As Democrats try to defend cities from Trump, have they learned their lesson on crime?

Yahoo

a day ago

WASHINGTON – Talking about crime has long been an Achilles heel for Democrats, and they've continued to struggle with the issue at the national level during Donald Trump's second term, even as data shows violence decreasing in major U.S. cities.
But changing the public's perception about crime will be imperative for the party going into the 2026 midterm elections and beyond, as Trump deploys the National Guard in cities such as Los Angeles, and most recently, Washington, D.C.
Places like Baltimore and Chicago could be next, the president hinted. The mayors of those cities say they're ready to fight back by showing, rather than telling, how their cities have lowered crime.
'We are the ones that are closest to the people," Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott told USA TODAY. "We're the ones that's proven with the results, and we're the ones that know how to communicate in a way that people understand."
More: National Guard in DC could carry weapons and detain people, Army says
The administration's militarized crackdown in the nation's capital now presents Trump's liberal opponents with a significant test as national figures − including many who are tiptoeing into the shadow primary for president in 2028 − grasp at different messages to counter Trump's rhetoric and executive actions.
Some have cast his claims about crime as a "distraction" while others have warned the National Guard deployments are a step toward "authoritarianism."
"He was just getting warmed up in Los Angeles. He will gaslight his way into militarizing any city he wants in America. This is what dictators do," California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an Aug. 11 post on X.
Other party leaders prefer to emphasize how much crime is coming down in those urban centers.
Numbers don't speak loudly
Yet, strategists and experts warn that simply citing data and statistics runs the risk appearing tone deaf, much in the way Democrats came off during the 2024 election, when voters repeatedly said they didn't feel inflation was decreasing fast enough in spite of positive trends.
"So opposed to going to the statistics − which for some voters will feel like gaslighting: 'Well, maybe it's safer, but I heard gunshots outside of my window' − what Democrats can do is actually talk about investments they have made and what gains they have seen in making communities safer," said Insha Rahman of the Vera Institute of Justice, a research and advocacy organization.
Without a clear national figurehead, however, that task largely falls to Democratic mayors, several of whom stressed that their cities are successfully combating violence.
They said their party must apply the lessons learned from 2024 and show voters that metropolitan areas are not crime-ridden hell-holes.
Mayors take the lead in spotlighting policies that make cities safer
Democrats have to "stop being afraid" to talk about fighting crime, Scott said.
That starts with forcefully combating GOP claims by spotlighting personal stories coupled with the significant investments that have helped lower crime rates, the mayors said.
"Share the facts until you're blue in the face," said Kansas City, Missouri, Mayor Quinton Lucas.
The Vera Institute's advocacy arm Vera Action, for example, assessed that the the GOP spent more than $1 billion attacking Democrats on crime and immigration in 2024, while Democrats spent roughly $319 million on advertisements that played up their public safety records.
"We missed the mark, and now it's time for us to take the bullhorn ourselves and talk about the good work we're doing as mayors," said Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb, who also serves as president of the Democratic Mayors' Association. "This is a narrative we can win.'
Making that information resonate with voters, however, will be difficult. Many Americans often view crime through what they see in their neighborhoods or on local TV news, experts say, rather than academic studies and government reports.
That has been a significant problem for Democrats as the party adapts to Trump's blitzing style, which is often propped up by administration officials and MAGA-aligned activists spotlighting individual acts of violence that startle most voters.
In 2024 exit polling, Trump outperformed Kamala Harris by five points on the issue of crime. He hammered the former California attorney general and San Francisco district attorney as soft on violence and made misleading claims about the amount of crime the country experienced while she and former President Joe Biden were in office.
Violent crime decreased nationwide by an estimated 3% in 2023 and fell by 4.5% in 2024, according to the FBI. Crime has continued to drop in most categories in a July study from the Council on Criminal Justice.
Several of the cities called out by Trump − all with Black mayors − have seen significant dips in crime. They attribute the reduction in part to investments in youth programs and other policing alternatives.
Mayor Bibb, in Cleveland, said he'd spoken to DNC Chair Ken Martin and other party leaders and they are of the same mindset: Democrats have to flood the country with what they are doing to improve public safety.
Days before Trump seized control of law enforcement in Washington, D.C., the DNC cut an 8-minute video − dubbed "Mayors Get S--t Done" − featuring Bibb that showcased crime prevention programs across the country that have decreased homicides, expanded affordable housing, and reduced homelessness.
"Data is one thing, but it's also making sure people feel and perceive the safety in their cities, and I know that it's something I'm focused on in Cleveland, and my counterparts across the country are focused on it as well, too," Bibb said.
He noted homicides are down 30% in Cleveland in the first half of the year.
Democrats say it's a distraction
Democrats with higher political aspirations have focused their messages less on crime, and instead have clapped back by saying Trump's deployment in D.C. and threats to do so elsewhere are a distraction from unpopular parts of his tenure, such as healthcare cuts in Republicans' tax and spending bill or Jeffrey Epstein's case files.
"Let's not lie to the public," Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a 2028 hopeful, said in an Aug. 11 post on X responding to Trump. "You and I both know you have no authority to take over Chicago. By the way, where are the Epstein files?"
As roughly 800 guard members move into position across Washington, D.C., Trump pledged that his efforts will result in a "crime-free" city.
"This is going to be a beacon, and it's going to also serve as an example of what can be done," Trump said on Aug. 13.
He told reporters earlier this week that "other cities are hopefully watching" and will "self clean up" as a result.
But in several metro areas that has already begun. As the Justice Department itself announced in January, total violent crime in Washington, D.C. for 2024 was down 35% from the year before.
And in Chicago, long a Republican example of runaway disorder, violent crime is down 22% compared to the same period last year. This year has seen 110 fewer homicides than in the same period in 2024.
Mayor Brandon Johnson, who took office in 2023, lives on the West Side of Chicago, where shootings and other violence have been a scourge. He said he understands why some residents feel crime remains prevalent.
"I'm likely the first mayor in the history of Chicago to wake up in one of the most disinvested communities in Chicago, where trauma and violence has been pervasive − and at the same time we are experiencing a decrease in violence," the 49-year-old mayor told USA TODAY.
"So I recognize the work has not necessarily caught up with people's feelings, but it doesn't take away the work that we have done," he said.
In Chicago, for instance, Johnson's administration made a $40 million investment in July aimed at modernizing homeless shelters. He also touts other initiatives, such as the Peacekeepers Program, a $34.5 million state-funded effort that trains residents to help de-escalate community conflicts.
Johnson said he will do everything possible "to ensure that our constitutional rights are protected" and hinted at legal action if Trump follows through on his threat against the Windy City.
"We have to stand firm and stand up to the tyrannical reign of this tragic president," he said.
Crime was also down in L.A. when Trump ordered the National Guard there to help quell anti-deportation protests in June. The city is at a 60-year low in homicides, and gang violence is down.
The guard deployment to L.A. was "completely unnecessary," Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said in an interview.
"In Los Angeles, we had 4,000 national guardsmen and women in our city, who had absolutely nothing to do. About 100 of them were used to guard two buildings, maybe 200, out of 4,000, and the rest sat around doing nothing, playing video games and missing work, school and their family.'
Whether Trump can replicate the deployments could rest on the outcome of a case that's currently before a California court. The state is suing Trump over his National Guard deployment.
Polling shows that when it comes to allegations of executive overreach, at least, the public is on local officials' side.
A Quinnipiac poll taken in late June found that voters disapproved 55% to 43% of Trump's decision to deploy the National Guard in Los Angeles.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Crime is down 20% in Chicago. Why is Trump threatening to invade?