizens without due process,' Johnson added. That dynamic has forced the Supreme Court to police the contours of the administration's actions, if less so the legality of Trump's underlying policies. The court's 6-3 conservative majority includes three justices appointed by Trump during his first term as president. US says it will start revoking visas for Chinese students 'President Trump is acting within his lawful authority to deport illegal aliens and protect the American people. While the Supreme Court has rightfully acknowledged the president's authority in some cases, in others they have invented new due process rights for illegal aliens that will make America less safe. We are confident in the legality of our actions and will continue fighting to keep President Trump's promises,' White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson told Reuters. The justices twice - on April 7 and on May 16 - have placed limits on the administration's attempt to implement Trump's invocation of a 1798 law called the Alien Enemies Act, which historically has been employed only in wartime, to swiftly deport Venezuelan migrants who it has accused of being members of the Tren de Aragua gang. Lawyers and family members of some of the migrants have disputed the gang membership allegation. On May 16, the justices also said a bid by the administration to deport migrants from a detention center in Texas failed basic constitutional requirements. Giving migrants 'notice roughly 24 hours before removal, devoid of information about how to exercise due process rights to contest that removal, surely does not pass muster,' the court stated. Due process generally requires the government to provide notice and an opportunity for a hearing before taking certain adverse actions. The court has not outright barred the administration from pursuing these deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, as the justices have yet to decide the legality of using the law for this purpose. The U.S. government last invoked the Alien Enemies Act during World War Two to intern and deport people of Japanese, German and Italian descent. 'The Supreme Court has in several cases reaffirmed some basic principles of constitutional law (including that) the due process clause applies to all people on U.S. soil,' said Elora Mukherjee, director of Columbia Law School's immigrants' rights clinic. Even for alleged gang members, Mukherjee said, the court 'has been extremely clear that they are entitled to notice before they can be summarily deported from the United States.' A wrongly deported man In a separate case, the court on April 10 ordered the administration to facilitate the release from custody in El Salvador of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran migrant who was living in Maryland. The administration has acknowledged that Abrego Garcia was wrongly deported to El Salvador. The administration has yet to return Abrego Garcia to the United States, which according to some critics amounts to defiance of the Supreme Court. The administration deported on March 15 more than 200 people to El Salvador, where they were detained in the country's massive anti-terrorism prison under a deal in which the United States is paying President Nayib Bukele's government $6 million. Ilya Somin, a constitutional law professor at George Mason University, said the Supreme Court overall has tried to curb the administration's 'more extreme and most blatantly illegal policies' without abandoning its traditional deference to presidential authority on immigration issues. 'I think they have made a solid effort to strike a balance,' said Somin, referring to the Alien Enemies Act and Abrego Garcia cases. 'But I still think there is excessive deference, and a tolerance for things that would not be permitted outside the immigration field.' That deference was on display over the past two weeks with the court's decisions letting Trump terminate the grants of temporary protected status and humanitarian parole previously given to migrants. Such consequential orders were issued without the court offering any reasoning, Mukherjee noted. 'Collectively, those two decisions strip immigration status and legal protections in the United States from more than 800,000 people. And the decisions are devastating for the lives of those who are affected,' Mukherjee said. 'Those individuals could be subject to deportations, family separation, losing their jobs, and if they're deported, possibly even losing their lives.' Travel ban ruling Trump also pursued restrictive immigration policies in his first term as president, from 2017-2021. The Supreme Court gave Trump a major victory in 2018, upholding his travel ban targeting people from several Muslim-majority countries. In 2020, the court blocked Trump's bid to end a program that protects from deportation hundreds of thousands of migrants - often called 'Dreamers' - who entered the United States illegally as children. Other major immigration-related cases are currently pending before the justices, including Trump's effort to broadly enforce his January executive order to restrict birthright citizenship - a directive at odds with the longstanding interpretation of the Constitution as conferring citizenship on virtually every baby born on U.S. soil. The court heard arguments in that case on May 15 and has not yet rendered a decision. Another case concerns the administration's efforts to increase the practice of deporting migrants to countries other than their own, including to places such as war-torn South Sudan. Boston-based U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy required that migrants destined for so-called 'third countries' be notified and given a meaningful chance to seek legal relief by showing the harms they may face by being send there. Murphy on May 21 ruled that the administration had violated his court order by attempting to deport migrants to South Sudan. They are now being held at a military base in Djibouti. The administration on May 27 asked the justices to lift Murphy's order because it said the third-country process is needed to remove migrants who commit crimes because their countries of origin are often unwilling to take them back. Johnson predicted that the Supreme Court will side with the migrants in this dispute. 'I think that the court will enforce the due process rights of a non-citizen before removal to a third country,' Johnson said.
Express Tribune
8 hours ago
- Express Tribune
Senator Mushahid meets Russian FM, lauds Moscow's 'positive neutrality'
Listen to article Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Saturday, thanking Russia for its 'positive neutrality' during the recent tensions between India and Pakistan. The 40-minute meeting, held before the start of the high-level forum, was part of a broader interaction with five prominent Asian leaders from China, Turkiye, South Korea, and Cambodia. Senator Mushahid was the only guest from Pakistan, specially invited by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the ruling United Russia party to deliver a keynote address at the forum. Lavrov reaffirmed Russia's foreign policy stance of promoting regional peace, security, and stability. Senator Mushahid appreciated Russia's approach, particularly its balanced response during Indo-Pak tensions, and praised President Putin's Eurasian Security Initiative, describing it as rooted in the principle of 'indivisible security'—a concept also echoed in China's Global Security Initiative. Speaking to Russian media, Senator Mushahid commended the warmth of Russian-Pakistani ties and reiterated Islamabad's support for a multipolar regional order. 'Russia and China, led by President Putin and President Xi Jinping, are building a peaceful and prosperous Eurasia—and Pakistan stands ready to be an equal partner in that journey,' he said. At the Eurasian Forum, attended by over 100 delegates from 25 countries, Foreign Minister Lavrov delivered a hard-hitting policy speech critical of Western alliances in Asia. He directly addressed concerns over India's participation in US-led groupings. Lavrov denounced the Indo-Pacific Strategy, saying, 'This Indo-Pacific had never existed—NATO made up this term to drag India into their anti-China schemes.' His remarks were seen as a rebuke to India's growing role in the QUAD alliance, which includes the United States, Japan, and Australia. Lavrov added that while Indian officials claimed their role in QUAD was purely economic, joint military drills among QUAD nations told a different story. 'In practice, however, QUAD nations are already endeavouring—with notable persistence—to organise joint naval exercises,' he said. The comment drew an uncomfortable silence from the 12-member Indian delegation, including three BJP parliamentarians, present at the forum. Lavrov accused NATO of attempting a return to Afghanistan, warning, 'Four years after their ignominious retreat, NATO is once again seeking new points of entry into Afghanistan.' Senator Mushahid, during his media interactions, voiced full support for Eurasian cooperation and denounced military blocs like the QUAD and the so-called 'Asian NATO' as destabilising ventures. He emphasised Pakistan's commitment to diplomacy, the UN Charter, and regional trust-building. The forum concluded with a strong call from Asian and Eurasian representatives to move away from military containment and towards inclusive, rules-based regional cooperation.
