Poll suggests GOP budget bill faces nearly 2-to-1 opposition, with many unaware

Boston Globe

11 hours ago

Advertisement
Since the House's passage of its version of the bill, Senate Republicans have scrambled to emphasize the legislation's economic benefits to voters and pass their version by Trump's deadline of July 4. But most people are not very aware of the legislation, and among those who have heard about the bill, it is unpopular. About two-thirds of the public say they have heard either little or nothing about the bill. Those who have heard a great deal or a good amount about it oppose it by a roughly 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 33 percent, with nearly half strongly in opposition.
Get Starting Point
A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday.
Enter Email
Sign Up
Opinions on specific aspects of the bill — which includes tax cuts, increased spending on border security, cuts to social safety net programs such as Medicaid, and rollbacks on spending to curb climate change — however, are nuanced, ranging from very popular to very unpopular.
Advertisement
A clear majority of Americans support increasing the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500 (72 percent) and 65 percent support eliminating taxes on earnings from tips. But 66 percent of Americans broadly oppose cutting federal funding for food assistance to low-income households compared with 23 percent who support this, while 61 percent oppose spending $45 billion on migrant detention centers compared with 24 percent.
About 51 percent oppose ending tax breaks for producing solar, wind, and geothermal energy compared with 31 percent who support it; and 52 percent are against spending roughly $50 billion to complete a wall on the US-Mexico border compared with 36 percent in favor. Other recent polls have found higher support for a border wall when the question was asked without a price tag.
Among the most divisive components of the House-passed package are the size and scope of
cuts to entitlement programs. To deliver on some of Trump's pricey initiatives, the Republican bill plans to significantly cut spending on Medicaid as well as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and other safety net initiatives.
Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and Josh Hawley of Missouri have raised alarms about far-reaching changes to Medicaid and its impact on rural health care facilities in their states.
The Post-Ipsos poll finds most Americans agree on new work requirements, with 52 percent saying they support requiring low-income childless adults to prove they are working or disabled to get health insurance through Medicaid, compared with 33 percent who oppose. But Americans are less comfortable with the prospect of people losing coverage under tighter eligibility rules: 44 percent say it's unacceptable for about 8 million people to lose health insurance as a result of these requirements as well as more frequent eligibility verification and state restrictions, while 32 percent say this is acceptable. When the new requirements are not specified, 63 percent say it's unacceptable for 8 million people to lose Medicaid coverage.
Advertisement
The weak acceptability when loss of coverage is mentioned signals an uphill messaging battle for GOP senators, as nonpartisan analyses of the bill show that some parts, such as cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, would harm low-income households financially more than the tax cuts would boost their finances.
Opinions on extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts are mixed. A 71 percent majority supports extending tax cuts for individuals with incomes under $100,000, as do 53 percent when asked about individuals with incomes between $100,000 and $200,000. But support drops to 29 percent for extending tax cuts for individuals with income above $400,000 and to 30 percent for corporations.
Nearly 7 in 10 Americans, including similar majorities of Democrats and Republicans, support raising taxes on individuals making $2.5 million or more, an idea that Trump pitched in May but that House Republicans left out of the bill.
Republican leadership, including House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Senate majority leader John Thune of South Dakota, maintains that Trump's legislation would reduce the national debt, but that budget math has yet to add up — as some fiscal hawks have pointed out.
According to analyses from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which the GOP has disputed and sought to frame as partisan and inaccurate, the bill is estimated to add $3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. A 63 percent majority of the public says that increase is unacceptable, while 13 percent say it is acceptable, and 24 percent are unsure. Many Republicans balk at the debt increase: 47 percent say a $3 trillion debt increase is unacceptable, while 25 say it is acceptable.
Advertisement
The bill has a narrow path to passage in the upper chamber, but
Trump and Thune have repeatedly reiterated that 'failure is not an option.'
The Post-Ipsos poll was conducted online June 6-10 among 1,167 US adults. The sample was drawn through the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, an ongoing panel of US households recruited by mail using random sampling methods. Overall results have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.