Stablecoins Surge Underscores Treasury Market Shift

Arabian Post

4 days ago

Stablecoins are processing roughly $33 trillion in yearly volume—around 20 times that of PayPal and three times Visa—while amassing $128 billion in U.S. Treasuries, placing these issuers among the top 20 holders of American debt and ahead of major nations such as Germany and Saudi Arabia.
Data from Andreessen Horowitz's crypto arm shows that over 1 percent of the total U.S. dollar supply is now tokenised on blockchains. Major institutions, including Citi, project that by 2030 stablecoins could accumulate up to $3.7 trillion in Treasury holdings. While Ethereum and Tron currently underpin most of this infrastructure, emerging platforms such as Solana, Arbitrum and Base are gaining traction. Notably, on-chain data reveals that transactional activity in stablecoins appears largely decoupled from broader cryptocurrency trading volumes, indicative of growing real-world adoption. Today, these assets enable sub-second, sub-cent payments—positioning them as serious contenders to onboard the next billion users into the crypto economy.
Market analysts warn that growing stablecoin-backed Treasury holdings may shift demand dynamics for U.S. government debt. One study from academia found that by the end of the first quarter of 2025, Tether held roughly $98.5 billion in Treasury bills—equating to 1.6 percent of total outstanding bills. The research estimates that this level of demand has directly driven down one-month Treasury yields by approximately 24 basis points, indicating that stablecoin issuance is already influencing funding costs and potentially easing liquidity pressures.
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Coinciding with this shift is a legislative push in Washington. A bill nearing Congressional approval would require issuers to fully back stablecoins with liquid assets, such as U.S. dollars and short-term Treasuries, and mandate monthly disclosures. Proponents suggest such regulation would reinforce investor trust, legitimize the sector and bolster U.S. debt demand. According to Reuters, Tether and Circle already hold a combined $166 billion in Treasuries—amounts that may increase further under binding legal frameworks.
Financial authorities have offered mixed views. Moody's warns that large-scale liquidation driven by plunging confidence in stablecoin issuers could destabilise Treasury prices and spill over into broader fixed-income markets. Conversely, policymakers hope that expanded stablecoin activity could facilitate smoother funding for the Treasury, especially if issuers pivot toward demand for short-term debt like bills.
Macro strategies are duly noted. Vanguard's rates chief suggests that sustained demand from digital currency custodians might spur the Treasury to favour issuing bills over long-term bonds, which could rebalance maturity profiles. Meanwhile, Bitwise's investment head argues that this growing digital demand could reinforce the dollar's position as the global reserve currency.
Infrastructure diversification within stablecoins is evolving. Ethereum and Tron continue to dominate, but high-throughput chains like Solana, Arbitrum and Google-backed Base are attracting developers and users aiming to benefit from faster, cheaper payments. The presence of real-world transactions—such as merchant and remittance use cases—underscores that stablecoins are transcending crypto-speculative flows, with sub-cent fees and near-instant settlement now commonplace features.
Emerging risks centre on financial-system vulnerability. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee cautioned that a significant diversion of deposits into stablecoins could dampen demand for Treasuries and potentially curb lending by commercial banks. Money-market managers remain vigilant, with some estimating that stablecoins must scale further before triggering systemic instability.
Proponents counter that regulated stablecoins may alleviate pressures in the Treasury issuance process, with digital platforms absorbing demand in lieu of traditional buyers. Early legislative frameworks could incentivise these issuers to prefer bills over longer-duration instruments, helping to smooth fiscal financing.
Stablecoins are redefining the interface between digital currency networks and the time‑tested Treasury market, leaving policymakers to navigate a complex balance between innovation, stability and monetary control.