Why Musk is so dangerous to Trump

Politico

20 hours ago

POLLING PROBLEMS — Donald Trump says he is surprised and disappointed with Elon Musk over the messy public meltdown of their partnership. He also should be wary.
It's not Musk's ownership of one of the most influential social media platforms that should give the president pause. Nor is it the billionaire tech mogul's status as the world's richest man, with a recent history of bankrolling Republican causes.
It's Musk's stratospheric popularity with the Republican base, as revealed in the polls.
Musk is not about to overtake Trump himself as the dominant figure in the party, to be clear. But the jilted former 'special government employee' is uniquely suited to become a chaos agent who could terrorize the GOP — potentially wreaking havoc on Trump's legislative agenda and the party's midterm election plans.
Musk's tenure leading the Department of Government Efficiency captured the GOP's imagination, even if it ended ingloriously. While Democrats and independents quickly soured on Musk's leadership, Republicans are still enthralled.
In the most recent Economist/YouGov Poll, 76 percent of Republicans viewed Musk favorably, compared to just 18 percent who viewed him unfavorably. A late April New York Times/Siena College poll placed his favorability rating among Republicans at 77 percent.
Despite the furor over his slashing budgetary cuts, the scrutiny for DOGE's secretive approach and the criticism for failing to deliver on his initial promises of $1 or $2 trillion in savings, Musk's popularity with the GOP base has stayed fairly consistent.
That may change after Musk's scorched earth break-up with Trump, but the odds aren't great. Musk's standing within the GOP has remained remarkably high since the beginning of the Trump administration — over 70 percent in most polls. That makes him far more popular than House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and almost everyone else in the party.
The only national Republicans more popular than Musk? Trump and his vice president, JD Vance. Trump's approval rating within the party is 87 percent, according to the Economist/YouGov poll. Vance's favorability rating is 80 percent.
In part, that's because the grassroots have been deep believers in Musk's DOGE mission from the start. Nearly 90 percent of the party supports cutting the size of government. A similar share believes DOGE has been effective at cutting government spending, reports a recent Harvard-Harris poll.
The Trump-era GOP is a party where staffers feel free to publicly attack principals, where elected officials regularly attack each other for deviations from MAGA orthodoxy and where the unofficial mantra is Trump's 'fight, fight, fight.' Yet for days after Musk's initial broadsides against the 'big, beautiful bill,' no one — not even Trump, who's known for nuking even the mildest of critics — laid a glove on Musk.
The silence was a tacit acknowledgement of a new apex predator in the political and media ecosystem, a Godzilla to Trump's King Kong.
The stature accorded by Musk's DOGE portfolio, its alignment with traditional Republican values surrounding government spending and budget deficit reduction, his limitless wealth and social media megaphone make him a uniquely dangerous rival, not just for Trump but for the party as a whole. He is part William Hearst and part Howard Hughes, not so much a threat to win the party's affection from Trump as he is a potential bomb that could blow up the party's plans.
Musk boasts his own base of support that exists outside traditional partisan boundaries, particularly marked by the parasocial relationship young men have with him. That makes him a danger to the fragile coalition Republicans relied on in 2024.
The president still retains his party's loyalty and deep affection. But Musk knows MAGA's pressure points. He's been in the room where MAGA happened, on stage at the rallies, present for the Cabinet dog-and-pony shows.
The old axiom about never picking fights with those who buy ink by the barrel applies here: It's a bad idea to feud with a tycoon who can not only deplatform you, but trash you to his 220 million followers.
There are limits to Musk's reach — his bruising, polarizing run atop DOGE made him a pariah on the left and a political liability in a general election context. But his ability to dominate the attention economy makes him uniquely suited to upend Trump's agenda on Capitol Hill and Republican efforts to hold on to Congress in 2026.
Like Trump, Musk learned fast about politics. When he embarked on his crusade to sink the sweeping tax-cut package, he recognized the precise language to employ to cut through the noise and provoke a reaction from the GOP base — 'a disgusting abomination,' he called it, '[a] massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill.'
Musk also knew exactly how to trigger the president. He picked at the impeachment scab, suggested Trump couldn't have won the White House without his help and predicted Trump's tariffs will cause a recession. Musk went straight for the jugular by suggesting the president's name appears in records of the investigation into the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein; of course, it's already public that Trump and others have been referenced in court documents related to the case and Trump has not been accused of wrongdoing. But Musk fueled the GOP base's penchant for conspiracy theories by claiming records 'have not been made public.'
It's a page ripped straight out of Trump's playbook, timed to perfection just as MAGA adherents are growing restless with the Justice Department over its failure to deliver evidence of 'deep state' involvement in one of the leading conspiracies animating the far right.
Musk also managed to roll a grenade into the Capitol, where he's already undermined GOP congressional leadership by blasting them by name, and emboldened hardliners who were likely to be steamrolled. His potential for mischief remains considerable even in the event of a personal truce with Trump since the megabill, if it passes the Senate, still must make it back through the House.
If it seems like the GOP cavalry has been slow to aid Trump so far, that's because Musk strikes fear into officeholders who can easily envision him funding primary challenges and hounding them on social media. And it's not just the individual electeds who have cause for concern. Musk on Thursday floated the idea of creating a new political party 'that actually represents the 80% in the middle' in an online X poll.
In less than 24 hours, more than 5 million votes had been cast.
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What'd I Miss?
— GOP prays for peace in the Trump-Musk war: Republicans are hoping for a détente between Donald Trump and Elon Musk after Thursday's blowup, warning that the fight between the two men could distract from the president's agenda and derail Congress' 'Big Beautiful Bill.' 'I just hope it resolves quickly, for the sake of the country,' Speaker Mike Johnson told CNBC's 'Squawk Box' this morning. POLITICO reported Thursday night that White House aides were looking to broker a peace between the two men and were planning on scheduling a call between the two camps.
— Kilmar Abrego Garcia is back in U.S. custody after being illegally deported and will now face criminal charges: Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Salvadoran native whose deportation by the Trump administration was declared illegal by the Supreme Court and generated a national furor, is back in U.S. custody and will face federal human trafficking charges in Tennessee. Abrego Garcia was secretly indicted by a federal grand jury in Nashville last month on two felony charges: transporting undocumented immigrants and conspiring with others to do so. The charges stem from a 2022 traffic stop in Tennessee, when police found Abrego Garcia at the wheel and nine other men in an SUV, all of whom were Hispanic and lacked identification, according to the indictment.
— DOGE can access sensitive Social Security records, Supreme Court rules: The Department of Government Efficiency can have unimpeded access to sensitive Social Security records for millions of people, the Supreme Court ruled today. The justices granted the Trump administration's emergency request to lift a lower-court order that had blocked a DOGE team assigned to the Social Security Administration from viewing or obtaining personal information in the agency's systems.
— Two House Republicans issue megabill threats as Senate ponders changes: Two House Republicans drew firm red lines today on changes to the House GOP megabill, threatening to vote 'no' if the Senate made any changes whatsoever to key provisions. Rep. Nick LaLota of New York warned GOP senators against lowering the House's $40,000 cap on the state-and-local-tax deduction, while Rep. Chip Roy of Texas vowed to oppose any attempt to delay or otherwise water down the phaseout of clean-energy tax credits provided for in the House-passed megabill.
— White House request for funding clawbacks up in the House next week: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise has officially introduced legislation to enact the White House's so-called rescissions package, which would claw back $9.4 billion that lawmakers have already approved and pave the way for a vote on the chamber floor as soon as Tuesday. The measure, which includes slashing $8.3 billion in foreign aid and $1.1 billion for public broadcasting, will head to the House Rules Committee on Tuesday afternoon. It comes as the 45-day clock ticks down: Congress must act on President Donald Trump's rescissions request by July 18, or the White House will be required to spend the money as directed in law. The rescissions process was created by the decades-old law enacted to block presidents from withholding federal cash that Congress has already approved.
— Stefanik returns to influential House intel committee: Elise Stefanik is finally back on the House Intelligence Committee. This morning, Speaker Mike Johnson added the New York Republican back to the influential spy panel, after months haggling over how to return the GOP star to her coveted committee post. Stefanik was added to the committee under unanimous consent, along with Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.).
AROUND THE WORLD
BACK IN ACTION — In a show of solidarity with Kyiv after the onset of the war in Ukraine, the classical music world canceled Russian concerts, stopped performing seminal works like The Nutcracker and Swan Lake, and dropped performers with public ties to President Vladimir Putin — all part of a broader derussification of the European arts.
Three years later, however, some of Russia's biggest stars are quietly returning to orchestras and stages across Europe. That's a victory for Moscow, just as critics say it is hoping to end its global isolation using Russian high art and culture as a weapon of soft power.
Facing the Russian returnees, Ukraine and the EU are both calling for the continent's prestigious opera houses and theater companies to hold the line against Moscow.
Ukrainian Culture Minister Mykola Tochytskyi said Europe's arts scene should 'think twice' before welcoming Russian performers back into the fold, calling it 'very risky' to reintegrate Russian culture while Moscow's full-scale invasion grinds on.
'When you have a Russian active cultural action in [your] country, it's immediately about disinformation and about preparing some kind of act of aggression,' he said. 'This is our own experience.'
European Culture Commissioner Glenn Micallef concurred, telling POLITICO: 'European stages should not be giving any space to those who are supporting this war of aggression against Ukraine.'
MARK YOUR CALENDARS — The Netherlands faces a snap election on Oct. 29 after far-right chief Geert Wilders pulled his party out of the government earlier this week and toppled the coalition.
Dutch Interior Minister Judith Uitermark confirmed the date in a post on X today.
Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), the liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), and the Labour-Green-Left alliance (PvdA-GL) are tightly bunched in the no-longer-hypothetical election race, according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls.
Nightly Number
RADAR SWEEP
LOW TO HIGH — In Colorado, psilocybin — the active ingredient in 'magic mushrooms' — is having a boom. And it's being used for all kinds of mood enhancements and changes. For cancer patients, clinical studies are proving to be effective in improving mood and outlook. But it also has properties that have people struggling with all kinds of other health and mental health problems interested. Robert Sanchez, who wrote about the drug's increasing popularity in Colorado for 5280 Magazine, started to experiment with it himself during a time of difficulty in his own life. Read about Sanchez's own experience — and the experience of others who have used the drug for health benefits — here.
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